Tuesday, Sept. 28, has a 13-game main slate, with Yahoo taking the unique approach of going with an 8:05 p.m. ET start with an eight-game set. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for pitchers and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks, Tuesday, Sept. 28
Yahoo Stack of the Day: Chicago White Sox vs. RHP Riley O’Brien — 5.2 implied runs
Chicago was a tremendous success in this space yesterday. It helps that they will be facing a marginal prospect in Riley O’Brien, who is making his first start in the majors. Walks are an issue fir O’Brien, and he allows a fair amount of power. He profiles best as an opener or multi-inning reliever, though he is fully stretched out and ready to be slotted into the rotation for Luis Castillo.
Eloy Jimenez ($11) paid off handsomely with a home run yesterday, and he is still at a ridiculously low salary. Gavin Sheets ($10) and Andrew Vaughn ($7) will likely be at the bottom of the order, though they are excellent discount dandies and provide tremendous salary cap flexibility. Yasmani Grandal ($25) is commanding an apex salary, but it is quite palatable when including the cheaper White Sox in a full stack. Plus, gamers are so conditioned to punt the catcher slot that they refuse to roll with one of the most complete hitters in the game.
Tim Anderson ($20) got Monday off, but he is expected to resume his role at the top of the order. Jose Abreu ($19) is at an appealing salary and profiles well against O’Brien. The deep lineup and mix of salaries make the White Sox a team to stack in a myriad of ways, so even though they are projecting to be popular, there are places to find differentiation.
Boston Red Sox at LHP Bruce Zimmermann — 6.0 implied runs
There are roving showers in the D.C. Metro area, which could impact Baltimore, though not enough to postpone the game. Bruce Zimmermann is slated to start after missing the middle of the season with an ankle injury and bicep tendonitis. In a pair of rehab starts in the minors he threw 45 and 50 pitches, which is around what he will likely do Tuesday before giving way to the shaky Orioles bullpen. The relievers have logged the third-most innings in the league, and their collective 5.67 ERA is half a run higher than the next-worst team.
It truly is hard to go wrong with any of the Red Sox tonight. Hunter Renfroe is mashing lefties, should be near the top of the order and will likely see Zimmermann twice. There is only one southpaw in the Orioles bullpen, so Renfroe and Enrique Hernandez will lose the platoon advantage but should still stay in the game. Renfroe would be a pinch-hit risk if Kyle Schwarber is coming off the bench. If it is Alex Verdugo on the bench, it is not as much of a risk. Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts are very much in play, as is Bobby Dalbec with his power and rock-bottom salary on DraftKings and FanDuel.
San Francisco Giants vs. RHP Luke Weaver — 5.0 implied runs
It is fun having Luke Weaver back in the mix because he has just enough name recognition that gamers generally do not want to pick on him. Weaver does a decent job limiting walks, but he lives on the edge of danger as a heavy fly-ball pitcher. In his last two starts, he has allowed just 12 hits and one walk in 10.2 innings, but four of those hits were home runs. The Giants have the second-most home runs in the league this season, and their recent ballpark renovations have made the stadium more pitching neutral than pitching friendly.
Brandon Belt suffered a thumb fracture after being hit by a pitch on a bunt attempt Sunday, which takes a key hitter out of the lineup. However, that also should keep gamers away from this stack on the main slate. Kris Bryant, Buster Posey and LaMonte Wade Jr. are the trio to target. Brandon Crawford will likely slot into the cleanup role with Belt on the sidelines. Mike Yastrzemski and Evan Longoria are fine options at the bottom of the order as one-offs for their appealing salaries or as part of a Giants stack.
Top MLB DFS Picks Target: RHP Logan Webb vs. Arizona Diamondbacks — 4.1 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $48 | FanDuel $9,000 | DraftKings $8,900
Pitching is loaded tonight, so there are plenty of options. Logan Webb has been phenomenal this season, with a 3.04 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He has been nearly unhittable at home, with a .105 batting average against and a miniscule 1.76 ERA. Arizona is the second-worst team in the league against right-handed pitching, creating runs 22% less efficiently than league average.
Secondary MLB DFS Picks Target: RHP Adam Wainwright vs. Milwaukee Brewers — 3.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo N/A | FanDuel $9,300 | DraftKings $9,000
It is a tough call between Adam Wainwright and opposing pitcher Brandon Woodruff. Ultimately the 10% to 15% discount for Wainwright is the deciding factor. Neither is an option on Yahoo with their late start, so look to Walker Buehler against the Padres or Yusei Kikuchi against Oakland. Woodruff and the Brewers cannot improve their playoff positioning, so it is likely that this will be a maintenance start for Woodruff in the 85- to 90-pitch range, or around six innings. While he has been in the National League Cy Young conversation all season, Woodruff has slipped back to the pack, and the postseason is now more important than individual awards.
St. Louis is looking like the team of destiny, as it has won 16 straight and is about to clinch the second Wild Card slot with its next win or losses by Cincinnati and Philadelphia. Wainwright has logged 200 innings and is besting his career averages in every relevant category. While he was knocked around by the Brewers in his last start, do not let that dissuade from rolling with him tonight.
Wild Card MLB DFS Picks Target: LHP Chris Sale at Baltimore Orioles — 3.3 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo N/A | FanDuel $10,000 | DraftKings $9,400
Chris Sale is a bit of a wild card tonight, as there is no discount considering he is likely going to top out around 90 pitches as he continues to work his way back into a full load. However, considering the Red Sox are nearly 3-to-1 favorites, there is a good chance that Sale will be on the record for the win if he completes the fifth inning. In this same matchup last Friday, Sale allowed one solo home run in five innings, and while he only had one strikeout, he has 39 in the 35 innings pitched this season.
Final Thoughts for the Tuesday, Sept. 28 MLB DFS Picks Slate
There are quite a few good pitchers taking the mound, though not all of them are in slam-dunk spots. There is a little weather to watch in Baltimore and New York but nothing that should cause anything more than a delay.
MLB Player Props: Home Run Props & Strikeout Props Tool For MLB Starters Today (Free Trial)
MLB DFS Showdown/Single-Game Ownership Projections
MLB Power Rankings + Sports Betting Model (Free Trial)
MLB DFS Projections for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo
Awesemo’s MLB DFS Rankings
MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, Home Runs, Optimal Picks | Today, 10/16/21
MLB DFS Main Slate Ownership Projections
MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool