Hello MMA fans, it’s good to have UFC back and I hope everyone is doing well. This weekend, we have a 11-fight card in Las Vegas, including a main event between Tyron “The Chosen One” Woodley and Gilbert “Durinho” Burns. The main GPP has $150.000 going to first place with a total of $600,000 being paid out. The following are the fights I feel have the most upside. Let’s dig into some MMA DFS analysis.
MMA DFS Picks for UFC Apex
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Chris Gutierrez $8,300 vs. Vince Morales $7,900
Chris Gutierrez
- Age: 29
- Height: 5-foot-8
- Weight: 145 lbs
- Reach: 67 in.
- Record: 14-4-0
- Striking Accuracy: 55%
- Betting Odds: -114
Gutierrez throws nasty calf kicks that will batter his opponent’s legs. He will look to take his opponent down and get top control, using elbows to the head and heavy punches to the body. He throws nasty spinning back kicks to the head, that can put his opponents down. Gutierrez’s best path to victory is using his nasty leg kicks and slowing Morales down while looking to shoot and take him to the mat.
Vince Morales
- Age: 29
- Height: 5-foot-6
- Weight: 145 lbs
- Reach: 70 in.
- Record: 9-4-0
- Striking Accuracy: 37%
- Betting Odds: -116
Morales throws a nasty one-two, left, right hook combination that can put his opponents lights out. He is a decent grappler, but Gutierrez will have the advantage on the mat. As such, Morales’ best path to victory is to, keep the fight standing and use his combinations to get a decision win.
My preferred play is Gutierrez. He will be able to take this fight to the mat and grind out a victory.
MMA DFS Pick: Chris Gutierrez via Unanimous Decision.
Louis Smolka $7,100 vs. Casey Kenney $9,100
Louis Smolka
- Age: 28
- Height: 5-foot-8
- Weight: 135 lbs
- Reach: 68.5 in.
- Record: 16-6-0
- Striking Accuracy: 46%
- Betting Odds: +235
Smolka is a dangerous submission artist, but he also has nasty ground and pound once he has his opponents on the mat. He throws nice oblique kicks and calf kicks, and he throws a strong jab, one-two combination. Smolka’s best path to victory is taking Kenney down and trying to gain top control while looking for a submission in the scrambles.
Casey Kenney
- Age:29
- Height: 5-foot-6
- Weight: 135 lbs
- Reach: 68 in.
- Record: 13-2-1
- Striking Accuracy: 50%
- Betting Odds: -285
Kenney has nice hand speed and he throws a jab, one-two combination. He throws nasty head kicks and body kicks. I expect Kenney’s boxing to control the standup, and if he implements the same gameplan that he used against Brandon Royval, he should be able to overpower Smolka on the mat. Kenney’s best path to victory is using his boxing and controlling the standup, which should get him a decision win.
My preferred play is Kenney. He will use his boxing in controlling the standup, and he has the skill set to overpower Smolka on the mat.
UFC DFS Pick: Casey Kenney via Unanimous Decision.
Daniel Rodriguez $7,300 VS. Gabriel Green $8,100
Daniel Rodriguez
- Age: 33
- Height: 6-foot-1
- Weight: 170 lbs
- Reach: 74 in.
- Record: 10-1-0
- Striking Accuracy: N/A
- Betting Odds: -265
Rodriguez is a technical striker and his overhand left is powerful and dangerous. He throws a jab, right hook combination that will put his opponents lights out. He also has nice foot work and will switch stances. Rodriguez is a high-volume striker, using his jab, one-two, left hook in combination. Rodriguez’s best path to victory is keeping this fight standing and using his combinations to edge out the victory.
Gabriel Green
- Age: 27
- Height: 5-foot-8
- Weight: 155 lbs.
- Reach: 72.5 ins.
- Record: 9-2-0
- Striking Accuracy: N/A
- Betting Odds: +225
Green is stepping in on short notice. He is tough and has a dangerous submission game. He throws nice jab, one-two combination and will follow with heavy straight-right punches to the body and head. Green is an interesting fighter as he has no martial arts background, relying on pure raw talent. But he has been impressive on learning the skills of being a UFC fighter. Green’s best path to victory is taking this fight to the mat where it seems he will most likely have the advantage.
My preferred play is Rodriguez. He will use his technical striking to edge out a decision win. But I would have both sides of this fight, as Green is very capable on pulling off the upset.
MMA DFS Pick: Daniel Rodriguez via Unanimous Decision.
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Billy Quarantillo $8,600 vs. Spike Carlyle $7,600
Billy Quarantillo
- Age: 31
- Height: 5-foot-8
- Weight: 145 lbs
- Reach: 70 in.
- Record: 13-2-0
- Striking Accuracy: N/A
- Betting Odds: -150
Quarantillo throws a jab, right, left hook combination and he will walk his opponent down while pressuring and throwing in volume. He will throw nasty knees the body and head when in the clench. Quarantillo will throw a hook combination and will mix in uppercuts. His wrestling is good, and he will attack with a dangerous submission game once on the mat. Quarantillo’s best path to victory is taking Carlyle to the mat and using his submission game to seal a finish.
Spike Carlyle
- Age: 27
- Height: 5-foot-7
- Weight: 145 lbs
- Reach: 71 in.
- Record: 9-1-0
- Striking accuracy: N/A
- Betting Odds: +120
Carlyle is an aggressive and dangerous fighter with five of his nine wins coming in the first round. He throws nasty front kicks to the head and body and will throw a dangerous jab, straight-right hand. Carlyle will also throw a spinning back fist that if landed clean will put his opponents lights out. Carlyle’s best path to victory is to keep this fight standing and using his kicks to slow Quarantillo down.
My preferred play is Carlyle. He will use his dangerous striking and kicks to keep the distance. His takedown defense should be able to keep him off the mat. I would have both sides of this fight since Quarantillo’s submission game is dangerous and earn him a finish.
MMA DFS Pick: Spike Carlyle via First-Round TKO/KO.
Blagoy Ivanov $8,000 vs. Augusto Sakai $8,200
Blagoy Ivanov
- Age:33
- Height: 5-foot-9
- Weight: 250 lbs
- Reach: 73 in.
- Record: 18-3-0
- Striking Accuracy: 37%
- Betting Odds: -115
Ivanov is an athletic heavyweight. He has good footwork and movement in the octagon. He throws nasty oblique and calf kicks that will slow his opponents down. Ivanov throws his left, right hook combination with power and will mix in straight right and uppercuts. He was the World Sambo Champion in 2008, so he has a dangerous submission game. Ivanov’s best path to victory is taking Sakai to the mat and using top control to grind out a win.
Augusto Sakai
- Age: 29
- Height: 6-foot-2
- Weight: 265 lbs
- Reach: 77 in.
- Record: 14-1-0
- Striking Accuracy: 51%
- Betting Odds: -115
Sakai is a big heavyweight. He throws a nice one-two combination, followed by heavy hooks that have power. He is athletic for his size, but definitely not the fastest in the division. Sakai is very hittable due to the lack of footwork and movement in the octagon. He is a weak grappler and can struggle when taking to the mat. Sakai’s best path to victory is keeping this fight standing and using his striking to keep Ivanov at distance, which should keep him off the mat.
My Preferred play is Sakai. If he can keep this fight standing and use his power striking, he has a real shot for the knockout win.
MMA DFS Pick: Augusto Sakai via Second-Round TKO/KO.
Tyron Woodley $8,800 vs. Gilbert Burns $7,400
Tyron “The Chosen One” Woodley
- Age: 38
- Height: 5-foot-8
- Weight: 170 lbs
- Reach: 74 in.
- Record: 19-4-1
- Striking Accuracy: 48%
- Betting Odds: -192
Woodley is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Din Thomas. He was a former NCAA Division I All-American in wrestling, winning the Big 12 Championship. He is a huge welterweight and he throws a right hook that is powerful and dangerous when landed clean. Woodley is a tremendous athlete. He is so fast and has probably the heaviest hands in the division. His best path to victory is doing what he does best: picking his opponents apart with his fast hands, speed and accuracy.
Gilbert “Durinho” Burns
- Age:33
- Height: 5-foot-8
- Weight: 170 lbs
- Reach: 71 in.
- Record: 18-3-0
- Striking Accuracy: 44%
- Betting Odds: +157
Burns is a second-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and he throws a nasty straight-left, right hook combination. Burns likes to keep coming forward and pressuring his opponents, while always looking for the takedown. He will throw hard round kicks to the body and head. He is dangerous off his back, always looking to lock in arm bars and triangles. Burns’ best path to victory is keeping Woodley at distance and using his kicks and feints to keep him guessing.
My preferred play is Woodley. He is the better athlete and has the hand speed and wrestling to put Burns in uncharted waters. But anything can happen in the UFC, so I would have a few shares of Burns in my lineups.
UFC DFS Pick: Tyron Woodley via Second-Round TKO/KO.
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