Monday gets the MLB DFS week started with a relatively light nine-game main slate on both sites. The slate features a couple of premium pitchers and just a few solid options in the mid-range before cratering around the value options. While several will likely emerge from the low-cost tier with reasonably good MLB DFS point totals, this seems to be much more of a slate for high-end bats. At least half of the slate is comprised of targetable pitchers and Monday’s Vegas odds and run totals are inflated across the league. Spreading out ownership shares on stacks and concentrating on a few quality pitching options seems like a viable approach to tournament play today. With the help of Awesemo’s expert MLB DFS projections, let’s get into the top stacks and best plays for DraftKings and FanDuel.
MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
Be sure to catch the MLB DFS Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock, where we will review all the games, emphasizing finding the best stacks and top picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.
Home Run Ratings
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Atlanta Braves: Ozzie Albies — 12.27
Boston Red Sox: Hunter Renfroe — 8.53
Chicago Cubs: Patrick Wisdom — 15.87
Chicago White Sox: Yoan Moncada — 9.00
Cincinnati Reds: Aristides Aquino — 13.21
Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes — 10.17
Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop — 7.77
Kansas City Royals: Salvador Perez — 12.66
Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani — 11.41
Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich — 12.28
Minnesota Twins: Josh Donaldson — 10.47
New York Mets: Michael Conforto — 7.05
Philadelphia Phillies: Rhys Hoskins — 7.54
Pittsburgh Pirates: Ke’Bryan Hayes — 3.47
San Diego Padres: Tommy Pham — 8.26
Tampa Bay Rays: Austin Meadows — 16.50
Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo — 22.69
Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 10.02
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The Monday pitching slate has a strong top-end and a small but solid mid-range before everything falls apart. Brandon Woodruff is in Queens to take on the reinforced Mets lineup, while Joe Musgrove draws the Nationals who will be without Kyle Schwarber and his absurd power. The Rangers pitching staff will see a boost from facing the lowly Tigers, which is thrusting Kolby Allard up in the rankings on the Top Pitchers Tool, while my personal model prefers Max Fried taking on the Pirates or Dylan Cease against the aggressive Twins offense. Rich Hill and Mike Minor are both in somewhat difficult matchups that may cap their overall upside. Tylor Megill of the Mets is drawing some attention for his dirt-cheap price and plus strikeout matchup against Milwaukee, though his upside to a win may be limited given the opposing pitcher.
Woodruff has been sharp through the season’s first half. He has thrown 101 innings in his first 6 starts and he has a 31.1% strikeout rate with just a 6.3% walk rate. Woodruff is pitching to an electric 2.91 xFIP on the season with an outstanding 0.78 WHIP while inducing 12.2% swinging strikes and a 30.7% CSW. With just a 4.7% barreled ball rate and an 8.7-degree average launch angle, Woodruff has been good at limiting opposing home run upside, a trend that continues through his excellent 32.6% hard-hit rate and 86.8 mph average exit velocity against. Woodruff draws a Mets active roster that ranks 18th with a 24.3% strikeout rate and sits well below average at a .139 team ISO and 3.02% home run rate against right-handed pitching this season. New York is creating runs at a pace 9% behind the league average in the split, though they have recently added three excellent left-handed hitters back into their lineup with the returns of Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeill. Woodruff is not in the easiest spot of the night, but he ranks atop the board on both sites by projection and probability of success, though he is expensive on both DraftKings and FanDuel today.
Musgrove’s excellent season took a dent in his most recent start when the Reds dynamite offense laid five earned runs on him in just four innings with two home runs allowed and only three strikeouts. He has largely cruised through 2021 prior to that blip, though his strikeouts are a bit of a roller coaster through the season. Musgrove has thrown 89 innings in 15 starts, striking out 30% of hitters and inducing a high-quality 13.5% swinging strike rate and compiling a 31.9% CSW. He is yielding a 7.4% barreled ball rate and a 12.4-degree average launch angle with just a 36.6% hard-hit rate and 88.4 mph average exit velocity, all of which rank well above average. He is facing a Nationals team that sits 12th in baseball with a 23.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season and lands around the league average with a .154 ISO and a 3.42% home run rate. Washington’s 95 WRC+ is 5% below average and they will be without one of their big power threats, as Schwarber was placed on the IL after a leg injury ended his recent white hot home run outburst. Musgrove appears to be in an upside spot for MLB DFS production and he costs far less than Woodruff with similar ownership projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Allard is not a comfortable name to roster, but he is facing the talentless Tigers. Allard is pitching to a 23.2% strikeout rate and a 3.98 xFIP over his first 52 innings in six starts this year. He is walking just 5.2% of hitters and he has a solid 1.08 WHIP. He induces a reasonable 10% swinging strike rate but is limited with just a 25.8% CSW, showing his need to develop in the control and command part of the game. He is allowing a 7.3% barreled ball rate and a 16.5-degree average launch angle but does well with a 37.1% hard-hit rate and an 89.5 mph average exit velocity against. In a matchup against a Tigers team that is the second worst in baseball with a 27.6% strikeout rate against lefties is lending upside to Allard’s projection. Detroit’s 3.25% home run rate against lefties ranks sixth worst in the league, their .150 team ISO is seventh weakest in the split, and they create runs 7% worse than average by team WRC+. Allard is an unspectacular unsafe option who is not likely to make many of my personal entries tonight, but he ranks very well. The price is right at $8,000 on FanDuel and $7,900 on DraftKings, and he is pulling low ownership that would be easy to exceed by those who choose to do so.
Similarly discounted Tylor Megill of the Mets is in an upside spot as well. He costs just $6,200 on the FanDuel slate and $7,200 on DraftKings, where he will be similarly owned to Allard. Megill is making his third major league start, over his first 9.1 innings he has a 30% strikeout rate and a 10% walk rate, inducing 10.2% swinging strikes with a 26% CSW. He yielded just a 4.2% barreled ball rate with a 9.5-degree average launch angle, though opposing hitters have connected for a 45.8% hard-hit rate and a 92 average exit velocity, and Megill has allowed a home run in each of his first two starts. Megill was a relatively inconsequential prospect for the Mets prior to their pitching woes, though he has demonstrated a reasonably good ability to strike out hitters during his ascension through the system in short-sample stops at every level. Megill is facing a Brewers team that is fifth worst in baseball with a 25.6% strikeout rate against righties. Milwaukee has a collective ISO of .154 that ranks in the middle of the league, as does their 3.42% home run rate in the split. Milwaukee’s active roster creates runs at a rate 10% worse than league average by WRC+, lending a touch of possible safety to the rookie’s opportunity. For the price, he has upside given the plus strikeout matchup for Megill, but both his win potential and depth of start are major question marks, it seems unlikely that Megill will complete six innings and make a quality start bonus where that is relevant, and with Woodruff taking the mound for his opponents the win is in doubt. For the price, Megill does not absolutely need either bonus, but they would clearly elevate the potential floor given a clear path. The matchup has upside for the price, but the overall situation could be better.
Max Fried has been excellent with limiting opposing power. Fried has allowed just a 32% hard-hit rate and an 85.4 mph average launch angle to opposing hitters over his first 62.2 innings in 12 starts this season. He has allowed a 7.3% barreled ball rate but just a 6.4-degree average launch angle, which caps opposing home run upside. Fried is right around his career average with a 28.8% CSW but he has a solid 11.6% swinging strike rate, though he is at just an average 23.2% strikeout rate overall. He has a 3.99 xFIP and a 1.31 WHIP on the season, though some of that is based on a .310 batting average on balls in play against. Fried is holding opposing hitters to a .250 average and has a .242 expected batting average against, meaning there is a small degree of bad luck baked into the WHIP. In a matchup against the Pirates there is certainly reason to expect a low strikeout total. Fried does not strike out many hitters, but he does stand a strong chance of booking a win and a quality start without taking much damage. The Pirates active roster sits 19% worse than average at creating runs against left-handed pitching. Their 2.36% home run rate and .130 collective ISO are also both league-worst against southpaws this season. Assuming he gets through clean, Fried has a chance to put up a relevant MLB DFS total tonight.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”07/5/2021″ team=”braves”]
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs heavily right-handed power-packed offense will be taking on Matt Moore at Wrigley Field this evening. Moore has thrown 23.1 innings in four starts this season and he has a 17.6% strikeout rate and an 11.1% walk rate. He is pitching to a 5.42 xFIP and a 1.67 WHIP while inducing a mere 7.6% swinging strikes and compiling a 21.4% CSW in the tiny sample. Moore has allowed a 10.4% barreled ball rate and a 14.3-degree launch angle with a 39% hard-hit rate and 89.7 mph average exit velocity, slightly better than his recent season performances, but still well below average in everything but hard-hit rate, which sits in exactly the 50th percentile. The Cubs active roster ranks 10th in baseball with a 3.90% home run rate against lefties, while creating runs 3% better than average in the split. Chicago has a .165 team ISO but a 25.7% strikeout rate against southpaws this season. Getting to key Cubs bats in low-owned combinations will be a difficult exercise given their pricing on both DraftKings and FanDuel, though Anthony Rizzo will be underexposed on both sites in a lefty/lefty matchup that is not as limiting as it may seem. Patrick Wisdom has multi-position eligibility on DraftKings and comes in at just over 10% ownership, though he is at nearly 30% on the blue site where he costs a mere $2,600. The entire Cubs lineup will be popular on that site, given an average lineup cost of around $2,700. There is more room with players like Ian Happ drawing under 5% ownership at two positions and just $4,200 on DraftKings. The Cubs lead both the Top Stacks Tool and my personal power index above, they are well worth the effort of rostering.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers are rarely a go-to option in this space, given a general lack of talent in their lineup. In a matchup against the Tigers and Wily Peralta, the Rangers look like one of the best spots on tonight’s slate. Texas is drawing mid-range popularity, but there is concentration on specific players, and the team should provide a good shot at production for value pricing. Texas does not have the talent of the Reds, Red Sox or White Sox, three teams ranked well above them on the Top Stacks Tool that will be going off at better leverage marks, though the overall ownership on those stacks will be higher, as will the cost. Texas is facing a weak right-handed pitcher who is striking out just 13.8% of hitters over his limited 14 innings in three starts this season. Peralta has a 4.94 xFIP and is inducing just a 9.1% swinging strike rate while yielding an 11.4% barreled ball rate and a 45.5% hard-hit rate with a 92.3 mph average exit velocity in the small sample. There is significant upside for left-handed power, though as a whole the 3.51% home run rate that the Rangers active roster has compiled against right-handed pitching this season ranks just 17th in baseball. Their .149 team ISO is below average, and they strike out at a 25% rate in the split while creating runs 13% better than average, this is not a good baseball team, but for MLB DFS purposes, they have upside today.
Eli White has seen regular plate appearances as an outfielder for the Rangers over the last month, responding with a .206/.280/.338 triple slash, four home runs and three stolen bases in his 150 plate appearances for the season. White offers minor upside for his mid-range power and above average speed, though he does not get on base enough to justify a spot leading off and he has created runs 17% worse than average by WRC+. In 499 plate appearances in AAA in 2019, White hit 14 home runs and stole 14 bases, flashing the top-end of his potential. He costs just $2,200 on FanDuel and $2,600 on DraftKings, if he is leading off he is an easy addition to Rangers stacks.
Nate Lowe costs $4,700 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel. He has made 350 plate appearances and is slashing a respectable .262/.357/.417 with 12 home runs and four stolen bases in a bit of an unheralded season. Lowe has just a .156 ISO, other than the home runs he has not had much success for extra base hits, but he has created runs 17% better than average. Given the tools and the on-base potential in front of several sluggers in the Texas lineup Lowe seems easy to roster.
Adolis Garcia wowed early in the season and was a must-roster for more than a few contests. He is slashing .270/.306/.522 with 20 home runs and eight stolen bases in his 307 plate appearances. Garcia has an impressive .253 ISO and is creating runs 23% better than average, though he has a 30.9% strikeout rate. He is not a three-true-outcomes player given the low on-base percentage, but he costs just $3,200 on FanDuel and $4,500 on DraftKings and has upside.
The big name in the Rangers lineup on any given slate is Joey Gallo. Gallo has a 31.3% strikeout rate but gets on base at a .389 clip given his massive 19.5% walk rate. Gallo is slashing .233/.389/.485 on the season with a .252 ISO while creating runs 42% better than average. He has hit 20 home runs and has sneaky speed, adding six stolen bases to his total. Gallo is an obvious play that does not need a push here to gain ownership. He will be the most popular Rangers bat, but a player with this skillset and current production for less than $5,000 on DraftKings is a bargain.
Check Out Our New MLB DFS & Betting Tools The Awesemo MLB DFS and betting experts have worked hard to bring you brand new tools that are assured to help you improve your process — whether it's for DraftKings and FanDuel or in the sports betting markets. The MLB Player Props Tool will give you expert picks for what props are most likely to win in the strikeouts and home run prop markets, while the MLB Power Rankings will give you a more advance at team props and run lines. Be sure to get all the expert advice you can get with our MLB DFS Gameplan Archive of videos.Jonah Heim hits from both sides of the plate and slots in at the minimum on FanDuel and just $2,500 as a catcher on DraftKings. Heim has made 125 plate appearances and is slashing .219/.274/.377 with a .158 ISO and three home runs with a stolen base. He is creating runs just 22% worse than average so far, though he has mid-range contact and has demonstrated a reasonable on-base tool through the minors. Heim is an affordable piece of the puzzle for positioning and salary needs as Rangers stacks come together.
Nick Solak is in the sixth spot in the projected lineup. Solak is slashing .231/.301/.366 with just a .135 ISO while creating runs 14% worse than average over 336 plate appearances this season. He has managed to hit nine home runs and steal three bases in the sample, and he is well-regarded for his mid-range power and speed upside. In 565 AA plate appearances in the Tampa Bay system in 2018, Solak hit 19 home runs and stole 21 bases, and he hit 27 AAA home runs across 477 opportunities for the Rays and Rangers combined in 2019. Solak has upside at essentially no ownership and an affordable price across the industry. His power potential is sneakily one of the better options at his position today.
David Dahl hit 15 home runs and stole four bases in 2019, slashing .302/.353/.524 with a .222 ISO and creating runs 10% better than average. He hit 16 home runs and stole five bases with a .261 ISO in just 271 major league appearances with the Rockies in 2018 but slashed .273/.325/.534. The year-over-year improvement with contact and on-base skills is not as significant as it may seem, as Dahl benefitted from a .386 batting average on balls in play in 2019. He struck out at a 26.6% clip that season, compared to a 25.1% rate in 2018, while his walks dropped from 7% in 2018 to 6.8% in 2019. For his talent level and at no ownership, Dahl could easily provide surprise left-handed upside in this lineup at $2,400 on FanDuel where he draws under 2% ownership. On DraftKings, for just $2,300, Dahl will be closer to 10% ownership, but he is still worthwhile.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”07/5/2021″ team=”rangers”]
Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been an off the radar option for stolen bases this season. He has 15 steals on the season despite just a .302 on-base percentage. He is slashing .266/.302/.373 with only a .107 ISO and six home runs, and he is 15% worse than average by WRC+, but with third base and shortstop eligibility for only $2,600 on FanDuel, he has upside. For $4,000 on DraftKings, he will be ignored by the public, but the price is more challenging.
Brock Holt rounds out the projected lineup. He is slashing .222/.314/.311 with a .089 ISO while creating runs 21% worse than average over 153 plate appearances this season. He is primarily lineup filler on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.
HR Call: Joey Gallo — Texas Rangers
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.
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