UFC Betting Picks: UFC 258 Usman vs Burns MMA Odds + Expert Bets

The UFC is back for another PPV card in Las Vegas with Kamaru Usman squaring off against Gilbert Burns for the Welterweight belt. We’ve got plenty of fights to check out and break down the UFC odds and betting picks.

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UFC Odds + Betting Picks | UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns

UFC Betting Pick: Gillian Robertson By Submission +350

Miranda Maverick looks like a good prospect but I still have questions about her. We haven’t seen her defend a takedown or fight off her back in the UFC. She is still a green prospect and, if she has weaknesses in her ground game, this is something Gillian Robertson could exploit. All of Robertson’s victories in the UFC have come from her grappling. In six wins in the organization, four are by submission while one was via a ground and pound finish. In what is lined as a close fight, Robertson has a defined path to victory. If she gets this fight to the ground, I think she is somewhat likely to get a finish. Maverick will beat her up on the feet if Robertson can’t land takedowns and gain top position.

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UFC Betting Pick: Rodolfo Vieira By Submission -190

Vieira is one of the most accomplished BJJ practitioners in UFC history and he should have a simple game plan for this fight. Pressure, look for a takedown and a finish should come fairly easily if he can get on top of Anthony Hernandez. In Vieira’s first two UFC fights, he’s found submissions fairly easily in the first and second round. His stand up game is still very suspect and had a pretty bad cut opened up over his eye in his last fight against Saparbeg Safarov. Luckily for Vieira, I don’t think Anthony Hernandez is a fighter that will give him issues. The only time Hernandez was taken down in the UFC, he was finished fairly easily by Markus Perez. I think this fight will resemble that one.

[DAYTONA]

UFC betting Pick: Kamaru Usman By Decision +115

I think this is a more favorable matchup for Usman than most other people seem to think. Gilbert Burns went on a winning streak to get a title shot, but in hindsight, his wins don’t look that impressive. Of his last four wins over Tyron Woodley, Demian Maia, Gunnar Nelson and Aleksei Kunchenko, those opponents have combined for a total of zero UFC wins since losing to Burns. He caught each of those fighters at the perfect time as they were on the decline. All of those matchups are ones that Usman either has or would win easily.

Another key factor here is that Burns does not have good takedown defense at 50%. For this reason, I think Usman should take him down at will. Burns is a very high level submission grappler, but we haven’t seen him find a ton of success off his back in the past and Usman is very dominating from the top position. He controls opponents and doesn’t give much space to allow for submission attempts. Even so, I think he’s going to get cautious in tight space with Burns which should extend the length of this fight. This is why I think this fight goes to the scorecards with Usman winning with control time.

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Author

Greg Ehrenberg

Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.