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NBA Boom/Bust ProbabilityPremium content




In all DFS sports, being able to compare the strength of a player each day versus their popularity is key to success. In NBA, correlations between players are less valuable so the strength of each play can be considered individually. For each player, I calculate the standard deviation based on a variety of factors and use that to calculate the ceiling (75th-percentile performance) the floor (25th-percentile performance) and the probability that they will bust (not meeting value) or boom (value plus 10 points). Combining these metrics, you will be able to gain an edge on everyone by identifying underowned or overowned players.

For the purposes of this tool, I define value to be reaching 5x pts/$1,000 on DraftKings and 5x pts/$1,000 on FanDuel.

Last Update: 4 months ago



A self-proclaimed U.S. history buff, stats enthusiast, and rabid fan of anything Detroit (yes, even the Lions), Awesemo started playing daily fantasy sports in 2013 and never looked back. After graduating with a degree in mathematics from Washington University in St. Louis in 2008, he began developing advanced statistical models and applied his unique skill-set first to poker, then as a full-time DFS player. He has since dominated DFS, becoming a fixture on leaderboards and cementing his position as the top-ranked overall player according to RotoGrinders. Competing in most guaranteed prize pool tournaments, he has ranked in the top 3 across major sports, including NBA, NFL, NHL, PGA, and MLB. He enjoys sharing his knowledge of fantasy sports with new and experienced players alike. Career Highlights: #1 Overall Ranking; 14x FanDuel $100k winner, 11x DraftKings Hundred-Thousandaire; 20x Live Final qualifier. You can contact him on Twitter @awesemodfs or by emailing

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    November 5, 2019 at 6:51 pm

    How would you factor the Boom/Bust projections into late night (2-3 game) slates. And, Showdown (single game) slates? Thanks in advance.~Autocrush

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      January 28, 2020 at 4:16 am

      Lmao hartenstein and Clemons both had a 6 percent chance of busting. They both played 6 min lol

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    December 28, 2019 at 12:39 pm

    Can you fix this to include the players position?

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    December 28, 2019 at 6:32 pm

    12/28/2019: Team and Position are both blank as of 7:30 PM

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    January 9, 2020 at 10:14 am

    I haven’t won a dime since I started using awesemo. Not worth 50 a week

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      January 10, 2020 at 11:43 am

      Perhaps try concentrating on just one line up and put in into a few Head-to-Heads and low $ single entries. Honestly, and he gets hardly any credit, EMac is quite insightful and does extremely well at the low levels (.10 & .25). Follow him and read his articles. And tweet him for advice too. I’m sure he’d help. Good luck.

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        January 25, 2020 at 7:16 am

        Had a few good weeks when I first joined but just been losing tons of money since. The boom bust tool has been way off lately

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      January 17, 2020 at 4:56 pm

      Don’t get discouraged … even the best players have down periods where things just don’t end up working out. But also, we all have access to the same information and people end up with vastly different ownership percentages… don’t forget about lineup study. See what people who are making money are focusing on that you may not be. Good luck..

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    February 22, 2020 at 4:02 pm

    these boom bust numbers must be an erroe 100% boom for 15 players lol yea i wish

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