NASCAR DFS Picks: Food City Dirt Race on DraftKings + FanDuel 3/28

The field is set for Sunday’s dirt race at Bristol. Let’s dive into this week’s top NASCAR DFS plays for the Food City Dirt Race.

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Quick Roster Construction Thoughts

How do I put this bluntly… we’re all driving into turn one with mud on our windshields. It sounds a lot like the first lap of the Trucks Heat Race, right? Unfortunately, that’s the way I feel. Heck, I hate to be so blunt, but all of our worst dreams have come true this week. We thought we might have a clue as to how this dirt oval was going to race based on Friday’s practice sessions. However, after all of the rain and more on the way, who knows at this point.

Based on the forecast for Bristol, Tennesse – I’m just going to assume that the Bristol we saw on Saturday is what we’re getting Sunday. Unless the Sunday rain is so bad, the event gets pushed to Monday. I’m also going to consider something Chase Briscoe said during a red flag interview. He thought everyone would pile up going into turn one, and that was just with 11 Trucks on the track. What will happen when we’ve got 40 cars all inches apart going into a tight turn-one?

With all of these unknowns, combined with the impending chaos, I think approaching Sunday’s race like a superspeedway event is both safe and prudent. Thus, choosing drivers with place differential is going to give our lineups built-in safety. That’s something I desperately want for tomorrow’s Bristol event. I can’t necessarily rule out dominators, though, because it’s way too easy for the leader to check out. However, for the most part, I’ll be building NASCAR DFS lineups where scoring is achieved through finishing position and place differential. I will have exposure to one, maybe two, dominators per lineup. However, the bulk of my drivers will be place differential oriented.

Food City Dirt Race NASCAR DFS Picks

Kyle Larson, 1st ($14,000 FanDuel, $12,000 DraftKings) GPP (Dominator)

Simply put, Larson is the class of this field, and I’m not scared off by him starting in the rear due to his engine change. He’s going to have to play the waiting game getting around everyone. However, in the process of that, he’ll lay down plenty of fastest laps. Not to mention, we know we’re getting guaranteed competition cautions at lap 50 and a stage break at lap 100. Furthermore, we should have plenty of early cautions for single or multiple cars spins in the turns.

This is all to say, Larson will have ample opportunities to work with bunched fields and work his way back up front. Once he ascends to the lead, he can use his talent to keep his top-tier vehicle out front. In the first and second practice, Larson showed he had the best long-run speed of anyone with minimal falloff compared to the field.

Denny Hamlin, 2nd ($11,500 FanDuel, $9,100 DraftKings) GPP (Dominator)

In an interview yesterday, Hamlin made an astute observation. He stated, before all of the rain, mind you, that the dirt was making Bristol race like a slower version of itself. Well, we can throw that comparison out initially. However, we could see this dirt dry out with enough time and an actual layer of rubber build-up. If that happens, then in tournaments, I’ll want exposure to Hamlin, who won the Fall-2019 Bristol event. Furthermore, when the track was dry, Hamlin was laying down consistently fast times, especially in longer runs.

Austin Dillon, 9th ($10,000 FanDuel, $9,700 DraftKings) GPP (Dominator)

My only question for Dillon is, was he sandbagging in practice? His numbers all look eerily similar to Josh Billicki and Cody Ware which should be a red flag. However, Dillon ran nothing longer than a 10-lap run in either practice. This suggests that Dillon went out to get a casual feel for the track, get accustomed to the exit and entry points in the Cup cars, and then get off the track with a clean car.

As recently as last week, Dillon was on this track and competed for a win in his particular class. Thus, I presume his plan on Friday was just to go and get a feel for the track in a different vehicle and then show his dirt-track expertise in his heat race. Unfortunately, we never got to the latter, so now we have the driver with the third-best odds to win via DraftKings Sportsbook, starting ninth. With Larson out of the picture initially, it feels like nothing should stop Dillon from being an early favorite to lead laps at a somewhat depressed salary.

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Joey Logano 10th ($8,300 DraftKings) GPP

I’m listing Logano as DraftKings centric play this week because his $11,000 salary on FanDuel is tough to justify. However, nearly $2,000 off his normal price on DraftKings, we’re in a spot with Logano where if he can grab a top-five, then he works out at just $8,300. Coming from the northeast, Logano’s exposure to dirt racing has been minimal at best, and quite frankly, the bulk of it has come this year in preparation for the dirt race. However, Logano appears to be a quick learner, and he was laying down top-ten speeds in the first practice session.

Christopher Bell, 15th ($13,500 FanDuel, $11,000 DraftKings) Cash/ GPP (Dominator)

As much as I like to hype up the Austin Dillon play, especially early, the real contender to lead the first segment will be the three-time Chili-Bowl champion, Christopher Bell. Bell opened up as the driver with the second-highest odds, and if Larson were to have some issue due to his engine swap, Bell could run away with this event. He showed plenty of speed in the two practice sessions, so you know the JGR powerplant is putting down plenty of power. Combine that with his dirt track resume, and Bell should be one of our top-two dominators.

Corey Lajoie, 30th ($2,000 FanDuel, $5,000 DraftKings) Cash

One of the odder pricing decisions by both sites was how low they went on Lajoie. I previously mentioned Austin Dillon racing at the Bristol Dirt Nationals. The buried lede is that Lajoie was his teammate in that event, although his night didn’t go nearly as swimmingly as Dillon’s did. Regardless, we’re getting Lajoie this far back at this salary with some previous knowledge of how this track runs. It sounds like a nice way to round out a cash team if you need to dip this far.

Dirty Cash in the Rear

Thanks to the heat races getting canceled, all of our “ringers” find themselves starting 30th or worse. This will tend to make lineups a little chalkier. However, if you’re looking to avoid chalk, be sure to check out Alex’s Top Driver Tool.

As far as why you should play any or all of these drivers, it’s simple – they offer place differential paired with upside based on their past dirt track experience. As far as cash games go, here is how I would rank those drivers when driver, equipment, and salary are all considered.

Stewart Friesen, 32nd ($8,500 FanDuel, $9,500 DraftKings)
Chris Windom, 36th ($6,500 FanDuel, $7,400 DraftKings)
Shane Golobic, 35th ($5,500 FanDuel, $6,800 DraftKings)
Mike Marlar, 38th ($7,200 DraftKings)
Ty Dillon, 39th ($2,500 FanDuel, $6,600 DraftKings)
JJ Yeley, 34th ($2,500 FanDuel, $6,400 DraftKings)

All of these drivers have years of dirt racing experience compared to the field. While I’m highlighting them as cash plays because of where they start and how high they could finish, don’t be afraid to use all of them in tournaments. If the Food City Dirt Race becomes a war of attrition, betting on drivers who have waged these wars in the past could be your best bet.

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Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com