UFC 258 is headlined by Usman vs. Burns, but there are plenty of other fights to break down. This weekly Fight Analysis article will break down and analyze every matchup. Below you’ll find my data-driven analysis for each match as well as a pick to win, which will help us make UFC DFS picks and lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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UFC DFS Picks: Usman vs. Burns DraftKings + FanDuel Analysis
Usman vs. Burns
In our main event of the evening, Kamaru Usman takes on his former teammate Gilbert Burns. Usman has dominated his opposition and truly looks like a force to be reckoned with. Usman’s game revolves around high pace and dominant wrestling. No one has been able to solve the Usman puzzle in the UFC, and I’m not sure anyone will for a while. Burns has a well-rounded game with excellent striking and jiu-jitsu, but I still don’t love his chances. I always mention to prioritize main event and co-main event underdogs, so Burns is a viable GPP punt play. I will be targeting this fight in almost all of my lineups, favoring Usman heavily.
UFC DFS pick: Usman ($9,000)
Grasso vs. Barber
In our co-main event of the evening, Alexa Grasso takes on Maycee Barber, who is returning from ACL surgery. It’s always interesting to see how a professional athlete will rebound from a significant injury, and I’m intrigued to see Barber back in the cage. This is not an easy return fight for Barber since Grasso possesses excellent boxing and has proven herself in the UFC. Grasso puts together great boxing combinations, but she has a susceptibility to being taken down and controlled by her opponents. Barber should have the physicality edge here and should look to implement takedowns after her combinations. If Barber utilizes her wrestling, I think she can get a decisive victory. Standing up, Grasso has a chance at spoiling Barber’s return. I will play both sides of this fight, but sign me up for Barber at $7,900.
UFC DFS pick: Barber ($7,900)
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Gastelum vs. Heinisch
Kelvin Gastelum faces Ian Heinisch in an exciting middleweight bout. This is a pivotal fight for Gastelum since he is looking to rebound from a three-fight losing streak. Gastelum has been facing top-echelon competition for a while now and needs a win. Heinisch is looking to make a name off of Gastelum here, which would easily be the biggest win of his career. Heinisch is a threat in multiple areas of this fight and has the power to knock out Gastelum. I see Gastelum holding a skill advantage in most areas of this fight, and with elite-level experience, he is too much for Heinisch to handle. I would definitely consider Heinisch as a GPP long-shot play, but the pick is Gastelum.
UFC DFS pick: Gastelum ($8,800)
Green vs. Miller
Up next are two veterans in the UFC, with Bobby Green taking on Jim Miller. Both of these men have seen it all and competed against the best competition in the UFC. Green is an exciting fighter who enjoys to strike while shoulder-rolling and talking trash. He has surprising wrestling and an underrated ground game. Miller is a tough southpaw who throws good combinations and hard leg kicks, and he has a sharp submission game to finish his opponents. At this point in time, I think Green will have the advantage in all areas and will outwork his opponent. The one problem with Green is that he enjoys fighting so much that he often coasts, which allows his opponents to come back and nearly steal the fight from him. You could do worse than a Miller GPP pick, but I favor Green significantly.
UFC DFS pick: Green ($8,900)
Marquez vs. Pitolo
Julian Marquez is back from major lat surgery and looking to return against the dangerous Maki Pitolo. When I was previewing this card, this fight immediately jumped out to me. I feel like this bout is essential for an optimal lineup, so I will be smashing both sides. Marquez is the bigger man and possesses great knockout power and sneaky submissions. Marquez is now under the tutelage of the great James Krause, one of the best MMA minds in the business. Krause provides a thorough breakdown for each of his fighters and works a lot with them on wall-work. I think Marquez will level up under Krause, especially against the cage. Pitolo is not a pushover by any means, and I do like his volume-striking style. Pitolo puts together great combinations and is a threat to knockout anyone in the division, but he leaves himself open to the big shot. Pitolo has been finished on the mat against Darren Stewart, who Marquez choked out. I will slightly lean towards Marquez.
UFC DFS pick: Marquez ($8,700)
Vieira vs. Hernandez
Rodolfo Vieira, one of the best Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in the world, will be fighting Anthony Hernandez. Hernandez typically goes the grappling route and attempts some sneaky submissions over his opponents. I would strongly recommend Hernandez to abandon that strategy and keep this fight on the feet at all costs. Hernandez could pull off the upset via striking, but it’s an unlikely outcome. Despite Vieira being deficient in the striking department, he just needs one takedown to work towards a submission.
UFC DFS pick: Vieira ($9,300)
Muhammad vs. Lima
Belal Muhammad battles Dhiego Lima in an exciting welterweight bout. Muhammad has been slowly becoming a force in the division, by limiting his mistakes. Muhammad is not a specialist, but he has an above average skill-level in all areas. Muhammad implements great pressure, and relentless takedowns to control his opponents. Lima is notorious for having good striking but lackluster takedown defense. Lima makes a ton of mistakes under the lights, and Muhammad possesses some great fight IQ. I think Muhammad is in a sneaky smash spot on the slate.
UFC DFS pick: Muhammad ($9,200)
Martin vs. Viana
Mallory Martin takes on Polyana Viana in a sneaky fight for DFS. Martin hasn’t looked incredible in the UFC but has shown the ability to overcome adversity and work towards a finish when her back is against the wall. Martin has decent striking, but the wrestling has bailed her out of trouble. Martin should look to wrestle and implement great top pressure against Viana, who has often been put on her back. Viana has decent kickboxing and throws up multiple submissions from her back, making the arm bar from guard extremely viable. This is a low-level fight and I will have exposure to both sides, but I can foresee Martin taking Viana down en route to a victory.
UFC DFS pick: Martin ($8,600)
Gutierrez vs. Ewell
In a striker’s delight, Chris Gutierrez faces Andre Ewell. Both gentlemen are great strikers, and I’m excited to see which style will be successful in the cage. Gutierrez is a kick-dominant fighter who utilizes a lot of calf kicks. Ewell is a long southpaw and is a boxing-dominant striker. Typically when these styles clash, the kickboxer will pose many problems to the boxer due to the heavy lead foot becoming a vulnerable target for leg kicks. I think this matchup could prove to be the anomaly, though, due to Ewell’s eight-inch reach advantage. If Gutierrez goes to the kicking well too often, Ewell will make him pay with long shots down the middle. Regardless, I am excited for this matchup and will be splitting my exposure to this fight since I think the output could even exceed expectations. I have a slight lean towards Ewell, but a Gutierrez win wouldn’t surprise me in the least bit.
UFC DFS pick: Ewell ($7,800)
Simon vs. Kelleher
Up next are two exciting fighters in Ricky Simon and Brian Kelleher. Simon is a fantastic wrestler who pushes a high pace in his fights, chaining together relentless takedowns, excellent top pressure and great boxing combinations to disrupt his opponent’s rhythm. Kelleher is a decent wrestler himself, but he relies more on the power in his hands and his sneaky guillotine chokes to secure victories over his opponents. Whenever you have a takedown artist facing a guillotine master, you have to be careful. Simon should look to avoid having his neck wrapped up at all costs because Kelleher’s finishing ability is outstanding. With all of that being said, I foresee Simon taking Kelleher down at an impressive rate and winning via decision. Kelleher is a dangerous opponent, and you could do worse than his $7,100, but I think Simon has the potential to break the slate.
UFC DFS pick: Simon ($9,100)
Rowe vs. Green
Both Philip Rowe and Gabe Green are difficult to trust because we just haven’t seen enough out of them. Green stepped up on short notice in his debut against Daniel Rodriguez and put on a good showing, proving that he is a tough opponent to put away. Rowe had to overcome adversity on the Contender Series, but he turned the fight around, and his striking looked good when he picked up the pace. Rowe will have a significant seven-inch reach advantage over Green, and I think that could be the difference maker here. Both guys like to strike, and this fight should be a part of the optimal lineup. I will smash exposure to both sides due to the questions surrounding both fighters, but I am leaning Rowe to come away with the victory.
UFC DFS pick: Rowe ($8,200)
Maverick vs. Robertson
In our first fight of the evening, Miranda Maverick takes on Gillian Robertson, and this is not an easy fight for either combatant. I was impressed with Maverick’s debut victory, and I have been awaiting her return. Robertson is a great grappler, but she is pretty one-dimensional. Maverick looks to have the more well-rounded skillset of the two, but she hasn’t been tested at the UFC level yet. The first fight of the night is an often-volatile spot, but you can truly have an advantage over the field if you pick correctly. I will say that Robertson is a phenomenal value play, even though I am siding with Maverick to get the victory. We have seen this story many times before, where a hyped prospect faces off against a tough veteran and is just not ready for that level just yet. We will have to see, but I will be targeting this fight.
UFC DFS pick: Maverick ($8,500)
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