Sunday, July 25, brings an 11-game main slate with a limited number of aces and some mid-afternoon rain on the East Coast. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for pitchers and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks, Sunday, July 25
Yahoo Stack of the Day: Cincinnati Reds vs. RHP Johan Oviedo — 45.7 implied runs
It is going to be a warm afternoon at the Great American Ballpark, with game-time temperatures in the mid-to upper 80s, heavy humidity in the 70-80% range and a slight 6 to 8 mph breeze blowing out to left field. Johan Oviedo has been replacement level at best as he continues to acclimate to MLB hitters. He has a solid slider and limits home runs (just 10 allowed in 82.2 innings). Unfortunately his 11.7% walk rate is too high, his 16.3% strikeout rate is too low, and he tends to find himself in too many dicey situations with runners on base.
While the Reds did not produce as hoped last night, Jesse Winker ($11) ended his 18-game homer drought in style, going 3-for-4 with a double, a home run and four RBIs. Joey Votto ($17) made his one hit count with a solo homer, and leadoff man Jonathan India ($18) was 2-for-3 with two runs scored, so at least the production was concentrated in the key members of the stack.
This trio works once again on Sunday, along with Aristides Aquino ($9) and Tyler Naquin ($7), who are incredibly cheap with massive power upside. While Naquin is always a pinch-hit risk if a southpaw comes into the game, the Cardinals have just three in their bullpen and all have pitched since Friday, so they may turn to a right-hander first. Eugenio Suarez is lost at the plate, with a .172 average that is over 100 points below his career mark. However, he is at least hitting for power, and at $10 he is far from a budget buster.
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Afternoon Slate
Detroit Tigers at LHP Daniel Lynch — 5.4 implied runs
Depending on how popular the Tigers end up today, gamers can always pivot to the Astros against Taylor Hearn, who likely will be going just two innings before giving way to Michael Foltynewicz, who leads MLB with 31 home runs allowed.
The Royals will send out Daniel Lynch today. Lynch broke camp with the Royals this year, but after eight innings with a 15.75 ERA and 2.88 WHIP in three outings, he was sent back to the minors for additional seasoning. Though he was not lights out, he did show enough to earn another cup of coffee.
Though the back half of the Detroit lineup is awful, they have some serviceable hitters. Jonathan Schoop is likely to be moved at the deadline, but he has power and the green light to swing from his heels. Somehow Eric Haase has a .444 ISO in 75 career at-bats against lefties, and the streak deserves respect. Robbie Grossman should see five at-bats as the leadoff man, and as a switch-hitter he will have the platoon advantage all game. Finally, Jeimer Candelario and Miguel Cabrera are in the mix to round out full stacks. Temperatures will be touching 90 during the game and humidity will be 55 to 60%, which is conducive for longballs.
Late Slate
Oakland Athletics at LHP Marco Gonzales — 4.5 implied runs
Marco Gonzales has a 5.69 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP across 12 starts, which is his worst production since coming to Seattle in 2017. He has been crushed by righties, allowing 13 of his 16 home runs and a .324/.404/.682 triple slash to opposite-handed hitters. Making this an even tougher matchup is that the projected righties in the Oakland lineup have all had success in the past against Gonzales.
Despite seeming lost at the plate this season, Matt Chapman still has elite power against lefties, with a .209 ISO in 128 plate appearances. The A’s have been shuffling Chapman and Ramon Laureano in the lineup (.196 ISO, 101 plate appearances), though both are viable targets. Mark Canha has thrived as the leadoff man, and somehow switch-hitting Jed Lowrie is still getting just enough production to warrant being the cleanup hitter. Matt Olson has a .397 ISO in 133 lefty/lefty matchups this season. As a bonus, the mediocre Mariners bullpen will be coming with right-handed pitchers after Gonzales since Anthony Misiewicz is the lone southpaw and he has pitched twice in the last three days.
Spotlight Pitchers
Top Target: RHP Yu Darvish at Miami Marlins — 3.7 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $52 | FanDuel $10,300 | DraftKings $10,500
Though Yu Darvish has been uneven in his three July starts, the Marlins provide a get-right spot on Sunday. Miami has a bottom-five wRC+ against right-handed pitchers and have a 25% strikeout rate, which is the sixth highest. Their .138 ISO is also the worst power number in the league.
Even though it feels like Darvish is having a poor season, his 3.09 ERA ranks 17th and his 1.00 WHIP is 11th among qualified starters. He is still a strikeout artist as well, with 10.4 per nine innings. There is no need to get cute today at this position.
Secondary Target: RHP Aaron Nola vs. Atlanta Braves — 4.2 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $41 | FanDuel $9,100 | DraftKings $10,300
Atlanta may have used up all their runs for the series after plating 15 last night against the Phillies. Six came courtesy of starter Vincent Velasquez, who is on the opposite end of the spectrum from Aaron Nola.
It is concerning that Nola has allowed multiple home runs in four of his last seven starts, but he is still piling up the strikeouts. While the Braves are still trying to hang onto hopes of a wild card berth, they are eight games behind the Padres and 10.5 away from the Dodgers. They have acquired Joc Pederson and Stephen Vogt to help fill the offensive void left by Ronald Acuna Jr., but that is like putting a band aid on the Titanic. Today’s projected starting lineup has a 27.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the last two-plus seasons. Nola is a viable tournament pivot from Darvish on Sunday.
Wild Card: LHP Caleb Smith at Chicago Cubs— 5.1 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $37 | FanDuel $7,000 | DraftKings $7,400
This is playing with fire, but there is a decent chance some of the potential trade chips for the Cubs get Sunday off with the deadline less than a week away. Heading into the All-Star Break Caleb Smith lasted one paltry inning against the Dodgers, allowing three home runs and nine earned runs. In his last start against Pittsburgh he ceded just two runs across 6.2 innings with a solid seven strikeouts. Smith is a lottery ticket, but that is exactly the thing to look for in Sunday’s top-heavy tournaments.
Final Thoughts for the Sunday, July 25, MLB DFS Slate
This should be a fun one for tournaments with so many shaky pitchers taking the mound. Keep an eye on the East Coast weather, as there is a chance for some afternoon precipitation in Baltimore, Boston, New York and Philadelphia. Currently none of these games appear to be at risk of a postponement, though they may wrap up an inning or two short depending on what transpires with the local weather systems.
