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NBA Daily Fantasy Picks Picks Based on Awesemo Grades & Values | 4/28/21




The NBA Slate Starter article breaks down the slate on Thursday April 29 featuring Lonzo Ball

With many crucial matchups on the calendar, tonight’s 10-game slate should produce some huge NBA daily fantasy scores. Most notably, the Clippers and Suns, who are only separated by one game in the standings, will go head-to-head in Phoenix tonight. The Jazz, who will be covered in more detail about below, are also in desperate need of a win to hold onto the top seed out West. With 20 NBA teams competing this evening, be prepared for some late-breaking news and be sure to keep checking back to Awesemo to see how we adjust our NBA DFS projections and daily fantasy basketball rankings for both DraftKings and FanDuel picks.

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NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: Awesemo Grades | April 28

Point Guard: Lonzo Ball

DraftKings Grades: B, Values: C

FanDuel Grades: C, Values: C

Ball’s $6,500 price tags for both DraftKings and FanDuel are simply too low for how well he has been playing. He has been relieved of his minutes restriction and has received 35.8 minutes per game in his past two after seeing less than 30 minutes in his first four back from the nagging hip injury. Thanks to the heavy workload, Ball has supplied 40.4 DraftKings points per game in these last two starts, and he should maintain this 35- to 40-minute role with the Pelicans only 4-point underdogs in Denver tonight.

Ball has averaged 38.8 DraftKings points in the past 10 games in which he has logged a minimum of 30 minutes. Tonight’s opponent, the Nuggets, have been weak at defending point guards, allowing the fifth-most DraftKings points per game to the position across their last five. Ball has only seen a 2.1% DraftKings’ main GPP ownership over his past two games, and Awesemo’s NBA DFS ownership projections are forecasting him for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday night.

NBA DFS Ownership Projection: DraftKings 5.4%, FanDuel 6.6%

Shooting Guard: Jordan Clarkson

DraftKings Grades: A, Values: A

FanDuel Grades: A, Values: A

Clarkson is a smash play tonight with Donovan Mitchell (ankle) and Mike Conley (hamstring) sidelined. Only once have the Jazz been without their top two guards this season. Clarkson joined the starting five that night and filled in admirably, posting 42.75 DraftKings points across 46 minutes in an overtime loss to the Lakers. Excluding the extra period, Clarkson saw 41 minutes with the starting role and is a lock for over 35 minutes in tonight’s must-win against the Kings. After shockingly dropping two in a row to the Timberwolves, Utah is only one game ahead of the Suns for the No. 1 seed in the West.

As they have been all season, the Kings are the worst defense in the association in terms of efficiency, and the Jazz sport the fourth-highest implied team total of 20 teams in action tonight despite Mitchell and Conley being unavailable. Clarkson leads the Jazz with a 31.3% usage rate when the two guards off the court, and Clarkson is rating as a top-three value for both DraftKings and FanDuel, per Awesemo’s NBA DFS projections.

NBA DFS Ownership Projection: DraftKings 42.4%, FanDuel 54.4%

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Small Forward: Joe Ingles

DraftKings Grades: B, Values: B

FanDuel Grades: B, Values: A

Ingles also benefits greatly from tonight’s situation for the Jazz, and gamers should be building around him and Clarkson in both cash games and GPPs. In that overtime thriller against the Lakers sans Conley and Mitchell, Ingles went off 53.25 DraftKings points, which set a new career high. While Clarkson picks up most of the slack in the scoring department with Conley and Clarkson missing, Ingles becomes the primary playmaker for Utah. Not only does his usage see a 4.8-point spike in this scenario, but Ingles’ assist rate sees a notable 7.4% upgrade, bringing him up to a team-best 37.5% assist percentage.

From a fantasy angle, this results in 1.02 DraftKings points per minute for Ingles, and he scored 35.25 DraftKings points against Sacramento earlier this month, even with Mitchell and Conley both active. Being able to roster Ingles at small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel is very valuable for this slate, and he is by far the top choice at the thin position.

NBA DFS Ownership Projection: DraftKings 11.8%, FanDuel 16.8%

Point Guard: Tyrese Haliburton

DraftKings Grades: B, Values: B

FanDuel Grades: B, Values: A

Do not let this matchup against the Jazz prevent locking in Haliburton tonight. Taking over for De’Aaron Fox, who is currently self-isolating from his team due the NBA’s health protocols, Haliburton has posted back-to-back performances over 40 DraftKings points as the Kings’ interim starting point guard. He only averages 30 minutes per game this season, but he has handled 36.5 minutes per game with Fox in quarantine and is guaranteed for big minutes tonight with Harrison Barnes (adductor) joining Fox on the inactive list. Additionally, Halliburton’s usage has been up to 26.7% in these starts for Fox, which is a large 7.9% differential from his average rate this year.

Not having to face Conley is also big boost. Conley has always been a lockdown defender throughout his career, and this season has been no different, with Conley ranking first of 90 eligible point guards in real defensive plus/minus. Utah has allowed their opponents to score 114.4 points per game in their last five with Conley out, and this game’s total is 222 points. Haliburton’s NBA DFS salaries are on the rise, but they are still far from correct for life without Fox on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.

NBA DFS Ownership Projection: DraftKings 14.6%, FanDuel 18.4%

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