Tuesday was yet another disappointing Coors Field effort from the Padres. Despite a lofty 7.1 implied run total, they could only summon four total runs (only two after the first inning), making for a massive failed-chalk spot. That speaks to the variance of baseball, as leveraging lineups and avoiding overlap tends to work out more than it doesn’t. Hopefully the Padres’ back-to-back busts didn’t burn too badly, but if so, there are plenty of opportunities to get it back on this morning’s six-game and evening’s eight-game slates on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s find the right DFS MLB strategy and picks that can help take us to the top.
MLB DFS Slate Starter: Picks & Strategy | June 16
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The Afternoon Slate
One of the best parts about living on the West Coast is constantly waking up to live sports on television. Whether it’s European soccer, weekend football or early baseball, there is almost always something to sweat with coffee in the morning. Wednesday has a solid six-game MLB DFS slate right out of the gate, and it’s one of the better small slates in some time. There are top-tier pitching options in Freddy Peralta and Lucas Giolito, a super-chalk hitting spot in Coors Field and a number of solid contrarian spots with temps of at least 70 degrees across the board.
Hitting on the right stacks and bats is always where most slates are won and lost, but hitting on the right SP2 will also be of utmost importance. And that is where it gets a bit hairy, as there is no one below Peralta and Giolito over on DraftKings to be super enthusiastic about at first glance:
Tyler Mahle makes for a tough get at $9,400, Blake Snell is pitching in 100-degree weather in Coors, and everyone else on the board is simply not that good — except maybe Brady Singer at $6,300, who will most likely become the popular pairing option with one of the aces up top. Singer has thrown at least six strikeouts in three consecutive starts and now draws a soft Tigers team that gets punched out at a 27.9% clip, the highest mark in all of baseball. It is supposed to be 90-plus degrees at first pitch in Kansas City, but the matchup more than makes up for the weather concerns; just make sure to have some Detroit on the other side if making multiple lineups.
As far as stacks go, not playing the Padres or Rockies makes your lineup different by default. The Padres opened with another seven-run implied total, making it by far the standout spot on the board for the third straight day. That should make the Royals a great lower-owned (but still owned) option for this afternoon, as they are in a great hitting environment themselves against Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal, who gives up tons of hard contact and is due for some negative regression. Plus, there is enough savings in the back half of that lineup to help pair a top pitcher or two together.
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The Main Slate
After a lack of aces on Monday and Tuesday’s main slates, Wednesday is overloaded at the top:
Jacob deGrom is obviously a phenomenal pitching option. Why he’s not $13,000-plus yet is beyond comprehension, but that’s a different discussion. Even at $12,200 on FanDuel, he’s not cost-prohibitive enough to justify any sort of a fade, so fire him up at will against a Cubs team seventh in strikeout rate on the season at 25.6%.
Gerrit Cole tends to be the popular pivot off deGrom due to his strikeout upside, but that move looks far less appealing versus a Blue Jays team that simply doesn’t strikeout (27th in strikeout rate at 22.3%). Clayton Kershaw is in a solid spot versus the Phillies, but it’s hard to see him gaining enough ground on deGrom to be all that viable at $10,000. And there is a nice price on Zack Wheeler to account for the Dodgers matchup, although it’s not good enough to prioritize him either. Basically, play deGrom up top and move on with the rest of your day.
As far as SP2 and stacks go, make sure you default to Awesemo’s Top Pitchers and Top Stacks tools, the best tools to help you leverage your lineups correctly against the field. The Astros and Braves are the two offenses that stick out at first glance, but finding ways to jam in two elite arms with a cheaper stack may be the direction to go instead, so long as that does not mean inheriting a bunch of ownership in the process.
Final Thoughts for MLB DFS Lineups
- It is rare that this article will feature anything to do with batter vs. pitcher, but since he’s the poster child of the Live Before Lock of the afternoon slate, here you go: Nick Castellanos 5-for-7 versus Peralta in his career with four doubles. Castellanos already makes for a decent one-off against any pitcher, so if this encourages that, so be it.
- The Twins pitching staff is the new Coors Field. Don’t forget to stack up whomever they’re playing under any/all circumstances (Mariners again tonight).
- Just play Nelson Cruz.
Check out today’s MLB Live Before Lock with Spags and Greg Ehrenberg!
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