NBA playoff action is underway and there is NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg looks at some NBA DFS Picks to build around and fade for Tuesday’s slate.
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NBA DFS Picks: Values + Fades for September 1
Value Pick: Gary Harris
DraftKings $3,900, FanDuel $4,500, Yahoo $12
On a two-game slate, it’s incredibly difficult to build lineups different than the field. This slate is no different and potentially more so than normal because there is a lack of value. At least Harris is a player that I don’t expect the field to roster and he has a realistic path to upside. The big concern is that the upside also comes with obvious downside.
Last game, Harris played in the bubble for the first time. He missed time due to an injury and hadn’t played in any NBA action since March. This meant a layoff of over five months for Harris. For this reason, Harris played just 21 minutes and could see limited action again. The one reason I am somewhat optimistic is because this is a Game 7. With everything on the line, Denver could push Harris to play more minutes in this game, and he is a quality basketball player. He made a difference on Sunday, and the Nuggets were +16 during his limited time on the court.
Stud Pick: Nikola Jokic
DraftKings $9,500, FanDuel $9,800, Yahoo $43
A lot of the attention tonight is going to go Donovan Mitchell and Jamal Murray. Rightfully so, because the two of them are playing out of their minds. It is a shock when either of them miss a shot at this point. This is all well and good, and it’s fine to watch, but I can’t believe their shooting is sustainable.
Due to how well the young guards are playing, it’s easy to forget that Jokic is the far better fantasy producer for the season. There is rhetoric online that Murray is now the best player on the Nuggets, and I can’t get behind that. I will have to change my mind if Murray continues to make 65% of his 3’s, although I don’t think that will happen. For the season, Jokic averages 46.61 DraftKings points compared to an average of 35.51 DraftKings points for Murray. Don’t let the last week erase the data from the rest of the season.
Fade Pick: Jaylen Brown
DraftKings $7,300, FanDuel $6,300, Yahoo $25
This is more of a fade on DraftKings than FanDuel. There isn’t a single player that I feel strongly about staying away from on FanDuel. In fact, Brown is one of the only viable small forward plays on FanDuel. On DraftKings where we have more positional flexibility, he’s overpriced. The price tag doesn’t make much sense to me, even though Gordon Hayward is out. The Raptors have one of the top defenses in the NBA, and Brown didn’t play particularly well in the first game of the series. In fact, his fantasy output is generally lacking in the postseason. Brown scored under 34 DraftKings points in four straight games, which isn’t nearly enough production relative to his salary. With Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker in the starting lineup, there isn’t quite enough usage for Brown to have a huge game.
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