Today delivers a full day of baseball but split slates for MLB DFS. With action kicking off early for the full afternoon slate, this article focuses on the evening main slate this Saturday. The seven-game slate has several interesting spots, including our Coors Field game of the day, as well as high-end matchups between the Reds and Padres, White Sox and Astros, and, with some weather luck, the Cardinals and Braves. There are premium bats and arms available in several spots in those games and many contests that appear to be “roster all sides” situations. This is a very interesting slate to dig into. There are excellent stacking opportunities, while pitching will be a challenging decision down the line for MLB DFS lineups today.
***Get a SNEAK PEEK with our free premium data, tools and content of the day, the Awesemo Premium MLB DFS Top Pitchers.***
MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.
Home Run Ratings
Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free baseball picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Eduardo Escobar — 10.22
Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman — 11.84
Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu — 5.04
Cincinnati Reds: Tyler Naquin — 8.01
Colorado Rockies: C.J. Cron — 9.04
Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera — 13.35
Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez — 9.51
Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 12.46
Los Angeles Dodgers: Will Smith — 13.20
Milwaukee Brewers: Avisail Garcia — 4.42
San Diego Padres: Tommy Pham — 9.12
Seattle Mariners: Dylan Moore — 4.91
St. Louis Cardinals: Nolan Arenado — 12.74
Tampa Bay Rays: Austin Meadows — 28.00
Latest MLB DFS Content
- MLB DFS Contrarian Stacks Today: Against the Grain Aaron Nola (April 26)
- MLB DFS: Stokastic’s Tom Kennedy With TWO DraftKings MLB Wins in One Night | How the Sims Helped Him Out
- DraftKings Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From MLB DFS Contest Sims | Randy Arozarena (April 26 Main Slate)
- MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: SP1 Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Mariners Bats (April 25)
- MLB DFS Punt Plays For DraftKings and FanDuel (April 25)
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The main slate presents some challenging pitching decisions. The clear-cut top option is Walker Buehler in his matchup against the Diamondbacks, while Lance Lynn offers excellence and depth of start, but not necessarily safety in a challenging contest against the Astros. Adam Wainwright and Drew Smyly are likely facing a rainout or, at best, a game with delays, which is more concerning when rostering pitchers than hitters. There seem to be strong odds of a postponement in Atlanta, and neither pitcher is in consideration unless the weather clears. The remaining options on the slate include rolling the dice on pitching at Coors Field one more time or looking to a starter like Seattle’s Logan Gilbert, who is a high-end prospect with strikeout stuff in a plus strikeout spot, but also pushing the night’s highest home run totals to his opposition in my model. Several other pitchers are functioning as openers, and limited options following that, though Patrick Sandoval is on the board for his matchup against the lowly Tigers, despite how the Tigers may stack up for power in the Index above.
Buehler is the “safe” pick on tonight’s slate. The Dodgers’ righty has been solid through the first third of the season. He has a 3.81 xFIP and a 0.94 WHIP with a 23.8% strikeout rate, walking just 5.3% of hitters and inducing an 11.6% swinging-strike rate. Buehler is priced like an apex ace, despite the strikeout rate that comes in well below some peak MLB DFS options. He is simply more talented than most of the other options on this slate and in a better spot than the remaining pitchers. Buehler faces a Diamondbacks team that sits 16th in baseball with a 24.0% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The team has just a .133 ISO and a 2.35% home run rate in the split, however, and they create runs 17.0% worse than average, all bad marks. There is safety and upside for Buehler. He is worth the price and any accompanying ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.
Lynn draws a far more challenging opponent in the Astros. Houston is the best team in baseball against both hands when it comes to avoiding strikeouts. The Astros active roster has just a 19.3% strikeout rate this season against righties, best in baseball by more than two full percentage points. The team has a 4.04% home run rate in the split and a .183 ISO, and they create runs 22.0% better than average against righties this season, best in baseball. Lynn provides reliable depth in his starts. He has completed 71.2 innings in his 12 starts this season, striking out 28.1% of hitters along the way. The righty has a 3.89 xFIP and a 0.93 WHIP on the season, inducing 12.5% swinging strikes. He projects as one of the best options on the slate despite the difficult situation.
Sandoval is a lefty with a 22.1% strikeout rate in his 33.1 innings over five starts this season. The southpaw has a 3.97 xFIP with a 1.29 WHIP and an excellent 17.1% swinging strike rate with a 31.5% CSW% on the season. There is major strikeout upside in facing the Tigers, the team is second-worst in baseball with a 28.5% strikeout rate against lefties this season, and they have just a 2.81% home run rate and a .139 ISO in the split. The Tigers are profiling well for power in the matchup in my home run model, but there are positive signs in Sandoval’s contact metrics a well. The lefty sits in the 76th percentile in average exit velocity against and the 55th percentile in chase rate, though he slips to the 48th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 50th percentile in expected slugging percentage. There is significant strikeout upside on the board for Sandoval, which is the most likely outcome in this spot, but those rostering significant shares of the pitcher may do well to grab a hedge stack or two with some terrible Tigers bats.
Seattle’s Logan Gilbert is a right-handed rookie who has struck out 24.2% of hitters in his brief 28.1 inning career so far. The highly regarded prospect has been up and down, posting a 4.63 xFIP and a 1.13 WHIP while inducing a solid 12.2% swinging strikes at the Major League level. Gilbert has effective Major League stuff but needs seasoning overall. The upside in this spot comes from the opposing Rays’ heavy strikeout rate. The projected Rays lineup has an average strikeout rate of 30.0%, while the team sits second-worst in baseball with a 28.2% rate against righties across the active roster for the season. The Rays have excellent power and run creation marks in the split, despite the strikeout-heavy approach, so Gilbert is a major dice roll. Tampa Bay’s active roster creates runs 12.0% better than average against righties while hitting home runs at a 4.14% home run rate. At $6,900 on DraftKings, the pitcher is well worth the gamble, though rostering some power upside with Rays in other lineups is advisable. Gilbert costs $8,200 on the FanDuel slate. He is a play and drawing less popularity there. He has upside, but the price differential is not quite as significant as we’d like it to be or as it is across town.
Tampa Bay Rays
In direct defiance of the dice roll of a pitcher called out in the last segment above, the Rays are staring at a juicy power matchup on the other side of that game. While Gilbert has pitched well for a rookie, the righty has been giving up extremely targetable contact marks. Gilbert languishes in the fourth percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, the fourth percentile in average exit velocity against, the 14th percentile in expected slugging percentage against, and the 24th percentile in barrel rate allowed. This could prove problematic, given how the Rays hit righties for power.
Tampa’s projected lineup starts with lefty power in the form of Brandon Lowe, who is drawing attention at $4,800 on DraftKings and has a very high public ownership for a mere $2,900 on the blue site. Lowe slots in as both a second baseman and outfielder on FanDuel, adding to the overall appeal, while he is limited to the right side of the keystone on DraftKings. Lowe has mashed 12 home runs in his 275 plate appearances so far in 2021 but carries just a .197/.298/.381 slash and is creating runs eight percent worse than average for the season so far. Lowe has a very high mark in my home run model, but we will be with a large chunk of the field rostering him, even more so in Rays stacks. He should not be skipped, but the popularity is something to remember in constructing lineups.
Ji-man Choi has just 71 plate appearances so far this year, hitting two home runs and slashing .298/437/.474 with a .175 ISO in the small sample. The first baseman has created runs 62.0% better than average in the limited opportunity and costs just $2,700 on the FanDuel slate and $4,200 on DraftKings. He does not have significant ownership on either site and stands as a strong option to display power in this matchup.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”06/19/2021″ team=”rays”]
Righty Randy Arozarena has hit 10 home runs in 290 plate appearances this season, carrying over his standout playoff performance from last season into a solid first third in 2021. The slugging outfielder is slashing .266/.341/.436 so far this season with a .170 ISO, creating runs 20.0% better than average. Arozarena has clear power upside against both hands, though he has a .254 ISO against lefties and a .181 mark against same-handed pitching in his brief career. The righty remains strong, creating runs against right-handed pitching, coming in with a 123 WRC+ in the split. Arozarena makes a great play in the middle of Rays stacks with limited popularity, a fair price, and clear upside.
Lefty slugger Austin Meadows got out to a hot start this season. He has 15 home runs in 287 plate appearances and has created runs 29.0% better than average, posting a .262 ISO along the way. Meadows is slashing just .234/.331/.496, but he makes excellent contact regularly, barreling the ball in the 74th percentile in baseball, and he draws walks at an 11.8% rate for the season, helping offset some of his 25.4% strikeout rate. Meadows is underpriced at $3,800 on FanDuel and should be drawing more ownership than currently projected. On the DraftKings slate, he costs $5,100 but is even less popular and makes for a strong pay-up to be a contrarian option.
Joey Wendle should see some action against a righty. The lefty bat costs just $3,100 and slots in at short and third on FanDuel but is just a third baseman for $4,100 on the DraftKings slate. He entirely lacks popularity on both sites, but there is some appeal in a hitter slashing .284/.345/.485 for the season with seven home runs and five stolen bases. That is quality MLB DFS production. Wendle has a solid .201 ISO for the year and is creating runs 31.0% better than average. He has hit righties far better than lefties for his career, though not to this level. Wendle has a .155 ISO across his career against righties.
Taylor Walls is an inexpensive option in the infield, drawing minimal ownership for just $2,400 on DraftKings and $2,500 on FanDuel. Walls has made 87 plate appearances this season, producing a .233/.356/.356 slash with a .123 ISO, creating runs nine percent better than average in the small sample. Walls is more of a mix-in option to offset cost and ownership, he doesn’t have a massive home run upside in the slate, but there is appeal in the unowned bat if he is hitting in this spot in the middle of the lineup.
Veteran outfielder Kevin Kiermaier hits from the left side of the plate and provides limited upside from late in the lineup. Kiermaier has made 160 plate appearances this season and has a .235/.288/.315 slash with just a .081 ISO and one home run. He has been a better hitter than that over time, but there has not been much this season. Kiermaier has created runs 28.0% worse than average on the season so far. He gains appeal for the platoon splits and the $2,200 salary on FanDuel and $2,100 on DraftKings.
Mike Zunino is a major home run threat any time he is in the lineup. Zunino has one of the league’s ideal home run swings, focused on barrel and launch angle. The catcher is a major swing and miss threat as well, he is currently striking out at a 40.1% clip on the season, but he has hit 13 home runs and has a monster .301 ISO while creating runs 15.0% better than average. Zunino is a great catcher play at under 5.0% ownership on DraftKings and is in play for the power upside on FanDuel, where he costs just $2,600.
Post-hype prospect Brett Phillips brings a final lefty bat to the bottom of the lineup and makes for an interesting wraparound play with his speed upside. The outfielder has stolen nine bases on the season in just 153 plate appearances, though he is slashing just .211/.325/.328 for the year with a .117 ISO. Phillips has hit three home runs and long profiled as a player with midrange power upside plus speed. The 15-25 upside is on full display, though it is unlikely Phillips will actually reach those marks for the season. On any given slate, at these prices and the lack of popularity, there is upside.
HR Call: Austin Meadows — Tampa Bay Rays
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
[MLBPAGE]
