Welcome to The Takedown, UFC fans. This weekend we have a 15-fight card in Las Vegas, including a main event between Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis. The main GPP has $100,000 going to first place with a total of $400,000 being paid out. Here I will offer the fights I feel have the most upside for MMA DFS purposes. Let’s dig into some DraftKings and FanDuel UFC DFS picks for UFC Vegas 19: Blaydes vs. Lewis.
UFC Vegas 19: Blaydes vs Lewis DraftKings + FanDuel DFS Picks
Core MMA DFS Plays
Curtis Blaydes | DraftKings: $9,400, FanDuel 23
Blaydes is the biggest favorite on this card, and he is also the most expensive fighter on DraftKings. However, Blaydes lands 6.61 takedowns per fight and is an extremely explosive athlete. Inside the distance for this fight is -280 and this fight should end inside distance. Factoring all this in, Blaydes makes a solid overall play in cash games and GPPs. Awesemo’s UFC DFS projections give Blaydes 79% win odds with a 59% chance for a knockout.
Chris Daukaus | DraftKings: $8,600, FanDuel: $20
This will be a huge step up in competition for Daukaus, and with a victory, he could possibly move up into the top 10 rankings. He has fast hands with huge power and is coming into this matchup with back-to-back first-round knockouts. Daukaus projects to be highly owned, but with his finishing ability and a possible 60-second bonus, he is well worth going with ownership. Our UFC DFS projections give Daukaus 64% win odds with a 56% chance for a knockout.
Mid-Priced MMADFS Picks
Jamall Emmers | DraftKings: $8,800, FanDuel: $20
Emmers is a high-volume striker, and he is landing 5.24 significant strikes per minute. Emmers is also landing a solid 3.7 takedowns per fight, and Chas Skelly’s takedown defense is a weak at 34%. Vegas expects this fight to go to decision, but with Emmers’ takedown and volume upside, he stills has a path to a solid score. Our UFC DFS projections give Emmers 68% win odds.
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Drako Rodriguez | DraftKings: $8,700, FanDuel: $19
Rodriguez comes from a boxing background, and he throws big punches with knockout power. That said, Rodriguez also has a solid grappling game with a nice submission attack. Rodriguez will pressure Aiemann Zahabi and back him up against the cage while throwing bombs. Rodriguez is live for a knockout and a submission, which makes him a solid mid-priced play. Awesemo’s UFC DFS DraftKings and FanDuel give Rodriguez 63% odds.
Value MMA DFS Picks
Luis Pena | DraftKings: $7,200, FanDuel: $13
This is a risky value play, because of Pena being so inconsistent of late in his bouts. However, I expect Pena will score well in any form of victory and is live for a knockout. That said, Pena will have a five-inch reach advantage, and his striking is dangerous with big power. I expect this fight to be much closer than the Vegas odds suggest, especially if Pena finds his rhythm in this fight. Our UFC DFS DraftKings and FanDuel projections give Pena 39% win odds.
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