NBA playoff action is underway, and there is NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg looks at some NBA DFS Picks to build around and fade for the Saturday, Sept. 5 slate.
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NBA DFS Picks: Values + Fades for 9/5
Value Pick: Gary Harris
DraftKings $4,000, FanDuel $4,000, Yahoo $10
The Nuggets got smoked in Game 1. Playing on one day rest after a grueling series against the Jazz, the outcome wasn’t completely unexpected. They should perform better after some additional time off. Since the score was so one-sided on Thursday, Denver took the starters out early to prepare for Game 2.
As for our NBA DFS lineups, one of the more encouraging signs for future value is that Harris moved into the starting lineup. He started at shooting guard with Monte Morris moving to a bench role. Harris didn’t play great, but this is true for everybody on Denver to open this series. I am giving him a pass and my main takeaway is that he started. Going forward, I anticipate him to continue to start in the backcourt and push for over 30 minutes. This gives Harris slight value in his price tag on a slate where we are desperate to find cheap plays.
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Stud Pick: Kyle Lowry
DraftKings $7,800, FanDuel $9,000, Yahoo $32
I think the Raptors comeback and win this series over the Celtics. Lowry is the catalyst for a comeback and it all starts with the crazy ending to Game 3. Half a second away from losing to Boston and sliding to a 3-0 deficit, OG Anunoby hit a buzzer beater to get Toronto in the win column. The shot is making the headlines, but don’t look past the insane pass Lowry made over Tacko Fall to setup the corner three. Lowry is the engine of this team and he’s too cheap across the industry, especially on DraftKings.
Unlike the Bucks and the nonsense that Budenholzer is playing with starters minutes, this is not a concern for the Raptors. As the Bucks make sure that Giannis Antetokounmpo is rested for the offseason, Lowry played 46.5 minutes last game to lock up a victory. Lowry put up a full line and finished with 54 DraftKings points. Assuming he plays over 40 minutes again, it’s hard to envision him busting. Both his floor and ceiling are massive with his current workload.
Fade Pick: Jamal Murray
DraftKings $9,100, FanDuel $8,600, Yahoo $36
Regression is finally starting to hit Murray. After an insane shooting performance against the Jazz to keep the Nuggets’ season alive, Murray is once again mortal. He made just 33% of his shots in the last two games and it’s noticeable that his usage dipped in a big way. After his usage spiked to well over 30% in the middle of the series against Utah, his usage is 24% in the last two games. For sure, Murray is still a great player and is going to put up some big games going forward. The issue I have here is the price tag and the matchup. The Clippers have the personnel to slow Murray down and we need him to outscore guys like Nikola Jokic, Kawhi Leonard, Jayson Tatum and Paul George to make his price tag worthwhile.
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