Following Ryan Blaney‘s second Cup victory of 2021, NASCAR heads to Daytona for the final race in the 2021 regular season. Let’s put a bow on an exciting finish in Michigan, the playoff picture with Daytona remaining, and what to expect for Saturday evening’s Coke Zero Sugar 400. Below is a a comprehensive NASCAR DFS breakdown for DraftKings and FanDuel as well as some NASCAR DFS tips for making daily fantasy lineups this week.
NASCAR DFS Race Preview: Coke Zero Sugar 400
Ford Makes it Seven Straight
Ford, Penske and Ryan Blaney may have all left Michigan as the victors, yet the real story coming out of the Irish Hills was the Chevrolets of Hendrick Motorsports. The duo of Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott, Sunday’s starters on the front row, combined to lead 138 of 200 laps. Furthermore, late into the race (Lap 175), William Byron stormed to the lead following green-flag pits and could have won the race if not for the caution on Lap 188. On intermediate tracks this season, Hendrick has continued to show up with impressive results and shown that the 550-horsepower package has been one of their main focuses. That said, NASCAR will go an entire playoff sequence before racing in this package again at Las Vegas.
Speaking of that late caution, that late yellow flag set up the scenario that allowed Blaney to win. Before Lap 188, Blaney was stuck behind Byron and Larson with clean air, giving Byron a near-impenetrable wall. That is one of the many reasons why the low-horsepower package should go the way of the dinosaurs. It becomes a game of forcing the leader into making an error, something a driver can rarely do in the Cup Series. Regardless, the late restart set the stage for Blaney to take the lead, surprisingly from the bottom groove. Historically, the top groove has seen much higher retention rates, especially among those in the front row. However, Blaney made it work while Byron got a pitiful restart, and Blaney used clean air to his own advantage to secure his sixth career Cup victory.
In Ryan Blaney's six career Cup victories, here are his lap led totals:
Pocono-17: 10
Roval-18: 16
Dega-19: 35
Dega-20: 63
Atlanta-21: 25
Michigan-21: 8Small sample but it seems if Blaney is going to win, he's not going to blow you away. He'll be a factor & seal the deal late.
— Phill Bennetzen | RaceSheetsDFS Substack (@PMBennetzen) August 23, 2021
The Playoff Picture with One to Go
Perhaps the biggest story to emerge from Michigan was what happened following the end of the second stage. A very fast and competitive Austin Dillon was racing Brad Keselowski for stage points. After starting 26th and legitimately racing his way to the front, Dillon was challenging Larson for the lead — a lead he should have taken had Dillon exhibited a little intestinal fortitude.
Nonetheless, following a late pit cycle in that second segment, Dillon and Keselowski were racing for sixth before Dillon won the fight by mere inches. Inexplicably, Keselowski failed to lift, and Dillon got sent nose first into the front stretch wall at 170 mph. Dillon’s day ended in 36th place. What is maddening for Dillon, besides how his wreck should have been avoidable, was the fact that Tyler Reddick had late issues of his own and finished in 29th place. Dillon’s gap to Reddick, for the final playoff spot, could have easily been closed with just a top-10 finish. However, with only Daytona remaining that gap sits at 25 points.
Twenty-five points can easily be erased in one race, especially when one considers the nature of Daytona. However, Dillon is not guaranteed a better finish than Reddick simply because of his own track history. Wrecks can happen anywhere, at any time, at Daytona and the safest of drivers can have their day ended by no fault of their own.
Win and In
The fight for the final playoff spot may not be decided by just Dillon and Reddick, though. Via NASCAR’s rules for making the playoffs in the Cup Series, all a driver needs is a victory and to finish top-30 in regular-season points. These parameters open the door for 13 more drivers, all highlighted in yellow in this week’s Race Sheets. For Dillon and Reddick, this not only means being prescient of where their teammate is but also worrying about 13 other drivers should they ascend to the lead.
This, in turn, means that even Anthony Alfredo could stamp his playoff passport should he win on Saturday night. A victory by any of these 13 drivers will give them that 16th playoff spot and force both Dillon and Reddick to look to 2022. A scenario where Alfredo, Daniel Suarez, Erik Jones or Ryan Preece accomplishes this sounds unrealistic on the surface. However, the summer Daytona races have been a bit more chaotic than their February counterparts. In last year’s Coke Zero Sugar 400, only 25 cars finished the race, with just 20 on the lead lap. In the 2018 summer Daytona event, just 20 cars finished the race with only 17 on the lead lap.
Furthermore, the past three Coke Zero Sugar 400 winners (William Byron, Justin Haley, Erik Jones) all that saw victory came as their first and only win of that season. It is not that crazy to envision a longshot being Saturday night’s winner. This is the scenario NASCAR dreamed up when they combined these rules with Daytona being the final race in the regular season.
Racing Under the Lights in Daytona
Much ink has been spilled about Daytona, superspeedway racing and the implications for NASCAR DFS. For DFS players unfamiliar with the peculiarities of superspeedway events and how they impact DFS scoring, be sure to read that previous article. It lays bare everything one would need to know for Saturday evening. For those just wanting the highlights, check out this video below:
The main thing to keep in perspective is that this race can become chaotic at the flip of a switch. Due to this expected randomness, it is better to build lineups in light of factors with more assured scoring; namely, place differential and finishing position. These two scoring metrics are found in drivers starting in the back part of the field.
However, there is an issue with this approach: More than three-quarters of DFS players will be employing this strategy as well. What used to be an industry secret among the savvier of DFS players has become as accepted as milkshakes at a hamburger restaurant. If someone wants to avoid duplicated lineups, they have to swerve left when others are turning right. This includes utilizing drivers who are starting in the single digits or teens, playing potential dominators, and or maximizing ownership projections and subsequent pivots. Not doing what the crowd is doing will be paramount for finding any semblance of differentiation this Saturday.
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