The unofficial official start to the 2020 NASCAR Cup season begins tomorrow at Daytona with the Busch Clash, which means our first NASCAR DFS slate of 2020.
It’s official as it is the first race in 2020. But it’s unofficial because the race is meaningless with no results from this race having implications on the 2020 season. It’s great to have racing back since we last saw Kyle Busch crowned in Miami. However, what happens tomorrow afternoon will mean zilch come Thursday, much less next Sunday.
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Clash Implications for DFS
Alas, it’s the meaninglessness of this race that makes it tricky to analyze. Not only do we have the plate race aspect of this event, we have to consider the following:
- The only place that matters is finishing first (prize money).
- The field is cut in half. In Sunday’s case, only 18 drivers are racing in the Clash.
- Some drivers hate this exhibition race. In retrospect, they hate this race because they hate plate races. Money aside, it is one more opportunity to wreck and get injured.
If NASCAR were committed to giving the fans a fun exhibition race, they would employ the Daytona road course. However, when you consider time and effort to set up the road course, I doubt Daytona would make that investment for an hour-long race with a shrunken field. Another sticking point I have is the length of the Clash: 75 laps. In time, it boils down to just an hour of racing, but this is on top of the hours of Daytona 500 qualifying fans have just sat through. Cut the laps in half and literally no one would complain.
Regardless, the criteria that exist are what we have to build around. Thus, let’s get into lineup building strategies for cash and tournaments.
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Cash Roster Construction
The answer to this riddle isn’t how but more why? As in, why are you playing cash when your roster is a third of the field? When fields are this small, you exponentially increase your chance of not cashing by rostering just one wrong driver. Furthermore, nearly everyone else posting or picking up NASCAR DFS head-to-head games knows the “start drivers in the back” roster method. In all likelihood, you will be matching four or even five drivers and praying that your one or two different drivers outscore theirs.
If this PSA still hasn’t dissuaded you, then just start drivers 13th through 18th on the starting grid. It’s as simple as that. This will lock you into the safest floor possible as they can lose the smallest amount of place differential. They also have the most theoretical upside because of that same place differential. Fast forward a week and we’ll talk up using the “Solomon Method” for cash. This week, you just need to stick to the back.
If that’s too simple for you, then adjust the above method a hair. Choose five drivers from that same starting range and use your final roster spot on someone else starting 10th through 12th.
GPP Roster Construction
If you loved my dumbed-down answer for who to play in cash, you’ll love my answer for tournaments. Everyone is in play. It’s the nature of Daytona that makes everyone playable. Anyone can win. Anyone can end up on their roof, just ask Clint Bowyer. However, the strategy for winning a tournament isn’t to play everyone or throw darts. For me, you need to establish a few things for yourself going into tomorrow’s race.
First, establish a core of four or five drivers from 10th or beyond who will be in every lineup you create, drivers you legitimately see moving up into the top five by the end of the race. If you’re going to give yourself a realistic shot at winning one of these tournaments, you need a strong core with as few deviations as possible. It may seem like spreading ownership around is the best way to nail first place. However, in these small-field events, you have to hammer ownership in order to gain leverage over the field.
Every driver is going to be owned to some extent. Taking a strong stand on multiple drivers is how you’ll differentiate yourself from the field. The majority of your core should come from 10th and beyond to jump on upside as the only scoring factor that will matter more than finishing position is place differential.
P.S. if you’re worried about hammering ownership with more than half of your lineup, remember what sort of race you’re max entering. Safety checked out a while ago.
Second, your final one or two spots need to be drivers who will contend for the win. The farther up the grid we go, the less place differential these drivers can gain. Thus, we need the benefit of whatever laps-led points they can scrape together as well as those premier finishing position points.
With these two points in mind, let’s go over a few of my favorite drivers for each of these categories for your NASCAR DFS lineups.
NASCAR DFS: Core Plays
Denny Hamlin, 18th ($9,600 DraftKings/ $11,500 FanDuel) – Last year’s Daytona 500 winner will be the highest-owned driver on both’s sites and deservedly so. Not only does he have the most place differential to gain, but he’s won this event twice since 2014.
Kurt Busch, 17th ($7,700 DraftKings/ $8,000 FanDuel) – From 2013 through 2017, Busch managed to wreck out of this race three of four times. However, since then he has back-to-back top-three finishes. Perhaps it was pure randomness or Busch has figured something out. His average starting position over the past three years is 15.33 — nearly reflecting his spot tomorrow. Expect Busch to maneuver forward early and hopefully avoid possible chaos at the end.
Joey Logano, 13th ($9,800 DraftKings/ $12,000 FanDuel) – If Hamlin starting dead last wasn’t going to make this race chalky enough, Logano will. Logano isn’t that far back comparatively. However, he starts in the teens and has four straight top-three finishes in Clash races. Logano is moving forward and will probably take Penske teammate Ryan Blaney (14th) with him.
NASCAR DFS: Contender Picks
Ryan Newman, first ($5,600 DraftKings/ $8,000 FanDuel) – It makes no sense to recommend the pole sitter in a plate race but, stick with me. The “start everyone in the back” game theory is overdone. People will go out of their way to avoid Newman on the pole, thus, making Newman the lowest-owned player on either site.
Now, we don’t just play drivers because of pure ownership. It’s the fact that the proclaimed hardest driver to pass in NASCAR is on the pole. If this race looks anything close to last year’s Clash, then we’re in store for lots of single-file racing. If you remember, only when the threat of rain approached did any actual racing occur. Tomorrow’s forecast is sunny with no chance of rain. The scenario goes Newman on the pole jumps out to the lead, sits on it and ends the day with 65-70 laps led. That is crazy but possible for the driver with the best average finish in superspeedway races last year (seventh).
Aric Almirola, fifth ($6,900 DraftKings/ $8,000 FanDuel) – Like Newman above, Almirola is the only other driver who can boast three top-10 finishes in superspeedway races last season. Almirola has always been a good plate racer and his starting position puts him in an odd place for fantasy players. He’s not in the no-man’s area like Newman or Brad Keselowski. However, he’s far from being safe like Logano, Hamlin or Austin Dillon. I like Almirola’s chances to hold static and make a move late to steal a win.
-Good luck, NASCAR DFSers
