Below you can see Stokastic’s NASCAR DFS Projections for DraftKings and FanDuel. If you’re interested in other premium content, head over to Stokastic’s NASCAR Ownership Projections, NASCAR DFS Projections, and Stokastic’s Top Driver Tool, which gives the probability that each driver will end up in a winning DFS lineup. For FREE DraftKings and FanDuel NASCAR DFS content, including FREE DFS Strategy shows, NASCAR DFS cheat sheets and picks, check out our NASCAR home page!
How to Use NASCAR DFS Projections
Update: Projections now give a breakdown for points scored by finishing position + place differential (Placement Points) and laps led + fastest laps (Dominator Points). For FanDuel a lot of points are given to drivers for completing laps, but that’s not useful for DFS because to win you need your drivers to finish the race. I suggest using my version of the projections without those points included for building your fantasy lineups. A full breakdown of scoring categories is listed in the “Detailed” tab.
NASCAR DFS Projections
DraftKings
Name | Projection | Starting Position | DK Salary | DK Value | Odds to Win | Placement Points | Dominator Points | PP/$1k | DP/$1k |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Projection | Starting Position | DK Salary | DK Value | Odds to Win | Placement Points | Dominator Points | PP/$1k | DP/$1k |
Kyle Busch | 49.48 | 1 | 9,000 | 5.50 | 22.41 | 22.29 | 28.89 | 2.48 | 3.21 |
Ryan Blaney | 49.07 | 2 | 9,600 | 5.11 | 14.36 | 25.54 | 25.10 | 2.66 | 2.61 |
William Byron | 57.81 | 3 | 11,000 | 5.26 | 8.41 | 29.22 | 30.48 | 2.66 | 2.77 |
Tyler Reddick | 41.24 | 4 | 8,200 | 5.03 | 19.12 | 25.01 | 17.39 | 3.05 | 2.12 |
Noah Gragson | 22.13 | 5 | 6,900 | 3.21 | 89.57 | 16.05 | 6.56 | 2.33 | 0.95 |
Denny Hamlin | 56.69 | 6 | 10,800 | 5.25 | 7.70 | 32.30 | 26.03 | 2.99 | 2.41 |
Chase Briscoe | 21.38 | 7 | 7,100 | 3.01 | 100.21 | 16.61 | 5.16 | 2.34 | 0.73 |
Michael McDowell | 7.48 | 8 | 6,600 | 1.13 | 466.85 | 6.23 | 1.36 | 0.94 | 0.21 |
Alex Bowman | 33.03 | 9 | 9,300 | 3.55 | 27.50 | 25.06 | 8.58 | 2.69 | 0.92 |
AJ Allmendinger | 1.96 | 10 | 5,900 | 0.33 | 610.40 | 1.61 | 0.38 | 0.27 | 0.06 |
Austin Cindric | 18.71 | 11 | 5,700 | 3.28 | 144.64 | 16.07 | 2.87 | 2.82 | 0.50 |
Josh Berry | 28.40 | 12 | 7,300 | 3.89 | 59.00 | 23.12 | 5.71 | 3.17 | 0.78 |
Joey Logano | 31.60 | 13 | 8,800 | 3.59 | 45.55 | 25.69 | 6.38 | 2.92 | 0.73 |
Daniel Hemric | -4.86 | 14 | 5,200 | -0.93 | 3,247.48 | -4.88 | 0.02 | -0.94 | 0.00 |
Martin Truex Jr | 55.42 | 15 | 11,300 | 4.90 | 9.12 | 38.50 | 18.10 | 3.41 | 1.60 |
Bubba Wallace | 26.74 | 16 | 7,500 | 3.57 | 100.21 | 23.33 | 3.70 | 3.11 | 0.49 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 15.04 | 17 | 6,500 | 2.31 | 203.66 | 14.15 | 0.97 | 2.18 | 0.15 |
Chris Buescher | 35.29 | 18 | 8,000 | 4.41 | 49.33 | 29.85 | 5.88 | 3.73 | 0.73 |
Ty Gibbs | 47.89 | 19 | 8,500 | 5.63 | 19.12 | 37.22 | 11.46 | 4.38 | 1.35 |
Carson Hocevar | 27.77 | 20 | 6,000 | 4.63 | 144.64 | 25.21 | 2.79 | 4.20 | 0.47 |
Kyle Larson | 71.79 | 21 | 11,500 | 6.24 | 5.37 | 47.87 | 25.49 | 4.16 | 2.22 |
Ross Chastain | 54.73 | 22 | 10,200 | 5.37 | 14.36 | 42.37 | 13.26 | 4.15 | 1.30 |
Austin Dillon | 20.35 | 23 | 6,800 | 2.99 | 537.79 | 19.52 | 0.91 | 2.87 | 0.13 |
Brad Keselowski | 36.78 | 24 | 7,700 | 4.78 | 79.14 | 32.90 | 4.21 | 4.27 | 0.55 |
Corey LaJoie | 10.08 | 25 | 5,600 | 1.80 | 2,294.38 | 10.01 | 0.08 | 1.79 | 0.01 |
Harrison Burton | 6.89 | 26 | 5,100 | 1.35 | 3,247.48 | 6.89 | 0.01 | 1.35 | 0.00 |
Jimmie Johnson | 24.38 | 27 | 6,200 | 3.93 | 397.73 | 23.56 | 0.89 | 3.80 | 0.14 |
Ryan Preece | 25.16 | 28 | 6,400 | 3.93 | 537.79 | 24.40 | 0.83 | 3.81 | 0.13 |
Chase Elliott | 58.80 | 29 | 9,900 | 5.94 | 17.51 | 47.96 | 11.65 | 4.84 | 1.18 |
Todd Gilliland | 22.32 | 30 | 5,500 | 4.06 | 1,074.83 | 21.82 | 0.55 | 3.97 | 0.10 |
Daniel Suarez | 28.33 | 31 | 6,700 | 4.23 | 397.73 | 27.56 | 0.85 | 4.11 | 0.13 |
Corey Heim | 23.79 | 32 | 5,800 | 4.10 | 915.11 | 23.46 | 0.37 | 4.04 | 0.06 |
Christopher Bell | 52.48 | 33 | 10,500 | 5.00 | 39.98 | 46.33 | 6.65 | 4.41 | 0.63 |
John H. Nemechek | 25.96 | 34 | 6,100 | 4.26 | 915.11 | 25.62 | 0.37 | 4.20 | 0.06 |
Kaz Grala | 12.47 | 35 | 5,000 | 2.49 | 9,829.10 | 12.47 | 0.00 | 2.49 | 0.00 |
Justin Haley | 13.26 | 36 | 5,400 | 2.46 | 9,829.10 | 13.26 | 0.00 | 2.46 | 0.00 |
Zane Smith | 21.89 | 37 | 5,300 | 4.13 | 2,294.38 | 21.82 | 0.07 | 4.12 | 0.01 |
FanDuel
Name | Projection | Projection-Laps | Starting Position | FD Salary | FD Value | NoLapsValue | Odds to Win | Placement Points | Dominator Points |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Projection | Projection-Laps | Starting Position | FD Salary | FD Value | NoLapsValue | Odds to Win | Placement Points | Dominator Points |
Kyle Busch | 67.65 | 29.82 | 1 | 9,500 | 7.12 | 3.14 | 22.41 | 25.05 | 4.76 |
Ryan Blaney | 68.92 | 30.99 | 2 | 10,500 | 6.56 | 2.95 | 14.36 | 27.22 | 3.76 |
William Byron | 72.48 | 34.39 | 3 | 12,500 | 5.80 | 2.75 | 8.41 | 29.77 | 4.62 |
Tyler Reddick | 66.47 | 28.68 | 4 | 9,000 | 7.39 | 3.19 | 19.12 | 26.36 | 2.32 |
Noah Gragson | 57.55 | 20.32 | 5 | 7,000 | 8.22 | 2.90 | 89.57 | 19.61 | 0.70 |
Denny Hamlin | 73.39 | 35.20 | 6 | 13,000 | 5.65 | 2.71 | 7.70 | 31.34 | 3.87 |
Chase Briscoe | 57.33 | 20.10 | 7 | 6,500 | 8.82 | 3.09 | 100.21 | 19.58 | 0.52 |
Michael McDowell | 48.75 | 12.03 | 8 | 6,800 | 7.17 | 1.77 | 466.85 | 11.93 | 0.10 |
Alex Bowman | 63.89 | 26.23 | 9 | 8,200 | 7.79 | 3.20 | 27.50 | 25.27 | 0.96 |
AJ Allmendinger | 44.74 | 8.20 | 10 | 4,000 | 11.18 | 2.05 | 610.40 | 8.19 | 0.02 |
Austin Cindric | 55.58 | 18.56 | 11 | 4,500 | 12.35 | 4.13 | 144.64 | 18.33 | 0.23 |
Josh Berry | 61.24 | 23.76 | 12 | 7,200 | 8.50 | 3.30 | 59.00 | 23.19 | 0.57 |
Joey Logano | 62.97 | 25.49 | 13 | 7,800 | 8.07 | 3.27 | 45.55 | 24.82 | 0.66 |
Daniel Hemric | 38.76 | 2.68 | 14 | 2,000 | 19.38 | 1.34 | 3,247.48 | 2.68 | 0.00 |
Martin Truex Jr | 74.40 | 36.30 | 15 | 13,500 | 5.51 | 2.69 | 9.12 | 33.77 | 2.53 |
Bubba Wallace | 59.97 | 22.77 | 16 | 7,500 | 8.00 | 3.04 | 100.21 | 22.45 | 0.32 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 52.74 | 15.72 | 17 | 6,000 | 8.79 | 2.62 | 203.66 | 15.66 | 0.06 |
Chris Buescher | 64.72 | 27.29 | 18 | 8,000 | 8.09 | 3.41 | 49.33 | 26.71 | 0.58 |
Ty Gibbs | 71.06 | 33.28 | 19 | 10,000 | 7.11 | 3.33 | 19.12 | 31.86 | 1.41 |
Carson Hocevar | 60.28 | 23.14 | 20 | 5,200 | 11.59 | 4.45 | 144.64 | 22.92 | 0.22 |
Kyle Larson | 81.50 | 43.24 | 21 | 14,000 | 5.82 | 3.09 | 5.37 | 39.33 | 3.91 |
Ross Chastain | 74.53 | 36.63 | 22 | 12,000 | 6.21 | 3.05 | 14.36 | 34.93 | 1.69 |
Austin Dillon | 54.88 | 18.25 | 23 | 4,200 | 13.07 | 4.35 | 537.79 | 18.20 | 0.05 |
Brad Keselowski | 65.24 | 27.95 | 24 | 8,500 | 7.68 | 3.29 | 79.14 | 27.58 | 0.37 |
Corey LaJoie | 47.19 | 10.94 | 25 | 3,800 | 12.42 | 2.88 | 2,294.38 | 10.94 | 0.00 |
Harrison Burton | 44.53 | 8.51 | 26 | 2,500 | 17.81 | 3.40 | 3,247.48 | 8.51 | 0.00 |
Jimmie Johnson | 56.99 | 20.28 | 27 | 4,800 | 11.87 | 4.23 | 397.73 | 20.24 | 0.04 |
Ryan Preece | 57.34 | 20.66 | 28 | 5,800 | 9.89 | 3.56 | 537.79 | 20.62 | 0.04 |
Chase Elliott | 76.66 | 38.81 | 29 | 11,000 | 6.97 | 3.53 | 17.51 | 37.39 | 1.42 |
Todd Gilliland | 54.85 | 18.36 | 30 | 3,500 | 15.67 | 5.25 | 1,074.83 | 18.33 | 0.03 |
Daniel Suarez | 58.98 | 22.27 | 31 | 6,200 | 9.51 | 3.59 | 397.73 | 22.23 | 0.04 |
Corey Heim | 55.58 | 19.09 | 32 | 5,000 | 11.12 | 3.82 | 915.11 | 19.07 | 0.01 |
Christopher Bell | 73.49 | 35.96 | 33 | 11,500 | 6.39 | 3.13 | 39.98 | 35.28 | 0.68 |
John H. Nemechek | 56.70 | 20.21 | 34 | 5,500 | 10.31 | 3.67 | 915.11 | 20.19 | 0.01 |
Kaz Grala | 46.31 | 10.64 | 35 | 2,000 | 23.15 | 5.32 | 9,829.10 | 10.64 | 0.00 |
Justin Haley | 46.71 | 10.99 | 36 | 3,000 | 15.57 | 3.66 | 9,829.10 | 10.99 | 0.00 |
Zane Smith | 52.99 | 16.80 | 37 | 2,500 | 21.20 | 6.72 | 2,294.38 | 16.80 | 0.00 |
Detailed
Name | Avg finish | DKFinishPoints | FDFinishPoints | Place Differential | Fastest Laps | Laps Led |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Avg finish | DKFinishPoints | FDFinishPoints | Place Differential | Fastest Laps | Laps Led |
Kyle Busch | 11.1 | 32.4 | 30.1 | -10.1 | 34.0 | 47.6 |
Ryan Blaney | 10.0 | 33.6 | 31.2 | -8.0 | 31.4 | 37.6 |
William Byron | 8.8 | 35.0 | 32.7 | -5.8 | 37.9 | 46.2 |
Tyler Reddick | 11.2 | 32.2 | 30.0 | -7.2 | 23.2 | 23.2 |
Noah Gragson | 16.0 | 27.0 | 25.1 | -11.0 | 9.6 | 7.0 |
Denny Hamlin | 8.8 | 35.1 | 32.7 | -2.8 | 32.7 | 38.7 |
Chase Briscoe | 16.6 | 26.3 | 24.4 | -9.6 | 7.7 | 5.2 |
Michael McDowell | 22.1 | 20.3 | 19.0 | -14.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
Alex Bowman | 13.6 | 29.6 | 27.6 | -4.6 | 12.3 | 9.6 |
AJ Allmendinger | 25.2 | 16.8 | 15.8 | -15.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
Austin Cindric | 18.8 | 23.9 | 22.2 | -7.8 | 4.6 | 2.3 |
Josh Berry | 15.9 | 27.0 | 25.2 | -3.9 | 8.5 | 5.7 |
Joey Logano | 15.2 | 27.9 | 25.9 | -2.2 | 9.5 | 6.6 |
Daniel Hemric | 30.2 | 11.3 | 10.8 | -16.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Martin Truex Jr | 10.1 | 33.6 | 31.3 | 4.9 | 23.5 | 25.3 |
Bubba Wallace | 17.7 | 25.1 | 23.3 | -1.7 | 5.8 | 3.2 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 22.6 | 19.7 | 18.4 | -5.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
Chris Buescher | 15.6 | 27.4 | 25.5 | 2.4 | 8.9 | 5.8 |
Ty Gibbs | 12.6 | 30.8 | 28.6 | 6.4 | 15.8 | 14.1 |
Carson Hocevar | 18.7 | 23.9 | 22.3 | 1.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
Kyle Larson | 8.5 | 35.4 | 33.1 | 12.5 | 31.4 | 39.1 |
Ross Chastain | 11.5 | 31.9 | 29.7 | 10.5 | 18.1 | 16.9 |
Austin Dillon | 22.9 | 19.4 | 18.1 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
Brad Keselowski | 17.0 | 25.9 | 24.1 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 3.7 |
Corey LaJoie | 28.4 | 13.4 | 12.6 | -3.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Harrison Burton | 30.3 | 11.2 | 10.7 | -4.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Jimmie Johnson | 22.8 | 19.4 | 18.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
Ryan Preece | 22.9 | 19.3 | 18.1 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
Chase Elliott | 12.2 | 31.2 | 29.0 | 16.8 | 16.2 | 14.2 |
Todd Gilliland | 25.1 | 16.9 | 15.9 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
Daniel Suarez | 22.9 | 19.4 | 18.2 | 8.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
Corey Heim | 25.3 | 16.7 | 15.7 | 6.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
Christopher Bell | 14.9 | 28.2 | 26.2 | 18.1 | 9.9 | 6.8 |
John H. Nemechek | 25.2 | 16.8 | 15.8 | 8.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
Kaz Grala | 31.9 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Justin Haley | 32.0 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Zane Smith | 28.5 | 13.3 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |