The NBA is back and with it comes NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg looks at some NBA DFS Picks to build around and fade for Sunday’s six-game slate.
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NBA Building Blocks: Picks, Values, Studs + Locks for the NBA’s Return | July 31
Value NBA DFS Picks: Jakob Poeltl
DraftKings $4,000, FanDuel $5,900, Yahoo $14, SuperDraft 1.85x
With LaMarcus Aldridge out for the season, Poeltl is now the Spurs’ starting center. Overall, it’s a role that he thrived in. While he did dud a couple times as chalk at center, we can’t ignore the many more good performances that outweigh the bad ones. Across the industry, Poeltl averages about 25 fantasy points as a starter, although that number is slightly skewed down since he got injured four minutes into one of his starts. On Friday against the Kings, Poeltl played 31 minutes, which was the third-most minutes he’s played all year. We know Popovich does odd things with his rotations, but it looks like Poeltl is locked into a significant role for now.
Not only is Poeltl a good fantasy producer who is fairly cheap, this is a great matchup for him. The Grizzlies defensive efficiency is slightly below average, and they play at a fast pace. Memphis plays at the seventh-quickest pace in the league, leading to this game having a healthy 236 total. The per-minute production of Poeltl combined with a good game environment should set him up to exceed his salary expectations.
Stud NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo
DraftKings $11,000, FanDuel $11,200, Yahoo $56, SuperDraft 1x
The Rockets allowed all of the points in their last game. Houston took social distancing a bit too literally and gave up 149 points to the Mavericks on Friday. If the Rockets show up with this kind of effort against the Bucks, they are going to get smoked. Giannis is the best per-minute fantasy producer in the NBA and the likely back-to-back MVP. Putting him in a game with a total of 243 should lead to a massive fantasy game.
Not only is the matchup for Giannis against the Rockets favorable, he also benefits from Eric Bledsoe not playing. Bledsoe is yet to return after testing positive for COVID-19 a couple of weeks ago. With Bledsoe off the court, Antetokounmpo has a 39.4% usage rate and scores about 70 fantasy points per 36 minutes. Combine this with the matchup, and I think Giannis is the highest-upside player on today’s slate. Even with stars like James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Luka Doncic playing today, Giannis looks like the best of the bunch.
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Fade NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox
DraftKings $7,900, FanDuel $7,700, Yahoo $35, SuperDraft 1.4x
After a huge game against the Spurs, I understand why DFS players might want to go back to the well with Fox. This makes sense, although this is a star-studded slate, and Fox is in a really difficult matchup. The Magic play at one of the slowest paces in the league and rank top 10 in defensive efficiency. This means Fox isn’t going to have the same benefit of playing a soft defense like the Spurs as he did on Friday. In addition, pricing is a bit of an issue. After the big performance in his first game of the restart, Fox is more expensive in a more difficult matchup. On a slate filled with games that should feature a ton of scoring, the Kings-Magic game has the lowest total of the day.
