Following mayhem in the Midwest, NASCAR heads south to the Bluegrass State. NASCAR and the DFS world will have its eyes fixed on Kentucky Sunday for 400 miles in the Quaker State 400.
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Indianapolis as the NASCAR DFS Anomaly
Whatever suppositions you had going into last Sunday, or conclusions you drew afterward, just leave those in Indianapolis. In true irony, I forecasted a race that would look like last year’s snoozefest. In the end, we had a race closer to the 2017 Indianapolis wreck-fest. However, the flood of yellow flags wasn’t due to the drivers but a bad tire more than likely and its psi recommendation.
Allegedly, this was the same tire Goodyear gave teams the weekend prior at Pocono. While cut-down right-fronts weren’t an issue in the Cup race, they were more than issues in the Truck and Xfinity races. Was the Cup Series just lucky at Pocono with two races? Perhaps, because if it was luck, then it ran out as numerous drivers cut down those right-fronts and went sailing into the walls. Besides the tire issues, there was the flukiest pileup on pit road I can remember that took out or impaired several good cars and drivers.
Needless to say, Indianapolis was a bit of an anomaly. By the end of the 400 miles, a top-10 driver had more than likely earned that spot via attrition and pit-strategy (Cole Custer). Several of the punt plays came through because of that attrition factor (Daniel Suarez, Ross Chastain). Our optimal lineup got shook up several times in the final 10 laps.
This is all to say leave Indianapolis in Indianapolis. That track and its ilk we will not see in this crazy 2020 season. Thank God for that.
A New Spin on Kentucky
Gauging expectations for Kentucky this year is a bit of a dice throw. Generally, the annual Kentucky race is held on a Saturday night. However, thanks to the COVID-19 shakeup, NASCAR had to move the Cup race to Sunday afternoon. As you probably know, not only did the Xfinity Series race on Thursday night but they also raced Friday night. The truck race, in turn, became a Saturday event. Thus, as NASCAR is attempting to keep as little personnel at the tracks as possible, the Cup race was moved to Sunday.
One good thing about this is the earlier start time on Sunday, 2:30 p.m. EST. Save for another rain delay, the finish of this 267-lap event shouldn’t coincide with the sun going down. However, it does present an issue for our NASCAR DFS research purposes. We’re left evaluating stats for a night race in lieu of an afternoon race. We know that at night, as temperatures decrease, grip increases necessarily. So we’re left trying to decide just how much will this racing surface change and what impact that will have on racing Sunday.
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What to Expect When You’re Expecting
Kentucky has typically been very favorable to the polesitter, if not the entire front row. Looking back at the top-two lap leaders in each Kentucky race since 2013, the polesitter has led the most or second-most laps in five of seven races. The driver starting second has achieved that same previous achievement in four of seven races.
In every one of those Kentucky races, at least one of the drivers on the front row led the most or second-most laps. It’s just been way too easy for one or both of them to check out, become impossible to pass and sit on the lead. And sit is exactly what these drivers do. Last year’s Kentucky race was the first time the driver who led the most laps didn’t lead at least 128 or more. Before 2019, the driver who led the most laps on average led 166.
So what does that mean in the year of murder hornets? Without the benefit of practice, unless you set your car up correctly at the shop, starting out front could mean little to nothing. Yes, clean air is king. Yet teams generally have the benefit of practice to help set up their cars. Now, and for the foreseeable future, it comes down to what crew chiefs did back at the shop.
With certain drivers, we can give them the benefit of the doubt because we’ve seen them consistently unload with speed. On the other hand, other drivers are struggling. Clean air can cover a multitude of errors and make a car look deceptively fast, as we saw at Pocono and Indianapolis. However, at Kentucky, that aero advantage shouldn’t be nearly as strong. It’s sad to say, but unless a crew chief makes the most of past race notes, that driver will ultimately see either Kevin Harvick or Denny Hamlin sail on past them.
NASCAR Lineup Construction
Once again, we have to take the above information with a grain of salt. We see such large amounts of laps led because of the nature of a night race. Therefore, we probably will see the figure in blue come down, though probably not to the extent of last year. I believe that was due to the way the starting grid shook out with Daniel Suarez on the pole.
However, if we look at our most recent race at a fellow intermediate track, it mirrors what happened above. At Homestead Hamlin led 137 laps while Ryan Blaney led 70. It should be noted that although Hamlin sat on the pole, it wasn’t until 76 that he actually led more than a single lap at a time. On the other hand, this race was rain-delayed and became a night race. So the sun went away and the grip increased as the sunlight faded. It is a minute detail but definitely worth noting when looking back at Miami.
Regardless, the constant in this equation is the laps. With only 267 laps, there are only so many fastest and laps led points to go around. Furthermore, if you look at DraftKings, pricing has returned to pre-coronavirus levels. Therefore, you can’t jam in three lap leaders like the previous weeks just because the salaries work. Returning to a dual-dominator build for DraftKing makes the most sense now. On FanDuel, you have a real debate about one versus two lap leaders. In the end, it comes down to race script. There are enough laps led points available (26.7) to make a dual-lap-leader build work. It’s just a matter of how you see the racing playing out in regards to who leads how many laps.
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