NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Ownership Projections

On the menu for Wednesday night is an enormous 10-game slate, and below are some of the best NBA daily fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on Awesemo’s grades and values.

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NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: Awesemo Grades | March 31

Shooting Guard: Jordan Clarkson

DraftKings Grades: B, Values: A

FanDuel Grades: B, Values: A

Donovan Mitchell (personal) will miss his third game of the season tonight, opening the door for Clarkson to become the top offensive threat for the Jazz. Since the All-Star break Mitchell has been a usage monster for Utah, ranking sixth in the league in usage rate (32.6%). Over this span Clarkson has seen his usage rate increase to 33.6% when he has been on the floor without Mitchell. This is a 4.7-point increase from Clarkson’s average rate this season.

The Jazz will face the Grizzlies tonight, and this Memphis defense has been terrible at defending shooting guards this season, allowing the second-highest DraftKings points per game to the position. Even with Mitchell in the lineup for both meetings, Clarkson has exposed the Grizzlies for 33.6 DraftKings points per game this season. Now, with Mitchell absent, Clarkson’s ceiling is well above 40 fantasy points, and he is a lock at his soft price tags on both DraftKings and FanDuel. As of early Wednesday afternoon, Clarkson is the top point-per-dollar value of the night for both sites, via Awesemo’s projections.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 43.9%, FanDuel 52.6%

Shooting Guard: Hamidou Diallo

DraftKings Grades: C, Values: B

FanDuel Grades: C, Values: C

Diallo was finally set free Monday night, seeing 27.2 minutes and a 24.4% usage rate against the Raptors, which resulted in 43 DraftKings points. The Pistons were short on ball handlers in this win, with Dennis Smith Jr. (back) and Rodney McGruder (elbow) both inactive. These two have already been confirmed out again for Wednesday, creating a clear path to 25 to 30 minutes for Diallo against a Trail Blazers defense that is the second-worst unit in the league based on efficiency.

After a very quiet first two seasons in the NBA, Diallo has made a big leap this year, scoring 1.04 DraftKings points per minute. Including his terrific showing from Monday, Diallo is producing 33.6 DraftKings points per game in the 13 games he has exceeded the 25-minute mark this season. Diallo topped 30 DraftKings points in eight of those games. While FanDuel was quick to adjust his price all the way up to $5,800, Diallo’s salary on DraftKings dropped $100 since Monday night, making him an elite value play at only $4,600.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 18.1%, FanDuel 0.9%

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Point Guard: James Harden

DraftKings Grades: A, Values: B

FanDuel Grades: A, Values: B

Kyrie Irving returning from a three-game absence didn’t slow down Harden’s MVP campaign Monday. In 40 minutes of work, Harden erupted for a 78.75-DraftKings-point triple-double against the Timberwolves. Harden is now averaging 62 DraftKings points per game in his last 10 with Irving active, including a 73-DraftKings-point outburst against the Rockets. Harden will get another chance to dominate his former team tonight, and the Nets are projected to score the most points on the slate, with an implied team total of 121.75 points.

There is real blowout risk here with Brooklyn at home (Nets -12.5), but Harden is still without a doubt the best stud to pay up for tonight, with Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo both recently returning from injury and in tough matchups. The last four times the Nets have carried an implied team total of at least 120 points, Harden has hit over 70 fantasy points on three occasions.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 23.1%, FanDuel 22.9%

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Power Forward: Pascal Siakam

DraftKings Grades: A, Values: A

FanDuel Grades: A, Values: A

Siakam is the top value at the always thin power forward position tonight. Kyle Lowry (foot) has been ruled out, and Toronto just traded Norman Powell and Terence Davis away last week. In all the time he has played without these three, Siakam’s usage and assist rates have jumped 5.9% and 6.4%, respectively. He and the Raptors will head to Oklahoma City tonight to match up with a Thunder defense that has plummeted to 27th in defensive rating over their last 10 games.

Just this past Saturday, the team decided they will not play Al Horford for the rest of the season, as they shift their focus to developing their younger core. Despite being the oldest player on the team, Horford is the best defender on the Thunder roster. In the 18 they have played without Horford this season, Oklahoma City has yielded 116.6 points per game. This would rank as the fourth-most points allowed this season, and Siakam is a very difficult fade in this juicy matchup.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 30.0%, FanDuel 31.9%

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