Tuesday was lining up to be a fantastic slate until the Cleveland Indians cancelled their game on account of phantom rain. MLB DFS can be extremely unfair at times, whether that’s a chalk pitcher getting shelled in the otherwise perfect lineup or a way under-owned DFS MLB stacks get shutout. But there’s something so tilting about postponements, especially when the delay is announced two minutes before the game locks and there’s nothing anyone can do about it.
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And On the Seventh Day, Ohtani Pitches
Not to make this purely an appreciation post, but how insane is Shohei Ohtani? He now leads the league in home runs (27) after bombing three long balls in the Bronx this week and now will take his turn on the mound against the righty-heavy Yankees lineup. Armed with a 100 mph fastball and a cutter that is amongst the best pitches in baseball, tonight could further bolster Ohtani’s MVP candidacy with a primetime pitching performance.
And judging by his lefty/righty splits this season, this could be an elite spot for Ohtani to go nuts:
It is hard to know exactly where Ohtani’s ownership will fall on this slate with a number of other solid pitching options such as Aaron Nola and Joe Musgrove. But with a projected lineup that includes only one left-handed hitter (Brett Gardner, who for all intents and purposes is terrible now), it’s hard to imagine this doesn’t set up as an elite spot considering Ohtani’s outrageous 42.6% strikeout percentage against righties this season.
The control can be concerning at times (11.9% walk rate against righties), but his ability to generate whiffs — plus the fact he has given up all of one homer to righties this season — makes Ohtani an easy name to click on tonight. Add in that he threw a hefty 105 pitches in his last start, his highest number of the season by 12, there’s some upside for him to work longer into games than ever before.
Try Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers ToolOur Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool gives you the probabilities that each pitcher will be one of the highest-scoring options of the night. On DraftKings where you get two pitchers, we give the odds of a pitcher being one of the Top 2. The top pitcher percentage is defined as overall points and the value by top points per dollar, according to their respective salaries.
Favorite Stack Not Named Houston or Toronto
With the Tigers – Indians game off the board, there are nine games and 18 teams to pluck stacks from tonight. And for seemingly the 100th straight day, the Blue Jays and Astros will be soaking up a crazy amount of ownership, and it’s hard to argue against it. The Blue Jays have a potent lineup in a small ballpark versus Justus Sheffield, while the Astros have a date with one of MLB DFS’s favorite pitchers to target against in Matt Harvey. It would be hard to blame anyone who wanted to run a million iterations of these two lineups. It is not the ideal way to play a highly variant sport like baseball, but those are undoubtedly the best two spots on the board tonight.
However, if all the ownership flocks their direction, this could be the second straight night to capitalize on lower-than-normal Padres ownership. The rain delay announced well before first pitch scared a lot of players off this spot, allowing for tournament players to flock to what would have otherwise been a very chalky stack yesterday. Perhaps it will be more owned than anticipated, but if there’s any ownership discount off the Astros/Blue Jays mega-chalk, this is the spot to land.
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For starters, it’s hard to hammer home how much of a park upgrade Great American Ball Park is compared to Petco Park. Using BaseballSavant.mlb.com, here are the past three seasons of data at each stadium (note: 100 is considered league average for each of these metrics):
Petco has played as the seventh-worst park factor for hitters over the past three years, compared to Great American, which is the third best in baseball. Grouping by handedness, it’s actually the second best behind only Coors Field. And with two righties that smoke the ball in Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, that could spell disaster for Reds starter Vladimir Gutierrez. Gutierrez does a solid job at limiting hard contact (32.7% hard-hit rate this season), but his .450 xSLG and inability to generate swings and misses (23.4% whiff rate) could spell disaster against this lineup.
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Final Thoughts for MLB DFS Lineups
- Just play Tommy Pham.
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