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The MLB Slate Starter: MLB DFS Strategy for DraftKings + FanDuel | Monday, August 2

Eric Lindquist

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MLB DFS Picks, top stacks and pitchers for Yahoo, DraftKings & FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups, including the Yankees | Tuesday, 10/5

The MLB DFS season is coming down the homestretch, which means it is time to make the month of August count before tournaments are trimmed to account for massive NFL slates. For baseball-only fantasy players that have been considering an Awesemo+ MLB Monthly Pass, this is the month to pull the trigger before football takes over. But it is time to break down a few major talking points and MLB DFS picks for tonight’s seven-game slate.

MLB DFS Slate Starter: Fantasy Baseball Picks | August 2

Happy “Target the Marlins Everyday” Day

When the NBA season winds down, it becomes very apparent who wants to win and who does not based on who is in the lineup and for how long. The same is true in the NFL, as there is so much incentive for being the worst as opposed to just bad. Depending on the year, getting the No. 1 draft pick in either of those sports can be franchise-altering since a single player at a position like point guard or quarterback can make a world of difference.

In MLB, however, it is impossible to cover all of the warts of a bad team with a single asset. Starting pitchers only pitch once every five days at best, hitters only make up one-ninth of their lineup, and there is far too much real estate to cover on the field for only one player to do it all defensively. In other words, one individual is never going to single-handedly fix a baseball franchise. Take the Cubs, for instance: No matter how much production the bats of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez put forth this season, they still could not help their ball club to a .500 record. They even had the top-performing closer in the game in Craig Kimbrel and his absurd 0.47 ERA and 0.67 WHIP over 38.2 innings in 2021. That further goes to show that in baseball wins and losses have a lot to do with the whole team and little to do with any one individual.

This is relevant to tonight’s MLB DFS slate because the Marlins are on it. After a surprise postseason berth in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, the Marlins were back to their losing ways in 2021 due to a lineup that could not produce. Miami’s offense only managed to put up a .138 ISO (second worst in MLB), a mere 87 wRC+ (fifth worst) and struck out at a 25.9% clip (fourth worst) on their way to a current record of 44-61. And while there are a number of quality arms in Miami now, there are legitimately zero positives about this Marlins lineup in the aftermath of last week’s trades of Starling Marte and Adam Duvall as well as the season-ending surgery to the team’s best hitter in Garrett Cooper.

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Look at the projected lineup using Awesemo’s Lineup Builder tool:

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One could argue there are Triple-A lineups more capable of putting up production than this one, and the weekend sweep at the hands of the Yankees might further bolster that case. In their three-game set over the weekend the Marlins mustered just four runs and 16 hits, which might become the norm going forward as the Marlins start evaluating talent. As stated earlier, there is not nearly as much incentive to tank in MLB, and players fighting for roster spots are going up to the plate with every intention to get hits. But there is no denying that getting hits is going to be a major problem for the entire team the rest of the way.

That may be especially so tonight against emerging ace Tylor Megill. Megill was only the 10th-ranked prospect in the Mets organization according to FanGraphs, but the results have been that of a clear-cut No. 1 with his 2.04 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. And his advanced stats have somehow been even more exceptional:

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The .178 xBA and .268 xSLG leap off the page, and the 27.1% strikeout rate to top it all off makes him a viable play in nearly any matchup, let alone against the Marlins. At $9,600 on DraftKings and just $8,500 on FanDuel his price is not nearly prohibitive enough. He is the clear-cut No. 1 play at pitcher on this slate, and it is not even close. Make sure to check with the Awesemo Top Pitchers tool to find lower-owned SP2’s to pair him with, but regardless of the ownership, it would be foolish not to jam a bunch of Megill against the Marlins tonight.


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Final Thoughts for MLB DFS Lineups

  • Andrew Heaney makes his Yankees debut tonight versus an Orioles lineup that sports some decent righty power at the top in Trey Mancini and Ryan Mountcastle. This sets up as a “play both sides” scenario if there ever was one, especially since the Awesemo Top Stacks tool will surely show some positive leverage for the Orioles in this spot.
  • In the same way targeting the Marlins will become the new norm, rostering the ridiculous top half of the Yankees lineup is about to become a daily thing too. With the acquisitions of lefties Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo, everyone is going to be chomping at the bit to stack up this team up tonight, especially against Jorge Lopez. Beware of the ownership for tournaments, as the stack should be extremely highly owned. Perhaps playing just two or three hitters in hopes they do all the damage up top is a solid way to get somewhat different with this team.
  • Just play Giancarlo Stanton.

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