MLB DFS Picks: Stack Slants for DraftKings + FanDuel | Cardinals

Today’s early MLB DFS start has us scrambling a bit for lineups and getting everything just right with our many options on the board. As I mentioned in last night’s Quick Hits, there look to be a few teams in very strong spots that might be a bit under-appreciated on today’s loaded slate. With that in mind, let’s dive right in since lock is almost on us already. Know that I’m not doubling you up on the Yankees since we used them as the one featured team yesterday — and they delivered with a 12 run drubbing of Cleveland — but they look in just as strong a spot in terms of location on the stacks tool and their projected ownership.

MLB DFS Stack Slants | DraftKings + FanDuel | Sept. 30

St. Louis Cardinals – 2-3-4-6-7 – Edman – Goldschmidt – Miller – DeJong – Carpenter

The Cardinals are a team I was eyeing last night for this space, and they landed perfectly in the top stacks tool. The Cardinals rank fifth and are drawing less ownership than their probability of success overall. They match up against Padres right-handed starter Chris Paddack, who had a bit of an uneven season in 2020. Paddack threw 59 innings and landed with a 3.77 xFIP to a 4.73 ERA, suggesting he was pitching a bit better than it appears on the surface. Overall, however, Paddack’s numbers were down from the success he saw as a rookie. Of particular concern is his reduced strikeout rate. While he also yielded a number of home runs, that is likely a bit noisy for the season, allowing 14 in his 59 innings.

The Cardinals lineup had a similarly up-and-down season as well as a start-and-stop season with their COVID delays. The team ended 2020 ranked 29th in the league with a .131 ISO against right-handed pitching, with a team WRC+ 8% below average. The lack of pop is concerning but normalizes somewhat when we reset the sample to the start of 2019. Overall there should be enough quality for a sneaky MLB DFS play.

The Cardinals start the lineup with lefty second baseman Kolten Wong. In his 208 plate appearances in 2020, Wong put up a .265/.350/.326 slash with just one home run and five stolen bases. His power was absent with a .061 ISO, and he generated runs at a pace 8% below average. Since the start of last season, Wong has a WRC+ 6% above average in the split. He’s a workable option but not one of my favorites in the league.

Tommy Edman is a switch-hitter who slots in at third base or the outfield on DraftKings and costs just $4,100 on DraftKings and $2,700 on FanDuel. The combination of power and speed offered by Edman makes him ideal for MLB DFS purposes. In 2019, Edman hit 11 home runs and stole 15 bases in just 349 plate appearances.

Paul Goldschmidt looks like a solid bet for some power today, he’s pulling up a great mark in my home run model and hits third in this lineup in a strong RBI spot. The first baseman hits from the right side of the plate and has a .184 ISO and a WRC+ 16% above average in the split since the start of 2019.

Brad Miller had a solid season, coming in at .232/.357/.451 with seven home runs in his 171 plate appearances. Miller hits from the left side of the plate and provides a decent amount of power for his price at just $4,600 on DraftKings and only $2,700 on FanDuel, where he plays first base. In just 170 plate appearances in 2019, Miller hit 13 home runs, he has the upside for power in this matchup.

Yadier Molina and Paul DeJong both hit from the right side of the plate, though the shortstop DeJong does it better than the catcher these days. DeJong spent a fair chunk of the season on the injured list and managed just a .250/.322/.349 slash with a .099 ISO this year. Last year in his 664 plate appearances, DeJong hit 30 home runs, he’s a solid sneaky option at the position tonight. Molina is in play for price and his spot in the batting order. He’s still capable though not strong in the hitting department. The backstop put up four home runs and a WRC+ 18% below average.

Another past-his-prime hitter in this lineup is Matt Carpenter, who hits from the left side of the plate. The slugging third baseman hit juts .186/.325/.314 for the season with just four home runs. Since the start of 2019 against right-handed pitching, Carpenter has a .166 ISO with a WRC+ 6% below average.

Dexter Fowler and Dylan Carlson provide some additional outfield options from the end of the lineup for very little cost. At just $2,700 and $2,400, Fowler’s veteran bat could be an interesting mix-and-match option. The switch-hitter put up 19 home runs in 574 plate appearances in 2019. Carlson also hits from both sides of the plate and has the potential for power and speed, though he had just a .200/.252/.364 slash with three home runs this season.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Dealer’s Choice

The Dodgers are one of the best teams in baseball, and they rank atop the stacks board on both sites. They’re trending slightly under-owned, however, likely due to their high pricing as usual. They draw a first-round matchup at home with the Brewers who are starting the series off with Brent Suter opening for a bullpen game. Suter will likely throw three or four innings if he’s going well. In 2020 he put up a 2.64 xFIP with a 3.13 ERA in his 31.2 innings. He struck out 29.5% of hitters and walked just 3.9%, though it will be interesting to see him sustain that success against the Dodgers. The Brewers bullpen is strong, with a league-leading 3.71 xFIP for 2020 and a 30.4% strikeout rate. They will try to utilize these arms to cobble together a functional facsimile of an ace-level starter for the day.

The Dodgers have smashed left-handed pitching for most of 2020 with a .228 team ISO and a WRC+ 19% above average. Suter will open the game as a southpaw, but the Dodgers should see a mix of arms in this one. The Dodgers should have Mookie Betts leading off where he’s been all season, and things could get out to a hot start.

The former AL MVP had a monster year with a .292/.366/.562 slash and 16 home runs in 246 plate appearances. Betts had a .269 ISO and a WRC+ 49% overall for the year and produces on his own or sets the table for hitters behind him. Betts is an ideal component in stacks.

Shortstop Corey Seager had perhaps his best season as a professional. In his 232 plate appearances, Seager smoked everything he made contact with and put up a .307/.358/.585 slash with 15 home runs this season. He managed a .178 slash against same-handed pitching this season and was just a touch below average at a 97 WRC+. Let others skip Seager for handedness issues.

Justin Turner is a solid veteran bat on the right side of the plate. As one of the team’s less expensive bats at $4,800 on DraftKings and $3,000 on FanDuel, he’s practically mandatory just to help keep costs down. On the season, Turner hit .307/.400/.460 in his 175 plate appearances and had a WRC+ 40% above average. He’s a fine investment here.

Max Muncy and Will Smith slot into the next two spots in this lineup. Smith is extremely popular on DraftKings at 21% ownership. He’s not unplayable, but there could be better options to switch up things at the catcher spot. Smith did hit eight home runs in his 137 plate appearances this season and 15 in 196 last year. There’s nothing wrong with the bat, he just won’t get us far enough ahead of the field if he connects.

Muncy should be far less popular at just two percent ownership. He slots in at either first or third base and costs $5,100 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel. In 261 plate appearances against same-handed pitching since the start of last season, Muncy has a .241 ISO and a WRC+ 31% above average. This is a lefty who smashes lefty pitching.

Cody Bellinger also hits from the left side of the plate, and despite struggling through 2020, he does it better than anyone on this team. Bellinger is a former NL MVP who is still on the upswing of his young career. Since the start of 2019, he has a .270 ISO and a WRC+ 33% above average to go with a team-leading 21 home runs against left-handed pitching. He’s worth the salary on all sites.

A.J. Pollock is too good to be hitting this late in the lineup, but that’s the type of lineup this team has. The veteran outfielder hit .276/.314/.566 this season with 16 home runs and a WRC+ 32% above average. He’s trending under 1% ownership and is a spectacular option tonight.

Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez could both see time today or we could only get one of them. The pair both hit lefty pitching well, though Taylor is the better player overall. Both hitters slot into either second base or the outfield on DraftKings, where Taylor costs $4,500 and Hernandez is at a more affordable $3,800. On FanDuel they are highly affordable at just $3,100 and $2,500. Since the start of 2019, Hernandez has nine home runs against left-handed pitching. Is it me or do all of them feel like they were slate breaking? Taylor hit the same amount of home runs in four fewer plate appearances and put up the stronger ISO in the split with a .236 compared to Hernandez’ .168. These are solid mix-and-match options late in the lineup.

Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.

Looking for more MLB DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo MLB home page, just click HERE.

Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.