Hello, UFC fans. This weekend we have an 11-fight card in Las Vegas, including a main event between Jack Hermansson and Marvin Vettori for Vegas 16. The main GPP has $100,000 going to first place with a total of $400,000 being paid out. Here I will offer the fights I feel have the most upside for MMA DFS purposes. Let’s dig into some UFC DFS picks and analysis for DraftKings and FanDuel.
UFC DFS: Vegas 16 Hermansson vs. Vettori | DraftKings + FanDuel
Ilia Topuria $9,000 vs. Damon Jackson $7,200
Ilia Topuria
- Age: 23
- Height: 5-foot-6
- Weight: 145 lbs.
- Reach: 69 ins
- Record: 9-0-0
- Striking Accuracy: N/A
- Betting Odds: -230
Topuria has heavy hands and elite wrestling. He is Currently on a nine-fight winning streak heading into to his bout with Jackson. His most recent victory was back in October. That saw him step up on short notice to fight Youssef Zalal, whom Topuria dominated to seal a decision win. Topuria has one knockout, seven submissions and one decision on his resume, along with seven first-round finishes. He successfully landed five takedowns in his last fight. Although, due to Jackson’s submission threat, Topuria should keep this fight standing.
Damon Jackson
- Age: 32
- Height: 5-foot-9
- Weight: 145 lbs.
- Reach: 71 ins.
- Record: 18-3-1
- Striking Accuracy: N/A
- Betting Odds: +190
Jackson is coming off an impressive submission victory over Mirsad Bektic back in September. Jackson is a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and is extremely dangerous when the fight hits the mat. His resume shows that he has three wins via knockout, 14 by submission and one by decision. He will be looking to add another win to his resurgence in the UFC. However, Jackson will have trouble avoiding the heavy hands of Topuria.
My preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is Topuria. I expect Topuria’s heavy hands and power to put Jackson’s lights out early.
UFC DFS Pick: Ilia Topuria via Second-Round KO/TKO
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Roman Dolidze $8,700 vs. John Allan $7,500
Roman Dolidze
- Age: 32
- Height: 6-foot-2
- Weight: 205 lbs.
- Reach: 76 ins.
- Record: 7-0-0
- Striking Accuracy: N/A
- Betting Odds: -190
Dolidze is coming off an impressive first-round knockout win over Khadis Ibragimov. The one concern with Dolidze is he does not throw enough volume most of the time. However, Dolidze is averaging 4.47 significant strikes per minute. Dolidze throws powerful overhands that can also put anybody in the divisions lights out when landed clean. He is also a grappling world champion, so he is dangerous on the canvas and won his first three fights via submission. Dolidze will be the better fighter in this fight, with the clear advantage across the board.
John Allan
- Age: 27
- Height: 6-foot-1
- Weight: 205 lbs.
- Reach: 75 ins.
- Record: 13-5-0
- Striking Accuracy: N/A
- Betting Odds: +165
Allan beat Mile Rodriguez at ESPN+ 13 in August 2019. However, the victory was later overturned to a no contest after Allan tested positive for tamoxifen. He was issued a suspension by USADA. Allan is a technical fighter, with punching power that has produced knockouts in seven of his last nine wins. However, Allan has not fought since August of 2019, so it will be interesting to see if such a long layoff has affected him in the Octagon. Allan will want to keep this fight standing, although he will have problems keeping Dolidze from taking this fight the canvas.
My preferred DraftKings and FanDuel play is Dolidze. Dolidze’s power and grappling will overpower Allan and finish him in the early rounds.
UFC DFS Pick: Roman Dolidze via Second-Round KO/TKO.
Ovince Saint Preux $8,800 vs. Jamahal Hill $7,500
Ovince Saint Preux
- Age: 37
- Height: 6-foot-2
- Weight: 205 lbs.
- Reach: 80 ins.
- Record: 25-14-0
- Striking Accuracy: 43%
- Betting Odds: +140
Saint Preux is coming off a second-round knockout win over Alonzo Menifield at UFC Vegas 9. This will be Saint Preux’s third fight this year. He will be looking to put together back-to-back wins for the first time since 2017. He is an extremely dangerous striker, with devastating knockout power in both hands and nasty leg kicks. Saint Preux has dangerous ground and pound, so if this fight hits the canvas, Hill could find himself in a world of trouble. Though, Saint Preux should keep this fight standing while looking to unleash his power and nasty combinations to finish Hill.
Jamahal Hill
- Age: 29
- Height: 6-foot-3
- Weight: 205 lbs.
- Reach: 79 ins.
- Record: 6-0-0
- Striking Accuracy: 45%
- Betting Odds: -160
Hill is coming off a first-round knockout win over Klidson Abreu. However, the victory was overturned when Hill tested positive for marijuana. Hill is a tricky southpaw striker and extremely accurate with his punches, which have produced three knockout victories. He prefers to stand up and rely on his power punches, but against Saint Preux he could find himself in deep waters. In this fight, Hill will want to keep this fight standing while using his accurate striking and power to land a clean shot to slow Saint Preux attack.
My preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is Saint Preux, who will use his powerful striking and unique combinations to seal the win.
UFC DFS Pick: Ovince Saint Preux via Second-Round KO/TKO.
Jack Hermansson $8,000 vs. Marvin Vettori $7,000
Jack Hermansson
- Age: 32
- Height: 6-foot-1
- Weight: 185 lbs.
- Reach: 77.5 ins.
- Record: 21-5-0
- Striking Accuracy: N/A
- Betting Odds: +120
Hermansson is currently No. 4 in the UFC middleweight rankings and is coming off a first-round submission win over Kelvin Gastelum in July. Hermanson will have a 4 1/2-inch reach advantage over Vettori, which should allow him to do damage from distance as well as from the clinch. He is a strong grappler, with three of his last four wins coming via submission. This should be a grappling battle, but Hermansson is the better grappler and the more aggressive finisher.
Marvin Vettori
- Age: 27
- Height: 6-foot-0
- Weight: 185 lbs.
- Reach: 74 ins.
- Record: 15-4-1
- Striking Accuracy: 42%
- Betting Odds: -140
Vettori is coming off an impressive first-round submission win over Karl Roberson in June. He is a high-volume striker, but he lacks the finishing ability that Hermansson possesses. Vettori is a well-rounded fighter, using pressure striking with solid grappling and dangerous submission skills. Vettori likes to bully his opponents inside the clinch and with his takedowns. However, Hermansson will be his toughest test yet, and Vettori will have trouble trying to bully Hermansson. I expect Vettori will use his pressure striking to slow down the bigger Hermansson.
My preferred MMA DFS play on DraftKings and FanDuel is Hermansson. He should use his size and reach advantage to pick Vettori apart.
UFC DFS Pick: Jack Hermansson via Fourth-Round Submission.
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