NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

There is a big half-week of NBA daily fantasy basketball action before we hit the All-Star break kicks off with a fun seven-game slate on Monday night. Every game on the board has under a 7.5-point spread, and only one game is totaled below the 220.0 mark. We should have a wide range of NBA DFS picks available tonight in all salary and productivity ranges. With seven games, we’ll be looking at a few of the top plays on the board for optimal-lineup rates and a few of the pivots at better leverage scores that will help us improve other positions with salary savings. We are always looking for players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in optimized lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimals + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Damian Lillard — Portland Trail Blazers

DraftKings — $10,400 — PG | FanDuel — $10,100 — PG

Lillard has officially hit the stride that we initially expected from him when C.J. McCollum was shelved with an injury several weeks ago. Lillard has been rock solid throughout, but his numbers did not initially make a major leap. Over the team’s last seven games, Lillard has consumed 36.0% of the usage while putting up 32.4 real-life points in 36.6 minutes per game. He adds a 12.9% rebounding share and a staggering 63.3% assist percentage to the mix, fully justifying his increased salary on both daily fantasy basketball sites. Lillard is atop the optimal lineup board once again despite his price on both sites.

On FanDuel Lillard comes up in the optimal lineup in 39.2% of simulated contests, leading the entire slate. He has a massive median projection compared to what else is on the board tonight and has a 50.3% boom-score probability, meaning there is excessive potential for a ceiling game. The public is not on Lillard quite as much as the numbers suggest they should be. He has a 2.5 leverage score in the mid-afternoon update, although that could easily close toward lock. Regardless, it would be advisable to exceed the field’s heavy ownership on the best available play of the night.

On DraftKings Lillard measures up almost as well. He remains the slate leader by optimal-lineup rate, landing there in 25.9% of DraftKings simulations. The competition is closer, however, given the much higher price relatively to the available salary cap. Still, Lillard stands out for his nearly 60-point median projection and a 40.6% boom-score probability that also leads the slate. He will be owned to an appropriate degree by the field but seems like a good spot to push well beyond their 28.4% mark. Getting to double the Lillard ownership would not be a bad decision.

Miles Bridges — Charlotte Hornets

DraftKings — $4,800 — SF/PF | FanDuel — $5,000 — PF

This is one for the DraftKings folk; Bridges is a very different play from one site to the other today. The Hornets roll into Portland for the late game in one of the three games totaled over 230.0. With Devonte’ Graham and Cody Zeller certainly sidelined and Gordon Hayward doubtful to play, Bridges should be in line for another night of increased run. In the same situation last night, Bridges’ minutes increased from his season-long average of 26.7 to 32.6, coming off the bench in the second unit but closing out the game in the fourth quarter with the starters in a close contest. Bridges saw just 9.3% usage but had a 36% rebounding share and a 16.7% assist rate, putting up 13 real-life points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists, a clean stat line that he could easily repeat at a low salary tonight.

Bridges is very much in play on the DraftKings slate. He slots in at two positions and is at a highly useful salary that creates room for upside. Bridges has just a 16.2% boom-score probability, but he does not need to dramatically exceed his median projection to get where we need him. He appears in the optimal lineup in 20.5% of simulations while carrying a 4.7 leverage score, meaning the public is not taking advantage of his utility nearly enough. Getting Bridges into lineups as a moveable piece with strong value and leverage seems like a winning step down the optimal construction path for this slate.

On FanDuel Bridges is in play mostly as a mix-and-match at low ownership. He slots into the power forward position at an increased salary that simply makes him less appealing. He lands in the optimal lineup in just 13.1% of simulations, pushing him well down the board at the position on the blue site. His boom-score probability of 18.9% is fine but not worth chasing to great extent. Exceeding the public’s 9.3% ownership would not necessarily be a night-killing mistake, but it is not likely to be the optimal decision at the position.

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LaMarcus Aldridge — San Antonio Spurs

DraftKings — $6,200 — PF/C / FanDuel — $5,600 — PF

There is little denying that Aldridge is not the player he once was. Even from last year to this year, Aldridge’s game has seemingly slipped significantly. The fantasy points per minute are quite telling; Aldridge produced a 1.12 mark last season but is at just 0.96 this year. Aldridge sees 23.0% usage and collects a 20.6% rebounding share and 13.0% assist percentage — last season he pulled down 24.7% of the team’s rebounds and contributed 15.0% of their assists. His production has been partly impacted by the presence of new teammates, particularly productive young rebounder Keldon Johnson, though that does not fully account for the differentials. Regardless, Aldridge has been priced appropriately for the reduced production, and he lands as a relatively strong daily fantasy basketball pick tonight.

On FanDuel Aldridge costs just $5,600 and is a very viable option at the power forward spot. He lands in the optimal lineup 18.0% of the time, landing him 13th overall on the slate and third at the position. He boasts a strong 28.4% boom-score probability for the reduced salary, planting him atop the positional rankings in that category. Aldridge also stands out for his position-leading 5.2 leverage score. The public is simply reluctant to get to the player tonight, which makes him very appealing and a play for which it will be well worth exceeding the projected 12.8% public ownership.

On DraftKings Aldridge ranks more in the fine range. He carries an 8.7% optimal-lineup rate that is not overly impressive, and he only hits his boom score mark 9.6% of the time. This is largely due to a heavy salary. At $6,200 against a lower cap, there simply isn’t room for Aldridge to succeed at his reduced rates. He is a low probability play but does carry room to work given just a 2.0% public ownership projection. As a mix-and-match option, we could do worse.

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Michael Porter Jr. — Denver Nuggets

DraftKings — $7,000 — SF/PF / FanDuel — $6,500 — SF

Porter is a quality NBA DFS pick on both sites tonight. Porter should remain in line for significant minutes and attention in the Denver rotation tonight given the lingering injuries to several key players and the addition of a few others to the league’s health-and-safety protocols. Over the team’s last seven games, Porter has averaged 30.7 minutes, up by more than 3 minutes over his season average. He has posted 13.7 real-life points per game to go with a 28.1% rebounding rate, though assists are not something he seems to consider. For the price and clear opportunity, Porter has strong upside tonight.

Porter slots into either forward spot on DraftKings, where he is at the higher site-to-site cost. His positional flexibility gives the forward utility on the slate. We can reliably move Porter around the lineup while maintaining general upside and a relatively straight path toward the optimal lineup. He lands in the optimal construction in 10.6% of simulations for the site while maintaining an excellent 4.5 leverage score, meaning the public will not be on the player nearly enough given their 6.1% ownership projection. Getting to double or even triple the shares of Porter will not break us, even if he fails in a good spot.

The play looks stronger on FanDuel where Porter’s price drops by $500 against a higher cap. Porter fits into lineups very well on the blue site, landing as an optimal play 19.4% of the time at a needy position. He brings a positive leverage score to the table on this site as well, coming in with a 2.9 mark. The public will be on the player at a higher overall mark, but it is still not enough relative to the frequency with which we find him as an optimal play. Exceeding the public ownership on Porter seems like a smart play.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.