The field is set for Sunday’s race at Kansas with Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick on the front row. Let’s delve into this week’s top Fantasy NASCAR picks and value plays for DraftKings and FanDuel NASCAR DFS lineups for the AdventHealth 400.
DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR Picks: Best AdventHealth 400 Values
Christopher Bell, 1st ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
One of the bigger issues DFS players will have to tackle for Sunday is how much they’re going to take Saturday’s practice times and speeds into consideration for Sunday’s race. The problem is that rain is in the forecast for Sunday morning at Kansas Speedway, with a 20-degree difference from Saturday to Sunday. Thus, will Christopher Bell and his rocketship that ranked fifth in the single lap time, and first in the five and 10 lap averages still be the same car with partly cloudy skies and a much grippier track? As per his outright odds, let the betters settle that in the street.
However, what does make sense is that with the preferred groove on a green track, Bell should be able to take an early lead and establish it well over the likes of Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, Kurt Busch, and Kyle Busch. From the pole at Las Vegas this year, Bell led 32 laps and was in the fourth position with halfway to go but fell back to 10th. At his salary, Bell doesn’t need to lead the most laps this Sunday, but if he’s going to lead a similar amount of laps then he can’t fall back nearly as far and negate his laps led points via negative place differential.
Ross Chastain, 11th ($9,700 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel)
It’ll be very interesting to see which direction the industry settles on for cash games; one lap leader plus place differential, two lap leaders plus place differential, or perhaps just place differential? Whatever direction DFS players finally settle upon, Chastain fits the mold for either lineup build. He has access to some place differential starting 11th but most importantly, he is bound to find his way forward to the lead. After starting 18th at Las Vegas earlier this year, Chastain went on to lead the most laps (83) with the second-fastest car in green-flag speed rankings.
Kevin Harvick, 23rd ($8,700 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
Sandbagging Harvick meanders his way back into this article with his 23rd starting position. His 30th ranked practice time might keep people off of him, especially with his place differential not near as juicy as last week. However, with Harvick, DFS players get access to a potential top-five finish, if not top-10 at the very least. In his last four visits to Kansas, Harvick has failed to finish outside of the top-5 and he’s coming off of three-straight top-10 finishes at Talladega, Dover, and Darlington. Furthermore, in Kansas’s closest 2022 corollaries so far, Harvick finished seventh at Auto Club Speedway and 12th at Las Vegas.
Todd Gilliland, 31st ($4,900 DraftKings)
Truth be told, due to the value listed below, DFS players may not even need to dip this low on DraftKings. However, for those trying to cram in as many place differential options as possible, as well as play priced up lap leading options like Kyle Larson or a driver with place differential upside, plus could be a lap leader like Chase Elliott or Denny Hamlin, then Gilliland enters the conversation as the preferred punt play. Unlike his fellow rookie Harrison Burton, he actually has place differential upside and comes at a $500 discount. Ranking 34 out of 36 drivers in Saturday’s abbreviated practice session is not encouraging, but racing conditions are projected to be a bit different on Sunday with clouds, and cooler temperatures which should lead to increased grip.
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Chris Buescher, 35th ($6,700 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr., 36th ($6,800 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)
After crashing in practice, Buescher finds himself starting next to last with no qualifying attempt. This starting position, at these salaries on DraftKings and FanDuel, makes Buescher a lock for cash and a hard-fade candidate in tournaments at a race track that shouldn’t see much of any attrition. In Buescher’s last six starts at Kansas, he has four top 15 finishes, and previously this season at Las Vegas, Buescher finished 18th.
Similarly, Stenhouse wrecked in practice and starts in dead last as points set the tiebreaker between himself, Chris Buescher, and Sunday’s highest owned driver Joey Logano. Playing Logano is a bit of a no-brainer, whatever the format, but Stenhouse will make people pause due to the season he’s had thus far. However, his fortunes have improved in back-to-back weeks at Dover and Darlington with finishes of second and eighth. While those two highly banked tracks don’t correlate that well to Kansas, it’s encouraging nonetheless to see the 47 team rattle off some consistency, especially in races that project to have more variance than this Sunday.
If picking between the two of Buescher and Stenhouse Jr., Buescher gets the nod as he projects to have the safer floor and even the higher floor. However, in cash game lineups, both of these drivers should be locked in.
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