The field is set for Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway with Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano on the front row. Let’s jump into the top NASCAR DFS picks for your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups for the Dixie Vodka 400.
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Denny Hamlin, 1st ($13,500 FanDuel, $9,600 DraftKings) Cash/ GPP (Dominator)
Somehow, this will be Hamlin’s fifth straight pole at Homestead and sixth out of seven. In those previous six stints as the pole sitter, Hamlin’s results are OK but definitely aren’t blowing you away. He has one win (last summer) paired with no other top-five finishes, three top-tens, and 180 total laps led. However, 137 of those 180 laps led came from last summer – the race I continue to hang an asterisk on.
In other words, in those four other times that Hamlin has been the pole sitter at Homestead-Miami Speedway, he’s led on average 10.75 laps and finished 10.25. These numbers aren’t fantastic by any means, and you’ll need better for Hamlin to be a top dominator option.
Kevin Harvick, 4th ($14,000 FanDuel, $10,100 DraftKings) Cash/ GPP (Dominator)/ Core
When initial odds opened on DraftKings Sportsbook, Harvick edged out Hamlin as the early favorite. For those looking at just last year’s results, it’s hard to get behind Hamlin with his 26th-place finish. On the other hand, the No. 4 team set up a car for a muggy, sun-laden afternoon of June in Florida. What they got was an overcast, late afternoon into evening race with temperatures in the mid-70s. Obviously, their setup did not mesh with racing conditions.
As per Harvick, Homestead-Miami Speedway is a track that he had failed to finish outside of the top 10 just once since 2007. In his time at Stewart-Haas Racing, his finishes at Homestead have gone first, second, third, fourth, third, fourth, and then the miserable 26th last year. Excluding last season’s anomaly, Harvick had led at least 41 laps in every Homestead race but one (2017) while in the No. 4 car. Historically this is one of Harvick’s better tracks — probably due to this being a high-tire-wear track, and one of Harvick’s better attributes is his ability to manage fall off from tire use (think Darlington and Atlanta).
Martin Truex Jr., 10th ($12,500 FanDuel, $11,400 DraftKings) GPP (Dominator)
Truex has dominator-only appeal to me this week because of his exorbitant salary. With a price tag north of $11,000 on DraftKings, you would think Truex was starting in the mid-20s, not 10th. He’ll need to be one of the top two lap leaders in order to meet his threshold for value based on salary and fantasy points.
So is Truex capable of this task? Most definitely, excluding last season’s race (a theme I’m well aware of) Truex had come into Homestead and led totals of 103, 20 and 78 with finishes of second, second and first. Granted, these were championship scenarios for the No. 78/ No. 19 teams with a different crew chief (Cole Pearn). Regardless, Truex was able to do what he did on the track, and he should be on our periphery Sunday as a possible dominator.
Austin Dillon, 22nd ($8,000 FanDuel, $7,700 DraftKings) Cash/ GPP
Over the past three seasons at Homestead, only four drivers have finished on the lead lap in each race.
-Denny Hamlin
-Martin Truex Jr.
-Kyle Busch
-Austin Dillon 👀— Race Sheets (@RaceSheetsDFS) February 25, 2021
Sometimes you just shrug your shoulders and move on. Is there anything particular about Homestead-Miami Speedway that should play into Dillon’s hands? Not really, but maybe he likes this place as he won the Trucks (2011) and Xfinity (2013) titles here. Since Dillon’s rookie season in 2014, his Homestead finishes have gotten incrementally better culminating with seventh last year. He always manages to finish on the lead lap and due to that, he finishes high, creates place differential, and for three straight Homestead races he’s been in the optimal DraftKings lineup.
Kyle Busch, 24th ($12,200 FanDuel, $11,800 DraftKings) GPP
This is a “buyer beware” tag I’m attaching to Busch. He may entice you with his place differential. Yet as the highest-priced driver on DraftKings, you’re going to need more than just 20 place differential for Busch to be a key piece of your DFS lineups. Busch is definitively going to need to lead laps and gain fastest laps to make value because just place differential is not going to cut it. Furthermore, Busch’s bugaboo of no practice still exists, and until we can see him being a prominent factor in a race without practice, I can’t make him a core play, much less a cash play.
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Corey LaJoie, 27th ($3,000 FanDuel, $5,400 DraftKings) Cash/ GPP
Sort of by sheer default, LaJoie finds himself as the preferred value play for Sunday. Nearly everyone else in his price range is starting too far forward for my taste and is almost assured of losing place differential. LaJoie not only should hold his position but could pick up a few spots in the process.
Side note, in the latest Dale Jr. Download, LaJoie talked about Spire Motorsports partnership with Chip Ganassi Racing. His words were that his No. 7 car is about as close as you could get to it being the third Ganassi car without having Ganassi’s name on the car. If that much partnership has gone into this car, then LaJoie really does have upside to finish in the top 20.
Ross Chastain, 32nd ($6,200 FanDuel, $7,400 DraftKings) Cash/ GPP
Perhaps neither FanDuel nor DraftKings realizes that Chastain is in the No. 42 this season. Maybe both sites have weighed Chastain’s prior Homestead history a little too much into his salary. Whatever the issue is, these salaries are egregious prices for a driver in mid- to upper-tier equipment with loads of place differential.
Due to these salaries, Chastain figures to be one of the highest-owned drivers on Sunday. Truth be told, this sort of chalk could end badly considering Chastain’s tendency for aggressiveness and the need to manage tire wear. However, in 16 combined Trucks, Xfinity and Cup starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway, he’s managed to finish every single race. He has enough track history he may know to tone down how hard he wants to push his vehicle. Chastain is bordering on being a core play as of now, but I don’t want to commit to him just yet.
Matt DiBenedetto, 37th ($7,200 FanDuel, $8,800 DraftKings) Cash/ GPP
Sidebar: Enough ink will be spilled this week touting the merits of Tyler Reddick. I’m sure we will talk about him ad nauseam in the live show with Jason Floyd. The last thing you really need is one more paragraph saying you should play him in cash or tournaments.
As for DiBenedetto, the driver of the No. 21 gives you plenty of safety as a cash play, starting one spot short of dead last. He should move through the field with relative ease and spend the majority of his day in the top 20, which makes him fine for cash. Yet the question you have to ask is, will he finish high enough to merit high ownership for tournaments? His career-best finish at Homestead-Miami Speedway is 14th (2020). If he can push that number higher, his place differential will push him closer to 60 fantasy points and make him a valuable part of lineups.
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