The field is set for Sunday’s race at Michigan with Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott on the front row, and, as always, we’ve got the best NASCAR DFS tips, based on Awesemo’s expert projections. Thus, let’s jump into this week’s top NASCAR DFS plays, on DraftKings and FanDuel, for the FireKeepers Casino 400.
Firekeepers Casino 400 NASCAR DFS Picks for DraftKings + FanDuel
Kyle Larson, 1st ($11,500 DraftKings, $14,500 FanDuel) | GPP (Dominator), Cash
The five-time winner, in 2021, makes his triumphant return to the track with his most career Cup victories. For a stretch in NASCAR history, Larson was one of the best drivers at two-mile superspeedways. This included a victory at Auto Club Speedway (2017) and three straight at Michigan from August 2016 through August 2017. He won a variety of ways during that three-race stretch, including the June 2017 race in which he started on the pole.
On Sunday, Larson finds himself in familiar territory on the pole once more. Three times this season, Larson has been the polesitter. In two of those races, he led the most laps (Charlotte and Sonoma) and went on to win the event. The other race was the unfortunate first Pocono event where he was one turn away from making it a third race where he started first and ended there as well.
It’s been well documented how much better Larson has been in this package against the field, in 2021, with two victories and what could have easily been three more. Through eight races in the 550-horsepower package, he still overwhelming leads the field in terms of driver rating (122.7), fastest laps (43.6) and laps led per race (106). Everything has fallen into place to set up Larson for success and still pay off the highest salary across both sites. Via, the Top Driver Tool, Larson has a 53.2% likelihood of being a top-two dominator.
Tires being used at Michigan:
– D-4964 on the left side (same as last year)
– D-4966 on the right side (used at Kansas and Las Vegas this year)
Kyle Larson had the dominant car at both Las Vegas and Kansas. #NASCAR #FantasyNASCAR
— Fantasy Racing Online (@FanRacingOnline) August 17, 2021
Kyle Busch, 7th ($10,800 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel) | GPP (Dominator), Cash
Kyle Busch’s last six results at Michigan: 4th, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 5th, 4th
Kyle Busch’s results this season in the low-horsepower package: 10th, 3rd, 5th, 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 2nd
However DFS players slice it, that is top-end consistency. At Michigan, Busch continually runs in the top 10 and even in a down season last year, found his way to top-5 finishes. In this 550-horsepower package, Busch has failed to finish any worse than third since his victory at Kansas. Granted, his dominator points for the year pale in comparison to Larson. Yet, since the supposed crackdown by NASCAR in the week between Nashville and Pocono races, Kyle Busch has gone on to win, finish second twice and lead the most laps in all three races. With speed and performance trending on Busch’s side, it’s hard to bet against Busch and him getting his first Michigan win since 2011.
Brad Keselowski, 20th ($9,800 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel) GPP, Cash
Could a lone driver lead the majority of Sunday’s race? Sure, it happened in the June 2019 race in which the polesitter (Joey Logano) led 163/203 laps. Could the race get cut short due to rain and only one’s drivers dominator points matter enough to roster them? Absolutely, and don’t be shocked if the weather plays with Sunday’s results.
This is all to say, single-dominator builds will have their merit, especially in cash games. In these lineups, pivoting up top from a second high-priced lap leader to someone with top-five potential and place differential makes sense. Keselowski fits this bill, starting 20th, as a driver who could outscore potential dominators on the back of his place differential. As noted above, this Michigan race will be using the Las Vegas/Kansas tire combo, races that Keselowski finished top-three in both. For whatever it’s worth, Ford has won six straight at Michigan. Keselowski is +1400 to see that streak continue to seven.
Michael McDowell, 25th ($6,000 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) | Cash
Finding value, especially on DraftKings, for cash games is tough this week. Practically every driver with a modicum of place differential got priced up. Ryan Preece, who starts 32nd, got priced up to $7,500 this week on DraftKings. Even Ross Chastain, in the 22nd starting spot, is nearly $8,000 this week.
Thus, for the purpose of rounding out cash games, McDowell enters the fray. Unfortunately, he has no particular upside and carries no tournament label in the Race Sheets. However, for the sake of cash games, he has a usable floor and that’s what DFS players need in head-to-head games or double-ups. If he can just pick up a few spots, possibly finish within the top 20, then he will be fine, and fine is all that’s needed in cash.
In this same ilk of driver, Anthony Alfredo is semi-interesting as a “last driver in” for cash game purposes as well. Starting 36th, he has access to place differential neither of these two drivers has while having better equipment than Lajoie. Through eight races in the 550-horsepower package, Alfredo’s best finish is 23rd (Kansas) while his average finish sits at 26.1. If Alfredo matches his average, he’ll score 24 DraftKings points and end up in the same range as Lajoie and McDowell. Current fantasy point projections give the nod to Alfredo at 25.3 DraftKings points.
Christopher Bell, 28th ($8,100 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel) | GPP, Cash
Bell comes in curiously underpriced on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week. In a race with just 200 laps, finding drivers with bankable place differential is going to be key. For whatever reason, both DraftKings and FanDuel seem content with allowing DFS players to have this asset at a discount. Consider this, on DraftKings, Bell is just $300 more than Daniel Suarez, who starts two positions further back.
This discount makes him a block play in cash on either site. Current projections have Bell at 44% ownership on DraftKings and 34% on FanDuel. Regardless, Bell makes his first real start at Michigan for Joe Gibbs, a venue where the Toyota power has propelled JGR to nine top-5 finishes over the past two seasons. In the quasi-affiliated 95 last year, Bell finished 13th and 17th in back-to-back Michigan races. Expect that number to crawl into the top-10 range now that he’s in the 20.
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