The field is set for Saturday evening’s Xfinity race at Las Vegas with Austin Cindric and A.J. Allmendinger on the front row. We will be going over some general strategy and finding some of the best NASCAR DFS value plays. Let’s delve into the top NASCAR DFS picks on DraftKings for the Alsco Uniforms 302.
Alsco Uniforms 302 NASCAR DFS Picks for DraftKings
Austin Cindric, 1st ($10,200 DraftKings)
Before this gets dismissed as clickbait, hear this thought experiment out. According to initial ownership projections, Cindric is projected to come in at just over 70% in tournaments this weekend. It is to be expected, as last year’s Xfinity Champion and a five-time winner in 2021 is starting on the pole, what is there not to like?
First, it begins with that ownership projection. There is currently a 13-point gap between Cindric and the next highest owned driver. At such high ownership, taking the stand that Cindric fails to meet expectations will put DFS players way above the field should Cindric just turn in a typical day for him at an intermediate track. Therein lies the next issue, Cindric has no wins and has only led 22 combined laps in the previous four intermediate track races. Cindric started the season off well at Homestead leading 63 laps before finishing fifth and 43 laps in the spring Vegas race before finishing fourth. Since then, the dominator points have not been there. However, since then the field has caught up to and surpassed Cindric.
Daniel Hemric, 7th ($9,600 DraftKings)
Hemric currently leads everyone in the Xfinity Series in laps led this season at intermediate tracks. His 237 combined laps led is 46 more than Kyle Busch, granted Busch accomplished his results in just two races. What does remain though is he has nearly twice as many laps led as Austin Cindric (128) and more than double that of A.J. Allmendinger (101). While Hemric remains winless for his season and career, a driver can still fail to win and remain valuable for DFS. In the spring-2021 race here, Hemric led 74 laps before finishing second and led 105 laps at Charlotte, one of the better corollaries for this event, before crashing and finishing 30th.
If Hemric can ascend to the lead, as he has done in four of the six intermediate track races, then he can pile on the dominator points at less than half the projected ownership of polesitter Austin Cindric. As an underpriced secondary, or even primary, dominator — that is a bet worth making.
Ryan Sieg, 20th ($7,700 DraftKings)
Traditionally, Sieg has run fairly well at Las Vegas with results of 12th, sixth, 14th, third and fifth before coming in 38th in the spring due to a wreck on lap 73. In fact, in this season’s four intermediate races, Sieg has four top-12 finishes with his two bad results coming from crashes, Las Vegas and Charlotte. Whether looking at track history or seasonal form, Sieg has demonstrated the ability to race his way upfront.
The fantastic thing about this is Sieg could go overlooked in this price range because the three drivers priced underneath Sieg all start in the 30s. As DFS players naturally gravitate towards place differential, Sieg will garner attention but then quickly lose it as J.J. Yeley, B.J. McLeod and Landon Cassill all have seemingly more upside. In reality, that trio can all outscore Sieg with that place differential. However, Sieg holds the higher ceiling projection because he is the most likely to actually race his way into the top 10.
Joe Graf Jr., 21st ($4,600 DraftKings)
It feels nearly impossible to find any respectable sense of value this week for the Xfinity slate. Hopefully, with as flat as salaries are up top this week, DFS players can find themselves avoiding the punt range altogether. However, for those who are dabbling in this range, Graf at least offers the possibility of a driver who could find near where he starts. In three career starts at Las Vegas, Graf has two top-20 finishes including 18th in the spring race here earlier this year. In his four other starts at intermediate tracks this year, Graf has finished each race.
For those that play Graf, it is just the hope of an uneventful day that results in no place differential lost. That day would give them the best fantasy projection of everyone else priced in this range.
Ty Dillon, 28th ($8,600 DraftKings)
Ranking No. 1 in both top-six percentage and top-four points/place differential, according to the Top Driver Tool, Dillon is the preferred place differential play on Saturday’s slate. After five successful starts for Chris Our, with finishes of 15th or better in all five races, Dillon slides over into the No. 31 for Jordan Anderson. With Tyler Reddick or Josh Berry behind the wheel of this vehicle, it has been competitive fighting for top-10 finishes. While Dillon’s talent ranks below that of Reddick, and probably even Josh Berry at this point, Dillon should still be able to take a good mid-tier car and finish well with it.
For the sake of reference, at +6600, Dillon has higher outright odds at BetMGM than Myatt Snider (+8000). Another top-15 finish for Dillon should be within his realm of reasonable expectations for Saturday.
B.J. McLeod, 39th ($7,500 DraftKings)
McLeod has quickly become a weekly staple of this article. In three straight weeks, Las Vegas included, he has filled a seat for a different team owner. His starting positions are being reflective of the car and where it finished the week prior and not his own results. DFS players are gifted once more with the place differential option that is McLeod who starts one spot short of dead last this weekend.
This week, McLeod will be racing for himself in the No. 99, a seat he last filled at Dover when he started 24th and finished 21st. Whatever fears there may be about McLeod starting and parking can be disregarded, when McLeod drives for himself he competes. In fact, the last time McLeod had anything mechanical retire him from a race in a car that he owns was Charlotte in 2018 and before that Texas in the same year. For those curious, since 2018, McLeod has driven one of his own cars on 16 separate occasions. He has only failed to finish two of those events — both mentioned above. As team owner and driver, expect the No. 99 to get a little extra attention this week, and do not be shocked if McLeod pushes for a top-20 result.
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