NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Ownership Projections

For Tuesday night, we get a full slate with nine NBA games on tap, and below are some of my favorite NBA daily fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on Awesemo’s grades and values.

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NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: Awesemo Grades | Feb. 23

Point Guard: James Harden

DraftKings Grades: A, Values: A

FanDuel Grades: A, Values: A

The Nets finally return home tonight after a five-game West Coast trip. Impressively, they won all five of these tilts, mostly due to the outstanding play from Harden. During this five-game stretch, Harden provided 64.9 DraftKings points per game. With Kevin Durant (hamstring) out in the past four, Harden’s usage has elevated to 32.2%, which is a large upgrade from the 25.5% he was obtaining across his previous five. He contributed an immense 1.8 DraftKings points per minute on their trip out west, and Durant will miss his fifth straight on Tuesday.

Per usual, the Nets find themselves competing in the highest game total of the slate (242 points), hosting the Kings, who have lost seven in a row. No team in the NBA ranks worse in defensive efficiency than Sacramento, and Harden just exposed them for 72.25 DraftKings points last Monday with Durant out of the lineup. In game totals above 240 points this season, Harden is generating a massive 66 DraftKings points per game. At only $10,700 on that site, he is rating as a top-ten point-per-dollar value for this nine-game slate.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 25.0%, FanDuel 21.0%

Point Guard: Saben Lee

DraftKings Grades: D, Values: A

FanDuel Grades: D, Values: D

Dennis Smith Jr. started at point guard for the Pistons on Sunday with Delon Wright (groin) sidelined, but it was Lee who took advantage of the opportunity. The rookie had only appeared in eight of Detroit’s first 30 games of the season, but he logged 32.3 minutes off the bench Sunday and flourished with 30 DraftKings points against the Magic. Pistons head coach Dwayne Casey had some high praise for Lee following the game, and while Smith will most likely remain a starter, Lee should receive more playing time again for Tuesday’s rematch with Orlando.

Lee has amassed a solid 0.8 DraftKings points per minute sans Wright, Blake Griffin (out, seeking trade) and Derrick Rose (traded to Knicks) and is a risk worth taking tonight, especially on DraftKings. FanDuel was quick to adjust Lee’s price after his success Sunday, but DraftKings left the young guard at a near-minimum $3,200.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 42.3%, FanDuel 0.3%

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Center: Clint Capela

DraftKings Grades: A, Values: B

FanDuel Grades: A, Values: A

After a six-game stretch of not seeing over 30 minutes, Capela has received at least 31 minutes of work in four consecutive contests. As the best fantasy producer on the Hawks this season (1.32 DraftKings points per minute), the bigger workload has resulted in 46 DraftKings points per game Capela, and he is now averaging 49.6 DraftKings points per game when he has played 30 minutes or more in a Hawks uniform. This is a sample size of 12 games, and Capela has supplied over 40 DraftKings points in 10 of those starts.

Atlanta has won two of their last three with Capela handling big minutes, and barring a blowout Capela should surpass the 30-minute threshold against a Cavaliers defense that is a complete mess right now. In their last 10, Cleveland is the worst-rated defense in the league and is giving up the second-most DraftKings points per game to opposing centers. Last but not least, Capela has only obtained a 6.8% DraftKings main GPP ownership across his last five, and he is expected to be under-owned again tonight based on Awesemo’s projections.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 10.9%, FanDuel 10.0%

Center: Nikola Jokic

DraftKings Grades: A, Values: A

FanDuel Grades: A, Values: A

With a ton of viable punts at our disposal tonight, we can easily pay up for two studs, and I love building lineups with both Jokic and Harden this evening. After a letdown performance against the Hawks on Sunday (43 DraftKings points), Jokic will be back on his home floor, facing a Portland defense that ranks second-to-last in defensive efficiency. I mention the home-court factor because Jokic’s home/away splits have been dramatic this season, with the big man contributing 62.7 DraftKings points per game in Denver, which is 6.8 more fantasy points than when he is on the road. Plus, the Nuggets are very short-handed right now, with all of JaMychal Green (shoulder), Paul Millsap (knee), Gary Harris (thigh) and P.J. Dozier (hamstring) confirmed out for Tuesday, leaving Jokic with a ton of responsibility.

Even with many key players missing, the Nuggets still carry a hefty implied total of 119.25 points, and this Blazers defense has surrendered the fourth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing centers in their last 10. In the six home contests that Denver has been projected for 115 points or higher this season, Jokic has been brilliant with 64.5 DraftKings points per game. Expect a huge night from the superstar, and I highly recommend going over weight on Jokic in GPPs.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 24.5%, FanDuel 31.9%

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