UFC DFS Picks & Expert Predictions for UFC 263 on DraftKings & FanDuel

Welcome to Inside the Octagon, UFC fans. This weekend there is a 14-fight card in Glendale, Ariz., including a main event between Israel Adesanya and Marvin Vettori. UFC 263 should be an exciting card with some solid underdog value plays for MMA DFS lineups. Here I will offer the fights I feel have the most upside for daily fantasy purposes. Let’s dig into some DraftKings and FanDuel UFC DFS picks and analysis for UFC 263.

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UFC DFS Picks: UFC 263 Adesanya vs. Vettori 2

Fares Ziam $8,300 vs. Luigi Vendramini $7,900

Fares Ziam

Age: 24
Height: 6-foot-1
Weight: 155 lbs.
Reach: 75 ins.
Record: 11-3-0
Striking Accuracy: 47%
Betting Odds: -140

Ziam made his way to the octagon with five straight wins, among them a nasty second-round knockout of TUF veteran Abner Lloveras. However, Ziam lost his Octagon debut against Don Madge in September 2019. Ziam bounced back with a decision win over Jamie Mullarkey his next time out. He has five wins via knockout, four via submission and two via decision. Ziam will have a five-inch height advantage over Vendramini and a two-inch reach advantage. He should be the better technical striker while using his devastating knees and jab to pick Vendramini apart early.

Luigi Vendramini

Age: 25
Height: 5-foot-7
Weight: 170 lbs.
Reach: 73 ins.
Record: 9-1-0
Striking Accuracy: 42%
Betting Odds: +115

Vendramini showed hardihood in moving up to 170 pounds to fight Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos on short notice but found himself with a vicious second-round knockout loss. However, Vendramini bounced back in a big way two years later, when he knocked out Jessin Ayari in 72 seconds with a vicious head kick to earn him Performance of the Night. Vendramini has five wins via knockout and four via submission and will look to get this fight to the mat to avoid the nasty knees and vicious jab of Ziam.

The lean on DraftKings and FanDuel is Ziam. His superior striking and nasty knees will help Ziam secure a victory. However, do not sleep on Vendramini’s power and solid ground game. It is tough to get an accurate read on Vendramini, seeing as he has only had one fight since 2018.

UFC DFS Pick: Fares Ziam via Unanimous Decision

Paul Craig $6,800 vs. Jamahal Hill $9,400

Paul Craig

Age: 33
Height: 6-foot-2
Weight: 205 lbs.
Reach: 76 ins
Record: 14-4-1
Striking Accuracy: 49%
Betting Odds: +250

Craig is coming into this matchup looking to end the hype train surrounding Hill. He is a UFC veteran and riding a four-fight winning streak, which includes a knockout win over former light heavyweight champion Mauricio Rua in November. Craig has two wins via knockout and 12 wins via submission. He is a jiu-jitsu specialist, and his ground game is nasty and extremely dangerous. Craig should look to take this fight to the mat and test Hill’s ground game early.

Jamahal Hill

Age: 30
Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 205 lbs.
Reach: 79 ins
Record: 8-0-0
Striking Accuracy: 52%
Betting Odds: -300

Hill is coming off a second-round knockout win over Ovince Saint-Preux. He has an extraordinary fighting style as a southpaw striker that is extremely accurate with his punches. He prefers trading and relies on his power punches. However, against Craig he could find himself in deep waters once this fight hits the mat. Hill will want to keep this fight standing while using his accurate striking and power to try and slow Craig’s ground attack.

The lean on DraftKings and FanDuel is Craig However, this fight should be an absolute war and either fighter could get the finish.

UFC DFS Pick: Paul Craig via Second-Round Submission

Leon Edwards $9,500 vs. Nate Diaz $6,700

Leon Edwards

Age: 29
Height: 6-foot-2
Weight: 170 lbs.
Reach: 74 ins
Record: 18-3-0
Striking Accuracy: 47%
Betting Odds: -500

Edwards is fresh off a no-contest bout against Belal Muhammad in March due to an accidental eye poke from Edwards that ended the fight. Prior to the no-contest, Edwards was riding an eight-fight winning streak. Edwards is a well-rounded fighter with nasty kickboxing and solid wrestling. He has six wins via knockout, three via submission and nine via decision. Edwards should pick Diaz apart on the feet, but Diaz is tough and extremely durable, only being finished twice in his 15-year career. So expect this to be an exciting fight with plenty on fireworks.

Nate Diaz

Age: 36
Height: 6-foot-0
Weight: 170 lbs.
Reach: 76 ins
Record: 21-12-0
Striking Accuracy: 45%
Betting Odds: +375

Diaz is coming off a disappointing loss against Jorge Masvidal due to doctor’s stoppage in 2019. He is a well-rounded fighter with solid boxing and elite grappling. Diaz does his best work using his jab and crisp boxing to pick his opponents apart. However, Diaz will need to keep distance to avoid the nasty elbows of Edwards. Diaz has five wins via knockout, 11 via submission and four via decision. He is an extremely durable fighter and will bring all-out wars into the Octagon. Diaz will look to keep distance and look for openings to get Edward to the mat, where he could easily lock in a submission.

The lean on DraftKings and FanDuel is Edwards. However, this fight should be close and either fighter could get the victory. But do not sleep on Diaz, an upset over Edwards is possible. That said, this should be an extremely exciting striking display and all-out war for five rounds.

UFC DFS Pick: Leon Edwards via Unanimous Decision

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Deiveson Figueiredo 9,100 vs. Brando Moreno $7,100

Deiveson Figueiredo

Age: 33
Height: 5-foot-4
Weight: 125 lbs.
Reach: 68 ins.
Record: 20-1-1
Striking Accuracy: 56%
Betting Odds: -225

Figueiredo entered the first matchup as a -330 favorite, but Moreno pushed Figueiredo to a majority draw making this matchup closer in Vegas’ eyes. Prior to that draw, Figueiredo was on a tear, winning four fights in a row and successfully defending the belt against Alex Perez. Figueiredo has nine wins via knockout, eight via submission and three via decision. The quick turnaround in the previous fight could have played a role in both fighters not being completely prepared. Both had fought just three weeks earlier. Figueiredo should be highly motivated to give Moreno his first loss via finish.

Brando Moreno

Age: 27
Height: 5-foot-6
Weight: 125 lbs.
Reach: 70 ins.
Record: 18-5-2
Striking Accuracy: 38%
Betting Odds: +190

Moreno had looked better than ever prior to the majority draw with Figueiredo. He has beaten Brandon Royval via knockout and Kai Kara–France and Jussier Formiga via decision. Moreno is a well-rounded fighter, with technical and accurate striking and he seemingly gets better every fight. His scrambling skills are high level, as are his submission and grappling skills. Moreno has excellent cardio and should push Figueiredo to the limits once again. However, this fight should be completely different than their first meeting, with both having solid training camps and coming in fresh.

The lean on DraftKings and FanDuel is Figueiredo. However, Moreno is super dangerous on the feet with his high-pressure style. That said, If Moreno can get heavy pressure early and disrupt Figueiredo’s rhythm, he could possibly get the early knockout. Figueiredo’s experience and elite ground striking could also give Moreno his first loss via finish.

UFC DFS Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo via Third-Round KO/TKO

Israel Adesanya $9,300 vs. Marvin Vettori $6,900

Israel Adesanya

Age: 31
Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 185 lbs.
Reach: 68 ins.
Record: 20-1-0
Striking Accuracy: 49%
Betting Odds: -275

Adesanya is coming into this matchup off a disappointing loss to Jan Blachowicz at UFC 259 in March. Prior to this fight, Adesanya had been phenomenal in his UFC career, although his fight against Yoel Romero was a disappointing performance. He rebounded with an impressive knockout of Paulo Costa at UFC 253. Adesanya is a fantastic boxer with excellent movement and big power. He has 15 wins via knockout and five via decision. Adesanya will be returning to middleweight, where he has looked phenomenal. Adesanya will be patient and use his excellent movement, timing and range to pick Vettori apart.

Marvin Vettori

Age: 27
Height: 6-foot-0
Weight: 185 lbs.
Reach: 74 ins.
Record: 17-4-1
Striking Accuracy: 44%
Betting Odds: -220

Vettori is coming off a win via decision over Kevin Holland in April. He is a high-volume striker, but he lacks the finishing ability of Adesanya. Vettori is a well-rounded fighter, using pressure striking with solid grappling and dangerous submission skills. Vettori likes to bully his opponents inside the clinch. However, Adesanya will be yet another tough test, and Vettori will have trouble trying to bully Adesanya. He has two wins via knockout, nine via submission and six via decision. Vettori should use his pressure striking to slow down the attack of Adesanya.

The lean on DraftKings and FanDuel is Adesanya. However, Vettori is super dangerous on the mat, with nine wins via submission. If Vettori can get heavy pressure early and disrupt Adesanya’s rhythm, he could possibly look to shoot and lock in a submission. Although, Adesanya’s experience and elite striking should prevail.

UFC DFS Pick: Israel Adesanya via Unanimous Decision

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