The field is set for Saturday’s Trucks race at Texas with John Hunter Nemechek and Ben Rhodes on the front row. Let’s dive into this week’s top NASCAR DFS picks on DraftKings for the SpeedyCash.com 200 at Texas.
SpeedyCash.com 200 NASCAR DFS Picks for DraftKings
John Hunter Nemechek, 1st ($10,900)
At this price, one would assume that Kyle Busch was in this field. However, there are only two Cup drivers in this Texas field, Chase Elliott and Ross Chastain. Thus, either DraftKings is seriously overestimating the potential of those two, or DFS players are just getting a discount on Nemechek this week. Either way, getting the betting favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (+275) with the pole position is a winning proposition.
Nemechek is a three-time winner already in the 2021 Trucks season with two of those wins coming at similar intermediate ovals. His other win came at Richmond. In those three victories, Nemechek led totals of 94, 114 and 71 laps. Nemechek has yet to win from the pole this season, but the majority of those races involved his car-owner Kyle Busch racing too. Regardless, Nemechek is a winning threat with laps led upside starting on the pole.
Austin Wayne Self, 13th ($6,300)
To begin with, and more importantly get this out of the way, Self is overpriced this week. He should be about $500 cheaper hovering in the range that DraftKings has kept him in all year. However, this pricing issue creates a leverage point for DFS players to take advantage of other’s unwillingness to play Self.
First off, look in this price range and find someone else this cheap who finished in the top 15 in both Texas races last season. Those drivers don’t exist. Second off, in this same price range, find someone finishing with such consistency around and above the top 20. For the 2021 season, Self has failed to finish just five laps out of 1,278 and his worst finish is 23rd at Atlanta. The bulk of his finishes have ended in the top 20 with two top-10 finishes. DFS players are going to need salary relief somewhere in tournament lineups, Self is the best shot at saving money while also having access to a higher finish.
Sheldon Creed, 16th ($10,500)
For the season, Nemechek is running away with the lead for most laps led (409). Tailing behind Nemechek is his own part-time teammate Kyle Busch, who with just four races, has led 203 laps. Sneakily coming in third is Sheldon Creed with 158 laps led. Creed hasn’t been a top dominator anywhere, but he’s failed to lead laps in just two out of this year’s 10 races thus far. Two of his larger totals have come at Kansas and Charlotte, both races where he ran into trouble and finished poorly. Had issues not befallen Creed, like his wreck two weeks ago at Charlotte, then we may be looking at a three-time winner in 2021.
Despite his starting position, Creed still ranks third in DraftKings Sportsbook odds for this race at +700.
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Chase Elliott, 22nd ($11,800)
The case for Elliott is simple; place differential paired with winning potential. The 2020 NASCAR Cup Champion returns to the 24 of GMS this weekend, a Truck he finished first, 21st and fourth in last season for GMS. Talent-wise, Elliott is the king of this field. However, when it comes to machine, he’s a bishop staring up at a king (Nemechek). There’s no doubt that Elliott can drive his way to the front, but does he have the Truck to pull past Nemechek, Ben Rhodes, or Austin Hill?
Without practice data we’re going off what we know about the driver and what the No. 24 Truck has done this season. For the majority of the year, Raphael Lessard piloted this Truck with way too many subpar finishes before Lessard’s own funding ran out. The past three races have seen a combination of Ryan Reed and Jack Wood who haven’t done much better. The true potential of this Truck is a bit unknown. However, if anyone can pull a win plus dominator points out of this Truck, it would be Elliott who did the same thing at Charlotte in 2020.
Brennan Poole, 27th ($7,000)
Making his first start, in either Cup, Xfinity, or Trucks, is Brennan Poole in the No. 30 Truck for On Point Motorsports. Besides driving the 15 in the Cup Series last year, Poole made spot starts in the Trucks Series last season for On Point. In those 11 starts, he ran nearly all of the intermediate ovals with finishes of 15th, 38th, 17th, 19th, 17th, 31st, 12th and 12th. That is six top-20 finishes in eight starts for Steven Lane. If he can reproduce those results he’ll be valuable in cash. If the race gets as caution filled as past Spring Texas events, then Poole could easily sneak into the top 10.
Josh Berry, 33rd ($8,400)
In last week’s Xfinity write-up for the race at Mid-Ohio, Berry was written up as a possible fade considering the downgrade in the team and it being his first road race. Berry came through smelling like roses avoiding multiple wrecks and finishing in the top 10. If Berry could wheel that car around and survive the track, as well as other drivers, then there’s no reason to think he can’t do the same this weekend at Texas. Berry just might be able to drive and thrive in whatever he’s put in.
Truth be told, this Truck race has had a bad tendency to turn into a caution-filled wreck fest and those were night races. Now, in the mid-day of the Texas heat and humidity, the carnage could only get worse. Thus, siding with drivers with safer floors may be the best option in what could be a chaotic event.
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