GEICO 500 NASCAR DFS Picks for DraftKings Monday Slate

It’s a new day! It’s also a new NASCAR DFS slate — well, not really. Due to Sunday’s postponement, DraftKings has released a new “post-lock” slate for the GEICO 500. Neither salaries nor positions have changed. The only new piece of information we have is ownership from the major contests on DraftKings.

So let’s dive into the largest contest, “The Big One”, and view where ownership is centered. We’ll have an idea of where players were focusing their own ownership and what pivots you can make should you play contests that lock later this afternoon. Remember, nothing has changed from yesterday to today that would make Joey Logano that much more likely to lead laps or Brendan Gaughan to gain 30 spots. This is a zoomed-out view to see what you can do differently today to give yourself differentiation.

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The Big One Ownership

The below numbers are taken from the large $1.25 Million dollar tournament on Draftkings. I believe this will give us the best view at where players and the NASCAR DFS industry groupthink had landed before lock Sunday.

The NASCAR DFS Chalk

Unsurprisingly, the three highest-owned drivers come from the 30s. My presupposition on Saturday was for Ty Dillon to be the highest-owned driver, not the third. Shockingly, it was Brendan Gaughan who garnered the title of Captain Chalk with Christopher Bell not too far behind him. I call Gaughan Captain Chalk because he was 85% owned in the 20-entry, $1 double-up. For a driver who races only superspeedway races for a part-time team, that feels like insanity.

If you had any questions about people utilizing “start drivers in the back”, this should be all the confirmation you need. Most players, it appears, went with three names they recognized in the rear before making diverging decisions. I’m not convinced that casual players know who Gaughan is, though. I believe his ownership is wholly a result of the NASCAR DFS echo chamber touting him.

What did surprise me were the fourth-, fifth- and sixth-highest-owned drivers. The trio of Joey Logano, Chase Elliott and Aric Almirola all need to make their days today with laps led and finishing position since they offer few place differential points. With each of them garnering ownership above 28%, it seems a lot of players had a single-dominator build in mind. When you go down the ownership list with Ryan Blaney at 23% and Brad Keselowski at 20%, you get the confirmation even further that people wanted a lap leader in their lineups.

Drivers With No Love

As should be expected, the drivers with the lowest ownership were the backmarkers most people don’t want to play week to week. Quin Houff was in the basement with just 2% ownership although he started 32nd. Just above him was Brennan Poole starting 27th but only getting selected 3% of the time. The real shock was seeing veteran Matt Kenseth at just 3% ownership himself. Yes, Kenseth’s 13th starting position made him a tournament option, and not a great one at that. However, the fact that only 3% of the field decided to play Kenseth speaks volumes about how the general public feels about the 47-year-old.

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Lap Leader Pivots

Before I go any further, let me make an important point. These pivots are taking yesterday’s ownership and trying to find plays with similar or more fantasy upside but at lower potential ownership. In these postponed slates we’ve seen the top-owned drivers see their numbers come down relative from Sunday to Monday. Yet they still end up being the most rostered drivers in the new slate.

Ryan Newman, 14th ($6,700 DraftKings) – Thirteen percent ownership for a driver with Talladega finishes of second, seventh, 25th and ninth over the past two years is bananas. In those four races, he’s had a top-eight DraftKings score three times. He offers you place differential, just one fewer than the much-chalkier Aric Almirola, and is a real threat to lead laps if not win.

Alex Bowman, 8th ($8,200 DraftKings) – Everybody loves Chase Elliott but nobody wants to be friends with Bowman. It may be noise or it might a trend, but Bowman is trending to be a Spring Talladega racer as opposed to the Fall race. In his past two Spring races at Talladega, he has finishes of second and eighth while finishing 37th and 33rd in the fall races. At just 8% ownership, there is a lot of juice to squeeze before he even remotely becomes a popular play.

Kurt Busch, 7th ($8,500 DraftKings) – We go from a possible spring/fall splits driver to one that races differently at Talladega versus Daytona. Dating back to 2016, Busch has multiple top-10 finishes, including sixth place last year in this same race and second the year before. Erstwhile, his numbers at Daytona are riddled with finishes in the 20s and 30s. At 11% ownership, this number may in fact go down as people ponder his fantasy ceiling.

Place Differential Pivots

The point of pivoting off chalky place differential picks at superspeedways is because of the track’s nature. There will undoubtedly be wrecks. As much as the field loves Brendan Gaughan and Christopher Bell, no guarantee exists that these drivers won’t get caught up in a big wreck. In order for these drivers to be optimal, you need top-10 finishes as well. In that same light, Ty Dillon has lots of top-20 finishes but not a single top-10 finish at Talladega. Despite what you assume, Dillon has never once been in an optimal Talladega lineup while racing for Germain Racing.

So let’s find drivers with similar place differential upside that also could sneak in a top-10 finish at lower ownership. Oddly, it appears drivers starting 21st through 30th became a weird dead spot for ownership. Starting 20th, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. saw an absurd 27% ownership number. Yet, after Stenhouse, no one else starting 21-30 saw ownership over 16%. It was as if players decided to hammer ownership on the driver with low place differential upside that also has a propensity to wreck the entire field.

Corey LaJoie, 25th ($6,500 DraftKings) – What does a guy have to do to get some love? I thought after some weekend articles I read that LaJoie would come in much higher than his 16%. It’s not often you get a driver who’s been in the last four optimal superspeedway lineups starting 25th. However, 84% of lineups failed to roster LaJoie and that’s ludicrous.

Cole Custer, 28th ($6,000 DraftKings) – The only Cup superspeedway finish to Custer’s name is finishing 37th in this year’s Daytona 500. That is hardly predictive of what Custer is capable of doing today. Quite frankly, if you look at Custer’s Xfinity career, his numbers at either Talladega or Daytona don’t jump off the page. However, anything can and will happen. Maybe he cruises around the back with LaJoie and makes a move late into the top 10. That’s a bet worth making at just 11% ownership.

Drivers in the Single Digits

If you were looking for a driver in the single-digit ownership landscape to fall in love with, it’s hard not to consider J.J. Yeley. He has a favorable starting position (34th), and more than his fair share of experience at superspeedways. Perhaps people didn’t really consider Yeley based on his lack of recent Talladega races with only 8% ownership. Throwing a bone at Matt Kenseth isn’t the worst idea in the world either. Kenseth’s likelihood of ending up with negative points is stronger than his likelihood of being in the optimal lineup. Yet, at just 3% ownership on Sunday, it’s a small risk worth taking.

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