Fourteen-game Friday brings a huge MLB DFS slate with massive prize pool GPPs on both DraftKings and FanDuel this evening. The slate is well timed given a large pool of excellent starting pitching options from which to choose. There are excellent arms at a variety of prices on both sites, which should create an incredibly diverse pool of entries. There are a few very good-looking spots against lesser pitchers, but many teams will be facing their opponents’ two-man in the rotation at worst, making for an interesting board that requires taking some shots. Putting together a highly diverse portfolio of entries and MLB DFS stacks is the approach for GPPs on slate that is this large with so many quality options available.
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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
Be sure to catch the MLB DFS Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock, where we will review all the games, emphasizing finding the best stacks and top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.
Home Run Ratings
Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman — 4.50
Baltimore Orioles: Austin Hays — 9.52
Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers — 11.90
Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu — 6.23
Cincinnati Reds: Aristides Aquino — 15.66
Cleveland Indians: Bobby Bradley — 9.71
Colorado Rockies: Trevor Story — 7.34
Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop — 11.04
Houston Astros: Yuli Gurriel — 6.00
Kansas City Royals: Carlos Santana — 16.54
Los Angeles Angels: Justin Upton — 13.08
Los Angeles Dodgers: Justin Turner — 8.80
Miami Marlins: Isan Diaz — 5.27
Milwaukee Brewers: Willy Adames — 7.54
Minnesota Twins: Miguel Sano — 7.39
New York Mets: Dominic Smith — 10.47
New York Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton — 15.28
Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson — 11.93
Philadelphia Phillies: Bryce Harper — 5.06
Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds — 6.49
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 13.65
San Francisco Giants: Alex Dickerson — 7.47
Seattle Mariners: Mitch Haniger — 9.69
St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler O’Neill — 9.25
Tampa Bay Rays: Ji-man Choi — 8.21
Texas Rangers: Nate Lowe — 13.79
Toronto Blue Jays: Randal Grichuk — 12.65
Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 14.18
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The loaded Friday pitching slate runs at least 10 arms deep for reliable starters, with pitchers landing at a variety of price points, some of which do not match the level of their opponent. By reputation, Gerrit Cole would be the most talented pitcher on this slate, though Freddy Peralta has outperformed him all season and lands at the peak of the Top Pitchers Tool. Zack Wheeler is arguably the best option for depth and a quality start, while Lucas Giolito is in a plus strikeout matchup on the opposite side of Peralta’s game. The slate features excellent discounted options that include Joe Musgrove in what should be a get-right spot against the Marlins, Eduardo Rodriguez against the diminished Yankees lineup and Alex Cobb against the now Cruz-less Twins. Frankie Montas is a lesser pitcher but is in a strong spot against the Mariners, while Tyler Mahle is in an interesting price point that may render him under-owned.
Peralta draws the White Sox in a home start that will see the American League team drop its designated hitter, giving him a bump. Peralta has struck out an excellent 35.1% of opposing hitters this season, completing 98 innings in 17 starts to the tune of a 3.70 xFIP and a 0.90 WHIP. He induces a 14.4% swinging strike rate and has a 30.9% CSW while doing an excellent job limiting quality contact. He is yielding just a 34.8% hard-hit rate and an 87.5 mph average exit velocity against, with a 6.5% barrel rate. Peralta does walk more hitters than average with an inflated 11.4% rate, but he has largely gotten away with it thanks to his ability to limit power and sit hitters down with the strikeout. The White Sox projected lineup has an overall 23.5% strikeout rate on the season and the active roster is eighth best in baseball with a 22.8% strikeout rate against righties on the season. The White Sox have been very good creating runs in the split as well, coming in 13% ahead of the league average by collective WRC+. Their .164 team ISO is only around average, however, and they have just a 3.22% home run rate that lands in the bottom third of the league in the split. The White Sox’s power upside is limited coming into a matchup against a top-end pitcher who is good at suppressing power, Peralta seems relatively safe as long as he keeps up the strikeouts and limits Chicago’s sequential hitting. He will be popular on both sites tonight, but there is room to roster him given the probability of being a top-two option on DraftKings. On the FanDuel slate, Peralta ranks a few points further down the board and is drawing negative leverage, making him a shakier play.
On the opposite side of the contest, Giolito takes the hill for the White Sox and jumps to the top of the FanDuel board for the strikeout upside. Giolito has struck out 29.2% of hitters over 113 innings in 19 starts this season. He provides both upside and relative security, as well as strong average depth of start. He has a 3.66 xFIP and a 1.11 WHIP on the season, walking 7.3% of hitters while allowing a few too many barreled balls at 8.3%. Giolito yields a 20.7-degree average launch angle but a 36.1% hard-hit rate that lands in the 69th percentile. He has a .366 expected slugging percentage against that stands in the 62nd percentile and he faces a Brewers team that has struggled across the board against righties this season. Milwaukee’s active roster is third worst in baseball with a 25.6% strikeout rate in the split, they have just a .155 team ISO and a 3.46% home run rate that are both slightly below average, while they create runs 12% behind league average by collective WRC+. Giolito is a strong option despite popularity and pricing similar to that of his opponent.
Wheeler has had a career year to this point in the season and finds himself in a multi-way tie for seventh in baseball with 13 quality starts (Walker Buehler leads with 17) and he has been excellent for average depth of start, putting up 125.2 innings in 19 opportunities. Wheeler has pitched to a premium level in the effort, putting up a 30.6% strikeout rate while walking a mere 5.6%. He has a sparkling 2.72 xFIP on the season with a 0.99 WHIP and he has been terrific at limiting quality contact. Wheeler’s 4.5% barrel rate stands in the 89th percentile, his spectacular 28.8% hard-hit rate is in the 95th, while his 84.6 mph average exit velocity against lands in the 97th. Wheeler has a fantastic expected slugging percentage against of just .292. He is a terrific option for taking the bat out of the opposing team’s hands, but the Braves have been good at hitting righties for power this season. The active roster has a collective .186 ISO that sites third in baseball in the split, while their 4.24% home run rate lands fourth. They strike out a fair amount, 24.8% puts them eighth worst in the league and they fall to 3% below average creating runs against righties. Atlanta is notably without Ronald Acuna Jr. but they brought in Joc Pederson to provide left-handed power in the leadoff spot against righties, and they still field a dangerous top five hitters at least. In a price and ownership vacuum, Wheeler makes for a strong play with likely upside despite the matchup, but he will be both expensive and popular on this slate.
Cole faces the blood-rival Red Sox in a game at Fenway Park. After some initial struggles following the baseball sticky stuff drama, Cole has righted the ship in recent outing, posting a complete game three-hit shutout masterpiece with 12 strikeouts against the Astros just before the break, and coming back to whiff 11 of these same Red Sox over six innings of one run baseball in a rainy start in the Bronx last weekend. He has a 34.1% strikeout rate on the season and is walking just 5.2% of hitters. He allows a bit of premium contact, with an 8.2% barrel rate and a 39.9% hard-hit rate, but he is rarely hit for a multi-run homer due to his ability to limit baserunners. Cole has a sharp 2.84 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, 14.3% swinging strike rate and 32.6% CSW. He is one of the best starters in the game, but he is facing a difficult roster that has a collective .190 ISO against right-handed pitching with a 3.93% home run rate and a WRC+ 5% above average. Cole is capable of keeping this lineup down, as he just demonstrated, and he appears under-owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel, making him an interesting target for upside and differentiation in GPPs.
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Washington Nationals
The Nationals are drawing a ton of popularity on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. Washington is relatively inexpensive to roster in stacks, though the two prime stars in the lineup, Trea Turner and Juan Soto, are both priced up significantly. Washington is taking on Orioles starter Jorge Lopez, who is targetable for power and run creation. Lopez has pitched 89.1 innings this season and has just a 20.9% strikeout rate with a bumpy 9.6% walk rate that he combines with a 9.1% barrel rate, an excellent blend for run creation. He also yields a 44.9% hard-hit rate and a 90.3 mph average exit velocity. His one saving grace has been his ability to somewhat limit home run trajectory with just a 6.2-degree average launch angle against, but even that results in just a 1.41 HR/9 mark, which is not good by any means. Lopez has just a 48.2% ground ball rate on the season. This lineup has upside but also significant ownership concentration on the best options. Alcides Escobar has done well getting on base and creating runs in his short 73 plate appearance season to this point; Josh Bell comes at a slight ownership discount on DraftKings, while Ryan Zimmerman and Josh Harrison provide upside for salaries under $3,000 on the site. Harrison will be owned in the single digits and is priced at $3,000 on FanDuel, while Zimmerman remains discounted and will be popular in the mid-teens. The Nationals lineup gets thin quickly, though Gerardo Parra has sneaky pop in the right spot, and Victor Robles is an interesting wrap-around option if he can get on base and swipe a bag before scoring runs ahead of the top of the lineup. Getting to the Nationals is tricky with their heavy public ownership, they will require combinations with lower-owned second stacks and pitching given their pricing they could pair well with an expensive but contrarian Cole.
Kansas City Royals (and Detroit Tigers)
Both the Tigers and Royals look to be in excellent spots for offense, as neither team decided to bring a good pitcher to the mound for this game. The Tigers are highly ranked on the Top Stacks tool, which is rare to see, but they are drawing fairly significant ownership and the team’s lineup remains uninspiring and limited. Even in a good matchup against Kris Bubic, the Tigers are difficult to trust when they are this popular. The Royals, meanwhile, are in a very similar spot taking on Wily Peralta. The Royals will by and large be less popular than their opponents, particularly on DraftKings, and they provide a higher degree of quality with significant upside.
Peralta has has an extremely limited 15.9% strikeout rate and has walked 8.7% while yielding a 7.4% barrel rate, highly productive marks when paired with a 42.6% hard-hit rate. Peralta is very targetable for power and the Royals bats are popping to the top of today’s power index, adding to the appeal. There are professional hitters who fill multiple MLB DFS categories in this lineup, they are interesting to get to in various configurations.
Whit Merrifield leads off at a $5,500 DraftKings salary but just a $3,600 mark across town on the blue site. Somehow that is still the highest price in the Royals lineup on that site. Merrifield has had a good season on the base paths, swiping 25 bases in his 413 plate appearances, though he is slashing .273/.322/.405 and creating runs 3% behind the curve, numbers that are mostly down compared to his averages. Merrifield has just a .131 ISO this season and is behind his typical pace, hitting just eight home runs in the significant sample. Last season he had nine home runs in just 265 plate appearances, posting a .157 ISO and creating runs 6% ahead of the curve. With multi-position eligibility and a discounted salary, Merrifield is drawing popularity on FanDuel, but he is easy to fit into stacks.
Carlos Santana has 15 home runs in 399 plate appearances this season and has a strong on-base skill. He is slashing .242/.361/.408 this season, creating runs 13% better than average by WRC+, but Santana will cost just $2,900 on FanDuel tonight and he will be under 5% ownership on the DraftKings slate. Santana has a strong home run mark in the home run model.
Salvador Perez is priced at just $3,200 on FanDuel, where he will be popular because he is an excellent bat who is worth a far higher price. On DraftKings he is drawing significant ownership for his talent at the position despite a $5,300 price tag. Perez has hit 21 home runs this season, posting a .217 ISO and creating runs 14% better than average. On such a large slate there are probably equivalent one-off options at catcher, however, given the popularity that Perez has projected on the site, but he is very much the go-to option in stacks.
Over 287 plate appearances, Andrew Benintendi has hit 10 home runs and stolen seven bases, slashing .270/.318/.426 and creating runs 2% better than average. Benintendi strikes out just 19.2% of the time, which plays well in stacks that also include Merrifield’s 13.3% mark and Santana’s 15%, this unit puts the ball in play frequently against a pitcher who yields sequential hitting. Benintendi is underpriced and under-owned on both sites.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”07/23/2021″ team=”royals”]
Hunter Dozier brings a lowly .196 batting average to the plate to start the night. Dozier has not done much on the back end of his triple slash to make up for the lousy average, getting on base at just a .268 clip and slugging a mere .362 over his 299 plate appearances. He has hit eight home runs but has just a .166 ISO while creating runs 29% worse than average, representing a major dip in production from the top end of this team’s lineup. He is cheap and will be unpopular, but he has not provided nearly the upside from 2019 when Dozier hit 26 home runs and posted a .243 ISO in 586 plate appearances. If that guy shows up for this game, he will make a desirable part of Royals stacks.
Jorge Soler is slashing just .186/.279/.333 with a .147 ISO and nine home runs in 332 plate appearances, while striking out 27.4% of the time. Following Dozier’s 28.4% strikeout rate and ahead of a few 30% rates in the projected lineup, Soler is part of a production black hole that hampers the team’s upside. Still, this is a power hitter who destroyed 48 baseballs for home runs while compiling a .304 ISO in 679 plate appearances in 2019 and had eight long balls with a .215 ISO in the limited 174 opportunities in 2020. For just $2,800 on DraftKings and $2,900 on FanDuel, Soler is a playable option.
Ryan O’Hearn has a .178 ISO on the season, the highest mark in the back end of the Royals lineup. He slots in at first base on FanDuel for $2,300 and outfield for $3,300 on DraftKings and will be unpopular on both sites. O’Hearn is slashing .217/.252/.395 but has hit seven home runs in his 135 plate appearances this season, which is at least enough to hang some expectations on for MLB DFS purposes.
Michael A. Taylor has a .117 ISO and creates runs 17% worse than average on the season. Nicky Lopez has a .065 ISO but creates runs just 3% worse than average. Taylor is slashing .244/.303/.360 with a 30.6% strikeout rate on the season. Lopez comes in at .274/.357/.339 with an excellent 13.5% strikeout rate. Taylor has eight home runs in his 310 plate appearances, while Lopez fills valuable middle infield positions for just $2,500 on FanDuel and slots in as a $3,500 shortstop on DraftKings. For the pricing and near-total lack of popularity, he has upside as a wrap-around option from the No. 9 spot in this batting order.
HR Call: Salvador Perez — Kansas City Royals
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.
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