The field is set for Sunday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. With Aric Almirola and Ryan Blaney on the front row, let’s dissect this 327 lap event and discuss my top NASCAR DFS plays on SuperDraft.
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Thinking Outside of the SuperDraft Box
The multiplier algorithm at SuperDraft has gotten sharper over the past few weeks. Now only two drivers carry the lowest champion multiplier (1.5); Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski. The tier of drivers we would consider “lap leaders” all saw boosts to their multipliers up to the 1.2X level. While this seems insignificant, it does help their chances of finally outscoring the place differential drivers; namely Christopher Bell.
327 laps present 65.4 laps led points on the board, the most we’ve seen since Martinsville. In order for these points to truly be a factor in changing our typical Champion selections, we have certain thresholds (laps led wise) that each of these potential lap leaders needs to hit. These numbers are based on my model’s projection of where they start versus where they finish.
- Aric Almirola 1st (1.8x Champion multiplier) – 140 laps led
- Ryan Blaney 2nd (1.8x Champion multiplier) – 100 laps led
- Kevin Harvick 5th (1.5x Champion multiplier) – 150 laps led
- Brad Keselowski 6th (1.5x Champion multiplier) – 235 laps led
- Denny Hamlin 7th (1.5x Champion multiplier) – 175 laps led
- Martin Truex Junior 10th (1.8x Champion multiplier) – 80 laps led
I always talk about approaching NASCAR DFS as if its a sliding scale. If you’re looking for differentiation on SuperDraft this Sunday, you can conceivably approach these potential lap leaders as champion options. However, keep these rules in mind.
- The closer to the front they start the more laps led you’ll need.
- The lower the multiplier, the more laps they will need to lead.
Top Champion Selections
Christopher Bell 33rd (2.05x Champion multiplier) – Part of that algorithm adjustment I mentioned earlier is Bell seeing his multiplier shaved off week after week. To be honest, we can’t fault SuperDraft for his chalkiness the past month. On Tuesdays, they release contests with driver salaries. How were they to know NASCAR would continually find a way to put Bell in the mid-30s by random draw?
Regardless, Bell finds himself once again with the highest place differential upside in the field. However, with his Champion multiplier knocked down to just 2.05x, he’s not a slam dunk. I have softly projected Bell for a finish around 18th Sunday. In the past few weeks that would have been enough to score 165+ SuperDraft points. Now, that same finish only nets 141.34 SD points as a Champion. In fact, Bell needs to win in order to surpass my top projected champion scorer on Sunday.
Tyler Reddick 24th (2.2x Champion multiplier) – Reddick somehow drew the worst starting spot he could get starting 24th. While we know Reddick will be chalky, I don’t think we will see his ownership surpass that of Christopher Bell’s. Although Reddick has 9 fewer spots to gain than Bell, he does carry a higher multiplier. This lower multiplier means he needs to earn fewer overall positions in order to be the highest scorer.
Currently, I have Reddick finishing 10th – on par with what he’s done in the 550 horsepower package in 2020. With that finish, he’ll earn 167.64 SuperDraft points as a champion pick. Reddick is by far my highest projected driver in Sunday’s race.
Top Flex Selections
Ty Dillon 30th (1.6x Flex multiplier) – the younger Dillon brother has become our weekly floor play. He usually carries one of the higher multipliers, for a driver in mid-tier equipment, and we can typically count on Dillon to at least pick up some place differential. After back to back top-16 finishes, Dillon finds himself starting 30th at a track he’s finished 19th at, on average, over the past 6 Texas races.
Daniel Suarez 37th (1.6x Flex multiplier) – sometimes you have to do the math to really see these things flesh out. If Joey Logano finishes 5th after starting 9th and leads no laps in the process he will score 89.64 SuperDraft points as a Flex play. However, if Suarez merely picks up 12 spots finishing 25th he will outscore Logano (90.72). I think we can safely assume that Suarez picks up his typical 10 spots. However, if this hot track turns into an attrition race, we could see Suarez finish near 20th (like Indianapolis). Don’t underestimate Suarez’s value on SuperDraft with his high multiplier and starting position.