The field is set for Sunday’s race with Brad Keselowski and Kyle Larson on the front row. Therefore, let’s jump into the top NASCAR DFS plays for the Instacart 500 at Phoenix International Raceway.
Instarcart 5o0 NASCAR DFS Picks | DraftKings and FanDuel
Brad Keselowski, 1st ($12,500 FanDuel, $10,400 DraftKings ) Cash/ GPP (Dominator)/ Core
When it comes to dominators, Keselowski is the lock-and-load play for me this week. First, he starts on the pole and the polesitter has been a consistent source of dominator points over the past five races. Since 2018, the polesitter has led on average 80.8 laps, had 35.7 fastest laps and finished no worse than seventh. Next, Keselowski was good in this 750 horsepower package last year at flatter short tracks with two wins and 80.3 laps led per race. In fact, only once did Keselowski finish outside of the top-ten in this package. That race happened to be the Spring Phoenix race, an event he led 82 laps in from the 14th starting position. The stars are aligning for Keselowski to be the top-scoring fantasy driver on either site.
Denny Hamlin, 3rd ($13,000 FanDuel, $9,900 DraftKings) Cash/ GPP (Dominator)
Hamlin may be a head case, or at least struggles when pressure is on him. Go back to his time at Homestead whenever he was part of the championship four. He was never a factor, despite numerous starts on the pole. Go back to last season here with the championship race moved to Phoenix; Hamlin starts fourth, finishes fourth, and leads zero laps throughout the day. This weekend, those cares are out the window. We get Hamlin at a track he won at as recently as the Fall of 2019. The main appeal for Hamlin this Sunday, besides not having to worry about him folding up like a cheap suit, is his price on DraftKings. He’s underpriced on DraftKings and has an easier path to meeting and exceeding value as a dominator.
Latest NASCAR DFS Content
- DraftKings NASCAR Cheat Sheet: NASCAR DFS Sims Picks for the GEICO 500 at Talladega
- NASCAR DFS Picks: Top Drivers for the GEICO 500 at Talladega (2024)
- NASCAR DFS Picks: Top Drivers for the AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Texas (2024)
- NASCAR DFS Picks: Top Drivers for the Cook Out 400 at Martinsville (2024)
- NASCAR DFS Picks: Top Drivers for the EchoPark Texas Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas (2024)
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Chase Elliott, 6th ($13,500 FanDuel, $11,500 DraftKings ) Cash/ GPP (Dominator)
It’s going to be hard to get away from Elliott, regardless of site or format this weekend. Not only did Elliott win the championship race here last season, but he finished seventh in the Spring race leading 246 combined laps in the process. In this 750 horsepower package last season at flatter tracks, Elliott led the most laps (82.3) on average with two wins.
The only concern with Elliott is what we’ve seen the past two weeks. He starts strong out of the gate and then fades. Hopefully, these woes are behind Elliott and crew chief Alan Gustafson as they transition to a package they are very comfortable with.
Kyle Busch, 7th ($11,700 FanDuel, $10,800 DraftKings ) GPP (Dominator)
This is a bet on an ascending driver returning to a track he’s very comfortable with. The past two weeks have shown us a baseline of consistency out of Busch. Now we get him returning to a track he had four Top-5 finishes (including two wins) before an 11th in last year’s championship race since the Phoenix reconfiguration. If a change in approach, resulting in a change in crew chiefs is helping Busch, then we want to be early on Busch who has averaged 72.6 laps led over the past five Phoenix races – even with zero laps led in either race here in 2020.
Kevin Harvick, 18th ($14,000 FanDuel, $11,900 DraftKings) Fade Candidate
For the love of all that is holy and good in NASCAR DFS, this is not a recommendation. Harvick has fantastic track history at Phoenix with 14 career victories, nine of those coming here in the Cup Series. However, since the reconfiguration of Phoenix in 2018, Harvick has yet to cross the finish line in first. That being said, his finishes are pretty good with no finish outside of the Top-10. At these salaries, you’re going to need more than a Top-10 finish. You’re going to need Harvick to gain dominator points and that’s just what he has failed to do since 2018.
Over the past five Phoenix events, his lap-led totals have gone 73-0-0-67-0. Those two times he led laps were also times he started on the front row. Now he starts toward the middle of the field, exactly where I pointed out in my preview we don’t find lap leaders in this 750 horsepower package. Harvick may be popular because of his history, as well as modest place differential. However, my bet is to fade an overpriced driver on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Cole Custer, 24th ($7,300 FanDuel, $6,700 DraftKings) Cash/ GPP
Much ink will be spilled echoing the merits of Tyler Reddick as a cash play. However, I do like the upside of Custer at a much more respectable price on DraftKings. We’ve already seen a top-ten out of Custer here at Phoenix and he was running top-20 for most of the championship race before finishing 28th. In a week where I’m forced to pay up for lap leaders, I need every avenue I can take to save money. Custer gives me that at $1,000+ cheaper on DraftKings. On FanDuel, with only $200 separating the two, it’s really a toss-up, and both of them projects nearly the same for me.
Anthony Alfredo, 28th ($3,500 FanDuel, $5,800 DraftKings) Cash
Another week, another Top-24 finish under Alfredo’s belt. At this rate, Alfredo is basically replicating Chase Briscoe‘s finishes for $1,500 cheaper. Thus, if you’re down below $6,000 on DraftKings and need a driver to fill out a cash roster, I say take the safety with Alfredo. Perhaps Daniel Suarez may have more upside but with no real clue how this #99 car is going to run in its first showing with the 750 horsepower package, I say take what we know in Alfredo for cash games.
Aric Almirola, 32nd ($8,000 FanDuel, $9,000 DraftKings ) Cash/ GPP/ Core (FanDuel)
On FanDuel, I feel like you just lock and load Almirola regardless of format. Since the reconfiguration of Phoenix, Almirola only has one finish outside of 13th. If he avoids trouble, as we’re expecting then he’s a top 15 car and he’s a great cash and tournament play because of his low salary. However, on DraftKings, this decision isn’t so simple. Because of the elevated salaries attached to our likely dominators, you may not be able to comfortably fit two dominators plus Almirola. In most cases, this trio will take up nearly 60% or more of your DraftKings salary cap. Thus, in DraftKings tournaments, you may have to move down the board unless you’re comfortable with our sub Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($5,500) priced punts.
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more NASCAR DFS picks content? We have loads of articles, data, cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo NASCAR home page. Just click HERE.
