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Greetings Gamers! We have one last hurrah with Coors Field.
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Cincinnati Reds at LHP Steven Brault – 5.5 implied runs
The wheels have really come off the wagon for LHP Steven Brault. Over his last three starts (at MIL, at CHC and vs. STL) he has averaged 86 pitches, yet lasted a total of 13.2 innings. He has ceded six home runs and a 12.50 ERA with a 2.05 WHIP in those games.
We can focus on some specific players for the Reds who are likely to do most of the damage. Eugenio Suarez, Aristides Aquino and Phillip Ervin all boast light tower power against southpaws. This is an excellent contrarian move against The Masses who will be targeting the Coors Field Extravaganza.
Milwaukee Brewers at RHP Antonio Senzatela – 6.0 implied runs
The Brew Crew has clinched a Wild Card spot, but they are just a game behind the St Louis Cardinals for the NL Central title. Cubs manager Joe Maddon said he will be resting a lot of dinged up starters, which has Milwaukee bitter. So there is your narrative – angry Brewers in Coors Field (beer narrative for extra incentive).
Right now it looks like RHP Antonio Senzatela will be starting, but this analysis still stands if it ends up being RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez. On the season Senzatela has made 24 starts and he has a 10-11 record. I just want to point out the double-digit win total for fun. His stat line is 118.2 innings, with a 6.90 ERA, 1.76 ERA and 18 home runs with just 70 punchouts. His 50ish GB% over the last two seasons help keep the home runs in check, but he still allows waaaaaay too many baserunners.
Both righties and lefties have had success against Senzatela, so we do not need to be picky. Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas and Ryan Braun are the trio to target. If you want a full stack, it is going to get spendy, but look to Keston Hiura, Trent Grisham and Lorenzo Cain. Eric Thames is dinged up so he may not be in the lineup.
Oakland Athletics at LHP Justus Sheffield – 5.5 implied runs
Keep in mind that it is going to be in the upper-50s in Seattle at first pitch. LHP Justus Sheffield has not shown much upside, but he is only 23-years old. The Mariners received him as part of the James Paxton deal this offseason. Over his last 119 lefty/righty matchups he has a solid 24.4 K%, but the .392 wOBA, .196 ISO and 1.02 HR/9 are not great. Over a small 40 matchup sample size he has a .366 wOBA, .233 ISO and a 2.00 HR/9 to lefties.
The Athletics have a ton of right-handed power with Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien and Ramon Laureano. We could see Khris Davis (illness) and Mark Canha (sore groin) back in the lineup on Friday. Matt Olson excels in lefty/lefty matchups and along with Chad Pinder and Jurickson Profar are solid differentiation options for the nightcap.
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Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
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