The MLB Slate Starter: MLB DFS Strategy for DraftKings + FanDuel | Monday, 6/21

After a weekend of being torched by Adam Duvall double-dongs and Kyle Schwarber triple-dongs, it will be nice to get them both out of the player pool on tonight’s smaller six-game slate. Hopefully, you were all on the right side of their slate-breaking performances, and if not, that’s why they call it “daily” fantasy. Let’s get to work finding a few MLB DFS picks and strategies based on our expert MLB DFS projections that can take us to the top on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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MLB DFS Slate Starter: Picks & Strategy | June 21

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Large-Field Strategy

With NBA off for the night, prize pools on DraftKings and FanDuel are a little more robust than normal. DraftKings has a $300,000 contest that’s $5, $100,000 to first, while FanDuel has upped its normal $4.44 offering to $200,000 with $40,000 to the winner. However, you have to beat out a lot more lineups than normal to take one of these down, with 55,000-plus entries in the mix on FanDuel and a gigantic total of 71,000-plus entries to surpass on DraftKings.

That means it’s time to get different — or at the very least, it’s time to consider how to get different. Here are a few wild ideas that deviate from the normal five-man MLB DFS stacks today that could make lineups unique enough to win:

1. Mix In 4-4 and 3-3-2 Stacks on DraftKings — Most stackers are going to run the typical 5-3, 5-2-1 and 5-1-1-1 combinations on every DraftKings slate from now until the end of time, with the occasional 4-3-1 thrown into the mix for good measure. Of course, five-mans are so popular because they correlate the bulk of players together, helping to capture the most fantasy upside when that team goes nuts. But if everyone is going to be running the same sets of five-mans, considering zagging to a few 4-4 or 3-3-2 combinations. That means sacrificing a bit of upside, but it also avoids a lot of overlap in the process.
2. Don’t Stack — It is frustrating how often lineups with little to no stacking take down massive MLB DFS tournaments, but it certainly happens. Playing the highest-projected lineup is definitely the way to go about playing cash games, but it’s not a profitable strategy for tournaments compared to stacking. Still, if there is a combination of expensive pitching that needs certain punts with power to make it work, not stacking isn’t completely insane.
3. Leave Tons of Salary on the Table — The most expensive players in baseball (and every other DFS sport) are usually the most expensive players for a reason: They tend to score the most fantasy points. But since baseball has such high variance when it comes to batting, it’s a common occurrence for elite hitters to score zero fantasy points. That makes going to cheaper options over expensive options at huge ownership decreases a solid way to go, allowing gamers to leave multiple thousands in salary on the table without giving up as much upside as one would think.
4. Fire Up a One-Off Batter Versus Your Pitcher — It might be a stretch to consider this strategy on a six-gamer, but on two- and three-game slates it’s common place to target one or two batters that can hit one-off home runs versus rostered pitchers. For example, the two highest-priced arms on this slate are Yu Darvish and Tyler Mahle. Both have shown elite strikeout stuff this season and are more than capable of mowing down their opposition tonight, but considering Darvish’s matchup versus the Dodgers and Mahle’s versus the Twins, there’s a lot of power potential they’re facing as well. So if a $2,900 Max Kepler opens up a strong lineup combination with Mahle in it, feel free to take a shot on the negatively correlated solo home run.

• MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Yankees Batting Practice? (April 26)
• MLB DFS Contrarian Stacks Today: Against the Grain Aaron Nola (April 26)
• MLB DFS Punt Plays For DraftKings and FanDuel (April 26)
• MLB DFS: Stokastic’s Tom Kennedy With TWO DraftKings MLB Wins in One Night | How the Sims Helped Him Out
• DraftKings Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From MLB DFS Contest Sims | Randy Arozarena (April 26 Main Slate)
• Stokastic DFS on Youtube

Yelling at Yelich to Launch It

It would be a little overdramatic to say Christian Yelich has experienced a fall from grace this season. In fact, a lot of his underlying Statcast numbers looks decent:

He is still smoking the ball with a 54.3% hard-hit rate and walking at an elite 21.3% clip, which is great for a player with tons of speed that can wreak havoc on the base paths. However, with just a .258 batting average and only three homers in 160 plate attempts in 2021, it’s safe to say Yelich has underperformed the expectations dramatically.

And if there is any one thing that points to what’s wrong with him, it has to be launch angle. In an era where lofting the ball in the air 15 to 20 degrees is the priority, Yelich has regressed to a paltry 1.8 degrees, which is borderline asinine. However, he is no stranger to lower launch angle, as the right column clearly demonstrates:

Even during his 2018 MVP season, he only reached a 5-degree launch angle average, proving hitters can still be effective without tons of loft. Still, on nights like tonight where Yelich is bound to garner increased ownership facing a righty who gives up a ton of hard contact in Merrill Kelly, he makes an easier fade than one would think purely because his chances of homering compared to the players in the $5,000 range on DraftKings and above $3,500 on FanDuel is exponentially lower right now. So include Yelich in stacks but as a one-off; there are simply better options available right now.

Final Thoughts for MLB DFS Lineups

• Just play Jesse Winker.

Check out today’s MLB Strategy Show, with expert MLB DFS tips, strategy, picks and predictions for DraftKings and FanDuel. We’re live at 11 a.m. ET.

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