Wednesday, Aug. 4, brings the first getaway day of the week and some split-slate action. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for pitchers and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks, Wednesday, Aug. 4
Yahoo Stack of the Day: New York Yankees vs. RHP Matt Harvey — 6.0 implied runs
In what is clearly an aberration, Matt Harvey has not allowed an earned run in his last 18.2 innings, and the last home run against him was 29 innings ago on June 25. Harvey has been incredibly lucky in this stretch, as he has a 7.7% swinging strike rate and 83% contact rate. Regression is coming, and it could easily arrive today in Yankee Stadium.
The Yahoo salary algorithm is providing some significant salary savings with the Yankee hitters today. D.J. LeMahieu ($12) leads, and Giancarlo Stanton ($11) and Gary Sanchez ($11) are right behind him. Recent acquisitions Anthony Rizzo ($20) and Joey Gallo ($18) seem spendy by comparison, though they too are undervalued for the matchup against Harvey. Finally, Aaron Judge ($16) has a .368 wOBA and .236 ISO in same-handed matchups, and his power rivals anyone in the league. The Yankees will be a nice countermove against the Coors Field crowd tonight.
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Cincinnati Reds vs. LHP Charlie Barnes — 5.8 implied runs
Rookie Charlie Barnes is going to be heading into the buzz saw in Great American Ballpark this afternoon. Barnes is a soft-tossing southpaw who has limited power in the minors, but he has just 82.1 innings at Triple-A. Thus far he is surviving with an above-average changeup, but the rest of his offerings are pedestrian at best.
While Jonathan India, Kyle Farmer and Tyler Stephenson are not exactly household names, they all have above-average power in righty/lefty matchups. Eugenio Suarez is batting nearly 75 points below his career average, but when he does connect it is for power — 34 of his 67 hits have been for extra bases. Aristides Aquino is another all-or-nothing hitter for the Reds, but his prodigious power is desirable even from the bottom of the order. Also look to lefties Jesse Winker and Joey Votto, who are adequate in same-handed matchups. The Twins have only one rested southpaw in the bullpen ,so they will likely be following Barnes with one of their righties.
Evening Slate
Atlanta Braves at LHP J.A. Happ — 4.6 implied runs
Tonight will be the St. Louis debut for J.A. Happ. July was particularly rough for Happ, allowing at least three runs in four starts and multiple home runs in three. Across these 27.1 innings he had a 9.22 ERA. 1.93 WHIP and 2.3 home runs allowed per nine innings.
New Atlanta acquisitions Jorge Soler and Adam Duvall profile well against Happ, and they are coming in at favorable salaries. Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley and Dansby Swanson should be core plays in Atlanta stacks. Also, do not overlook Freddie Freeman, who has a long history of success throughout his career in lefty/lefty matchups.
Spotlight Pitchers
Top Target: RHP Max Scherzer vs. Houston Astros — 3.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $53 | FanDuel $10,500 | DraftKings $9,100
Tonight Max Scherzer is scheduled to make his Dodgers debut against the Astros. While Houston is an excellent offense, this game is in a National League park, so they will be without the designated hitter. Though Scherzer tends to allow home runs with his propensity for challenging hitters, they usually come with the bases empty. Additionally, his 11.9 K/9 is the third best among qualified starters.
Secondary Target: RHP Lucas Giolito vs. Kansas City Royals — 3.5 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $50 | FanDuel $9,200 | DraftKings $10,600
Lucas Giolito was excellent in five July starts. Across 31.1 innings he allowed just one home run, and in his last four outings he has allowed five total runs. All told he has a 3.16 ERA and 1.21 baserunners per inning in this stretch. This will be the fourth time he has faced the Royals, though last week he held them to only one run in six innings while striking out seven. The back half of the Kansas City lineup is barely replacement level, and the White Sox are 5-2 favorites to win Wednesday.
Wild Card: RHP Shohei Ohtani at Texas Rangers — 3.5 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $33 | FanDuel $8,100 | DraftKings $7,000
Shohei Ohtani had his last start skipped after he was hit on his right thumb with a foul ball while in the dugout. All signs point to him taking the mound tonight, and he has been seeing regular time as the designated hitter over the last several days, so there is no reason to think this minor issue will have an adverse impact. In three July starts Ohtani tallied 20 innings, a 1.35 ERA, a minuscule 0.70 WHIP, 17 strikeouts, one walk and one home run. The roof is scheduled to be closed in Texas tonight, and the anemic Rangers offense is projected for a paltry 3.5 runs.
Final Thoughts for the Wednesday, Aug. 4 MLB DFS Slate
Wednesday weather looks good across the board with no particularly troublesome games. This should be a fun day of wall-to-wall baseball, and the main slate is particularly enticing with a Coors Field game and several subpar pitchers drawing starts.
