NBA DFS action on Friday, Feb. 19, locks at 7:00 p.m. EST with a nine-game main slate on Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel. SuperDraft is going with a 7:30 p.m. EST lock with a seven-game slate. Before you lock in your lineups on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft, make sure to check out Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball picks, rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some daily fantasy basketball picks, including Fred VanVleet, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Vucevic and more.
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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks, Friday, February 19th
Yahoo Play of the Day – Jamal Murray: Denver Nuggets at Cleveland Cavaliers
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 35.12 | DraftKings: 36.08
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 3.2% | FanDuel 4.4% | DraftKings 0.7%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $29 | FanDuel $7,500 | DraftKings $8,000
Once again I am going to Jamal Murray as the Yahoo Play of the Day. While his price took a jump from $22 to $29 on Yahoo, this is still a fabulous situation. Denver is going to be without Gary Harris, P.J. Dozier, Paul Millsap and potentially Will Barton. Plus, they have lost five of their last eight, including a very winnable game on Wednesday in Washington.
While the Nuggets are nearly double-digit road favorites, they need to bank some quick wins, as they have slipped to eighth in the Western Conference playoff race. Clearly we should not expect another 50-fantasy-point outburst like Murry delivered to his backers two days ago. However, he averages just over a Yahoo fantasy point per minute and should see playing time in the mid-30s with room for more tonight. Do not worry about his game log against the Cavaliers last week. Denver cruised to a 38-point victory in that one, and Murray played just 25 minutes, which is the second fewest he has tallied all season. If you are not a fan of Murray, then look to Kemba Walker against Atlanta as a reasonable NBA DFS alternative.
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 58.58 | DraftKings: 60.77
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 34.2% | FanDuel 41.7% | DraftKings 30.1%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $55 | FanDuel $11,300 | DraftKings $10,800
How shocking is it to learn that Milwaukee has now lost their last five games? Life definitely comes at you fast when one is a marquee team that starts to slip. Now, to be fair, three of these losses came during a western swing at Phoenix, at Utah and now in Oklahoma City against the Thunder. However, the last two losses were at home to the Raptors 110-96 last night and 124-113 on Tuesday.
While the Bucks are still amazing on offense — among the league leaders with 115.2 points per 100 possessions — it is their defense that is allowing opponents to stay closer than they have in the past. After leading the league in defensive efficiency for two straight seasons, Milwaukee is just league average this year. They still have an elite scoring differential of 6.7 points, but that is well below the last two years’ differentials of 10.1 and 8.8 points per game. For perspective, last season’s 10.1 was the 12th best in modern NBA history. Milwaukee is currently third in the Eastern Conference with a 16-13 record; however, there are eight teams within four games in the standings.
During this five-game losing streak, Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 37.5 minutes, with 20.2 field-goal attempts. This has culminated in 31.4 points, 13.0 rebounds, 7.4 assists and 4.0 combined blocks/steals. While the Bucks are double-digit favorites tonight, they have shown that nothing is certain for them in the 2020-21 season.
Nikola Vucevic: Orlando Magic vs. Golden State Warriors
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 52.27 | DraftKings: 54.07
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 7.8% | FanDuel 11.3% | DraftKings 9.7%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $47 | FanDuel $9,700 | DraftKings $9,900
Golden State will be without James Wiseman and Kevon Looney, and Draymond Green is questionable with an ankle injury that he suffered in warmups, causing him to be a late scratch on Wednesday. Though Green is 6-foot-6, he is well accustomed to playing against opposing centers. If he is out, then the Warriors will be down to Eric Paschall, Juan Toscano-Anderson and Kelly Oubre as the players most likely to mark Nikola Vucevic. Yes, they will probably turn to some sort of matchup-zone defense, but with Vucevic having a capable inside-out game, this is a phenomenal matchup for him to exploit at all three levels.
Good Value
Fred VanVleet: Toronto Raptors at Minnesota Timberwolves
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 44.1 | DraftKings: 45.41
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 28.8% | FanDuel 36.9% | DraftKings 33.5%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $36 | FanDuel $8,000 | DraftKings $7,800
Kyle Lowry (ankle) missed last night’s victory in Milwaukee, and he has already been ruled out for tonight’s matchup in Minnesota. Fred VanVleet’s salary has not changed much since last night. However, the perception that he disappointed his fantasy supporters by falling just shy of the 40-fantasy-point plateau should work out in our favor.
When Lowry is off the court, VanVleet sees about a 10% increase in his per-minute fantasy production. The Timberwolves have lost six of their last seven games, and no opponent has failed to score at least 112 points during this stretch while averaging at least 117.9 points in regulation. VanVleet is a strong play in all formats tonight.
Risky Value
Cedi Osman: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Denver Nuggets
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 24.52 | DraftKings: 25.86
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 50.2% | FanDuel 42.1% | DraftKings 23.7%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $12 | FanDuel $4,200 | DraftKings $4,800
It is easy to understand the appeal for Cedi Osman at his current salary on Yahoo, which is just $2 above the minimum. On FanDuel he knocks out one of the pesky small forward slots at a discount. Additionally, he is averaging a respectable 0.8 fantasy points per minute this season. However, on DraftKings we can see that at his elevated salary he is not likely to garner even half of the popularity he will see on the other two sites.
This will be the third time I have called out Osman as a risky value when he was going to be wildly popular. Unfortunately, the other two times things did not go in my favor, and he posted two of his three best fantasy performances of the season. I am coming back for more as Osman is a wildly inconsistent player who sees most of his fantasy production coming from scoring.
Even though Denver is short-handed tonight, they are still a decent group of defenders, and this is not going to be a gimme situation for Osman. In his last dozen games, Osman is averaging 20.5 minutes, 8.4 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 0.7 steals for just shy of 16 fantasy points per game. Even if he draws another start and we give him the 33.3-minute average of his 13 starts this season, that works out to about 25 fantasy points, which coincidentally is within a point what his fantasy production has been in those starts. Go ahead and use him in your cash games (head-to-heads, 50/50s, double-ups and three-mans) as a block since he will be popular, but in tournaments there are many better options tonight with more upside and who are going to be rostered less by the masses.
Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies
- Grayson Allen: MEM vs. DET – $11
- Jared Vanderbilt: MIN vs. TOR – $10
- Cedi Osman: CLE vs. DEN – $12
SuperDraft Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks
- Ja Morant: MEM vs. DET – 1.50x multiplier
- Fred VanVleet: TOR at MIN – 1.30x multiplier
- Saddiq Bey: DET at MEM – 1.90x multiplier
Final Thoughts on the Friday, Feb. 19 NBA DFS Slate
With just one game at 10 p.m. EST that has a lot of injury news pending, we are going to want to be flexible if rostering players from that game. While the matchup is tough, the Clippers reserves are discounted if they are going to be filling the void left by Kawhi Leonard and Paul George for another game. Keep in mind that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a slam-dunk play on Yahoo may be a below-average NBA DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
