This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and myself from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
If you have any questions after reading the article, always feel free to DM me in Slack.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Jan. 11
Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic (+10): 224.5
Milwaukee Bucks
Giannis Antetokounmpo missed Milwaukee’s last game, but he’s probable tonight against Orlando. Assuming he suits up, there are no notable injuries on the Bucks.
Antetokounmpo stands out as the top play from Milwaukee, as usual. His rates are down across the board this season, which is concerning, but he has still averaged 1.64 DraftKings points per minute. He has also averaged 31.4 minutes per game this season, which is up a minute from last season, and we’ve seen him play about 36 minutes in most competitive games. There’s certainly no guarantee that this game will be competitive, but his increased playing time in close games raises his ceiling.
Besides his play, the other reason that Antetokounmpo stands out as the top option from Milwaukee is that the salaries on the other main pieces increased before of his absence last game. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday both are talented enough and involved enough to have a big game, but their rising salaries make it difficult to view them as anything more than secondary tournament options as long as Giannis plays. Middleton is more favorably priced on FanDuel than DraftKings if you’re looking for a spot to roster him.
Brook Lopez is still affordable, particularly on FanDuel, but he’s difficult to trust since he’s the fourth or fifth option offensively and doesn’t contribute much in the way of peripherals with only an 8.9 percent rebounding rate and 3.3 percent assist rate this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200)
Orlando Magic
Update: Evan Fournier is doubtful, which solidifies the minutes and usage for the players mentioned.
Fournier is questionable again for Orlando, so we’ll have to wait and see if he returns. Markelle Fultz, Michael Carter-Williams, Jonathan Isaac, Chuma Okeke and Al-Farouq Aminu all remain out for the Magic.
This is an awful team right now as they are dealing with so many key injuries. Still, there are a few spots that we can look to target tonight against the Bucks. Nikola Vucevic typically will play 33 to 34 minutes in competitive games and he has averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute this season. He leads the team with a 26.1 percent usage rate and 18.7 percent rebounding rate. His 18.2 percent assist rate is the highest on the team for a non-point guard. The Bucks didn’t have an answer for him last postseason and I don’t think that they will tonight either.
Aaron Gordon also offers some value as he is no longer playing limited minutes. Orlando announced before their last game that his playing time would increase, and he logged 35.5 minutes against Dallas. Gordon has a 24.2 percent usage rate this season and he has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute.
Terrence Ross also offers some upside as a scorer off the bench. He played 32.5 minutes last game and we should expect another 30-32 minutes as long as this game is competitive, with those minutes being even more secure if Fournier is out again. Ross doesn’t contribute peripherals, which makes him a low-floor option, but his 25.5 percent usage rate is second on the team. Ross also leads the team with 5.9 three-point attempts per game and the Bucks have allowed the eighth-most three-point attempts per game this season.
Cole Anthony has only averaged 0.64 DraftKings points per minute in 30.1 minutes per game in his two starts in place of Fultz. While his production has been terrible, the opportunities have been there. He has a 23.2 percent usage rate in those two starts and leads the team with 8.5 potential assists. He’s a risky option, but he is still affordable on FanDuel in particular.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($8,900), Aaron Gordon ($6,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($9,000), Aaron Gordon ($6,600), Cole Anthony ($4,500)
Memphis Grizzlies at Cleveland Cavaliers (+2): 204.5
Memphis Grizzlies
There are no new injuries for Memphis, but they’re still missing Jaren Jackson Jr., Ja Morant and John Konchar from their normal rotation.
This is one of the least appealing teams on the slate as they are playing in the game with the lowest total, they are running a deep rotation every game and their individual prices have risen as a result of playing several games without Morant.
Jonas Valanciunas is the best per-minute producer on the team. He only played 13.6 minutes last game because he was ruled out at halftime due to COVID protocols. He’s been cleared for this game, so we should expect him to get back to his normal 26 to 28 minute role. Valanciunas has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute overall this season and 1.30 DraftKings points per minute in six games without Morant. In those games, he has a 26.6 percent usage rate and 20.9 percent rebounding rate. The problem for Valanciunas is that we rarely see him play more than 30 minutes and he often plays even less than that. Still, he is such a strong per-minute producer that he can pay off his salary in limited playing time and, if he does happen to play more than normal, he is likely to be someone that helps you win a tournament.
Outside of Valanciunas, I have virtually no interest in this team. Even with Valanciunas missing half of their last game, the only two players who played at least 30 minutes with Tyus Jones and Brandon Clarke. Clarke’s FanDuel salary is appealing as it still hasn’t increased much, but he’s relatively expensive now on DraftKings for a player who has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute alongside Valanciunas since last season and will play most of his minutes next to the big man. Kyle Anderson is also cheap on FanDuel, but he’s not as appealing a play right now as he has been for most of the season because he’s no longer the starting power forward with Clarke in the lineup, so we expect fewer rebounds. He also is competing with De’Anthony Melton for touches with the second unit, whereas he was the default back-up point guard when Melton was sidelined.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jonas Valanciunas ($7,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jonas Valanciunas ($6,900), Brandon Clarke ($5,600)
Cleveland Cavaliers
Collin Sexton has missed the last couple of games for Cleveland and he’s questionable again tonight. Kevin Love, Darius Garland, Dante Exum, Kevin Porter Jr., Dylan Windler and Matthew Dellavedova are all out.
Andre Drummond is a top option regardless of Sexton’s status. We’ve seen him play minutes alongside JaVale McGee two games in a row and the matchup against a frontcourt with Valanciunas and Clarke could allow Cleveland to use them together again. The reason this is useful for Drummond is that it allows McGee to get his normal number of minutes with Drummond playing more than he usually does when McGee is strictly his back-up. He played 41.3 minutes last game against Milwaukee and 37.3 minutes in the previous game against Memphis, where Drummond and McGee were on the floor together for about six and a half minutes. If Sexton plays, we may see Cleveland stop using them alongside each other since they wouldn’t be quite as short-handed, but it’s not out of the question that they would continue to do so. Drummond has averaged 1.47 DraftKings points per minute this season. He leads the team with a 31.8 percent usage rate and 27.0 percent rebounding rate. He is a good play if he only plays 32 minutes and one of the best plays on the slate if he approaches 38 minutes again.
If Sexton plays and isn’t limited, he looks like a good value as his salary has decreased slightly in his absence. Sexton has the second-highest usage rate on the team at 26 percent and he has averaged 37.3 minutes per game this season. Most of his value comes from the number of minutes that he plays, as he has only averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season as a scoring-first guard who doesn’t contribute many assists or rebounds. Therefore, I’m much less interested if we get word of any sort of minutes limit.
If Sexton sits, Cedi Osman is one of the primary beneficiaries. In the two games that Sexton has missed, Osman has averaged 34.4 minutes per game (38 in one game and only 30 in the other) with a 26.6 percent usage rate and 21.6 percent assist rate. He is a volatile option at his price point, even without Sexton, simply because he isn’t very good, but the opportunities will be there.
Damyean Dotson actually leads the team by a wide margin with 10.5 potential assists per game in the two games he has played without Sexton. He has also averaged 38.2 minutes per game. He only has a 19.9 percent usage rate in those games and we have a long track record of him being a mediocre fantasy performer, but he warrants some consideration if Sexton is out given the role that he has played in his absence.
Larry Nance Jr. has only averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute this season as his production has predictably suffered with virtually no minutes played at center. Still, he has averaged 35 minutes per game, and he is third on the team with five and a half potential assists per game in Sexton’s absence. I think that he is priced appropriately for his median projection, but there is still some upside given how many minutes he plays.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond ($9,200), Collin Sexton ($6,800 if active and not on a minutes limit)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond ($9,900), Collin Sexton ($6,900 if active and not on a minutes limit), Cedi Osman ($5,100- better if Sexton is out)
Phoenix Suns at Washington Wizards (+6.5): 229.5
Phoenix Suns
Cameron Payne is doubtful and Jalen Smith remains out.
It may not seem important, but Payne being out actually makes a difference in how we need to look at Phoenix. Typically this season, Payne has been used as a true back-up point guard and the Suns haven’t staggered Chris Paul and Devin Booker. Without Payne last game, at least one of Paul or Booker was on the floor for every minute of the game. Booker has played 121 minutes without Paul on the floor this season and has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute with a 33.2 percent usage rate and 27.8 percent assist rate. Paul has played 76 minutes without Booker and has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute. His usage rate is only 18.8 percent over those minutes, but I expect it will increase as the sample grows.
The point here is that, in addition to one of the most favorable matchups possible against the Wizards, Booker and Paul (and especially Booker) have the opportunity to produce at higher rates than they have so far this season because of a small change in the rotation. Between about 35 and 45 percent of Booker’s minutes are likely to be without Paul on the floor tonight and about 35 to 38 percent of Paul’s minutes are likely to be without Booker. Both players have higher floors, median projections and ceilings than they have had in other games this season.
Deandre Ayton should benefit from the matchup against the Wizards as they’re a poor rebounding team who are now also missing their starting center. Ayton’s playing time has been a bit of a concern this season as he has only averaged 30.7 minutes per game. He played 33.7 minutes against Indiana last game, however, and has played at least 30 minutes in five straight games so he is trending in the right direction. Ayton has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season with an 18 percent usage rate that is down about five points from last season. It’s likely that his usage increases as the season goes on, however, because he is mostly playing alongside players with similar usage rates to the players that he played with last season.
Cameron Johnson’s price point is appealing on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s averaged 23.6 minutes per game and 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season. He has closed Phoenix’s last two games over Jae Crowder, though Crowder was in foul trouble in one of those games. We’ve typically seen Phoenix allow Johnson to play more minutes in games that he is playing well and targeting a cheap player who is allowed to play more minutes when he is producing is a great tournament strategy.
Crowder and Mikal Bridges can both be used as secondary tournament options because of the excellent matchup with the Wizards, but I don’t expect to rely heavily on any of them. They are both more favorably priced on FanDuel than DraftKings. I would not play more than two of Bridges, Crowder and Johnson in the same lineup since only two of them can be expected to close the game.
I expect to get a lot of exposure to this Suns team, with most of it going to Booker, Paul and Ayton. Where I can’t afford them, I’ll start to look to the less expensive options just because it’s difficult to see how this team fails entirely in this matchup.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Devin Booker ($7,900), Chris Paul ($7,200), Deandre Ayton ($7,300), Cameron Johnson ($4,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Devin Booker ($7,600), Chris Paul ($6,900), Deandre Ayton ($6,700), Jae Crowder ($4,600), Cameron Johnson ($4,300)
Washington Wizards
Russell Westbrook and Thomas Bryant are both out for Washington, so there is a lot of opportunity available here. Bradley Beal missed Washington’s last game due to contact tracing, but he isn’t on the injury report for tonight’s game.
This is a pace-down spot for the Wizards as the Suns rank last in the league in pace this season, but I’m not that concerned about it since the Wizards play at such a fast pace themselves and there is a lot of extra usage and playing time available with the absences of Westbrook and Bryant.
Beal has averaged 1.41 DraftKings points per minute with a 36.7 percent usage rate and 19.2 percent assist rate in 296 minutes played this season. In 112 minutes without Westbrook on the floor, Beal has averaged 1.63 DraftKings points per minute with a 41.4 percent usage rate and 25.8 percent assist rate. He is one of the best scorers in the NBA and he will see a bump in assist opportunities without Westbrook on the floor.
We can’t take too much from the rotation last game since Beal was also out, but we can try and gain information from the frontcourt rotation after Bryant left the game with his injury. Rui Hachimura had three fouls in the first half so he didn’t close the second quarter, but he did close the game at center. There is a good chance that we see a normal Washington closing lineup consisting of Neto or Ish Smith, Beal, Deni Avdija, Davis Bertans and Hachimura now that Bryant is out for the season. That may not be the case tonight since Phoenix has a traditional center in Ayton, but there is at least the possibility of more productive minutes for Hachimura. Bertans should see more consistent minutes as well. He only played 22 minutes against Miami, but I don’t expect that to be the norm moving forward.
Robin Lopez immediately replaced Bryant when he was injured and then started the second half in his place. Lopez has averaged 0.71 DraftKings points per minute this season. He only played eight second half minutes without Bryant last game and I think there is a good chance that we will see Lopez play about 20 minutes in a lot of games with Moritz Wagner also playing about 20 minutes and then the Wizards using a small lineup the rest of the time. Tonight’s matchup against Ayton makes it more likely that Lopez and Wagner combine for more than 40 minutes, but it’s a coin flip which one of them gets the bulk of those minutes. Wagner has been adept at drawing offensive fouls throughout his time with the Wizards and Scott Brooks has looked to him down the stretch in the past against high-usage centers, so I don’t feel confident assuming Lopez is the closing center even if he is the starting center. Wagner has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute in 45 minutes this season and 0.99 DraftKings points per minute in 880 minutes since the start of last season. It’s easy to see how either of these guys fail but, assuming similar ownership, Wagner is actually my preferred option since they have the same risks but Wagner is the better fantasy producer.
Raul Neto and Smith both have relatively low floors but increased ceilings in Westbrook’s absence. They’ve only played 24 minutes alongside each other this season and they combined for 48 minutes last game despite both of Westbrook and Beal being out, so I don’t expect them to both be strong plays tonight. Whichever of them is playing better will probably be the closing point guard, though we could also see Beal run the point alongside Avdija, Bertans, Hachimura and one of the centers if Brooks elects to close with a bigger lineup while also trying to maximize the shooters that he has on the floor. The point here is that I’m not confident in either of Neto or Smith’s floor but, if one of them is playing well, they have a path to 28 minutes and being a reasonable value option.
To summarize, I think the Wizards have a lot of viable options but only one true core option in Beal. This is a team where grouping will be very important when you make your lineups. There are multiple ways that the Wizards could elect to close this game as they could go with a traditional center or they could go small with Hachimura. If they go with a traditional center, they could elect to go big throughout the lineup with Beal as the closing point guard. The closing lineup will probably be decided in part by who is playing well, so the cheap options have higher than normal ceilings, but their floors remain low. Also, the pricing on the secondary pieces is more favorable on FanDuel, especially Hachimura and Bertans
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Bradley Beal ($9,900)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Bradley Beal ($10,100), Rui Hachimura ($4,900)
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New York Knicks at Charlotte Hornets (-4.5): 212
New York Knicks
Reggie Bullock is out tonight for New York which should primarily open up more minutes for Austin Rivers.
Julius Randle played 38.5 minutes last night despite not playing the final seven minutes of the game due to a blowout. Coach Thibodeau continues to run Randle into the ground, which is great for DFS purposes. Not only has Randle averaged 37.7 minutes per game this season, but he has also averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute. He continues to lead the team in usage rate, rebounding rate and assist rate. His elevated price tag means that there are plenty of strong alternatives priced around him, but he should be viewed as a DFS stud as long as he keeps playing this many minutes and contributing in every category while he is on the floor.
R.J. Barrett and Elfrid Payton both look like secondary options in tournaments. Barrett isn’t a great fantasy producer at only 0.85 DraftKings points per minute, but he has averaged 38.8 minutes per game this season, so he offers value simply based on playing time. Payton has been a slightly better per-minute producer at 0.92 DraftKings points per minute, but his playing time isn’t as consistent. Both players have the ability to go for 50 fantasy points at low ownership, but they’re both slightly overpriced for their median projections on DraftKings. Payton is underpriced on FanDuel at only $5,500.
Mitchell Robinson is trending toward even more playing time it appears. He played 41 minutes two games ago, but Nerlens Noel was out so I chalked it up to Noel’s absence. Last night, however, Robinson played 34.4 minutes and sat the final four minutes of the blowout. Robinson has only produced 0.86 DraftKings points per minute this season compared to 1.03 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season as his rebounding rate and usage rate are both down this season. I’m also not ready to say that he is going to consistently play 36-plus minutes in competitive games. But his playing time over the last couple of games is at least something to keep in mind.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle ($9,600)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle ($9,400), Elfrid Payton ($5,500)
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets remain healthy, with the exception of Cody Zeller, who will be out again, but his absence is baked into everyone’s prices at this point.
This is a weirdly tough matchup for the Hornets as the Knicks have played at the second slowest pace in the league this season while allowing the eighth-fewest points per 100 possessions. We have been conditioned to think of New York as a team that allows a ton of fantasy points to their opponents, but that hasn’t been the case so far this season.
Gordon Hayward and LaMelo Ball are the highest upside options from Charlotte as Hayward is regularly playing 35-plus minutes in competitive games and Ball has averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute this season. Hayward has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.5 percent usage rate, 8 percent rebounding rate and 20.4 percent assist rate while Ball has a 24.6 percent usage rate, 13.3 percent rebounding rate and 35.3 percent assist rate. Ball’s playing time isn’t as consistent, but it has been trending upward since the start of the season. All three of Ball, Terry Rozier and Graham played at least 31 minutes last game, which is a great sign for Ball’s playing time going forward as he will be easier to trust the more as James Borrego becomes more willing to play him alongside Rozier and Graham.
P.J. Washington played 36 minutes last game and we continue to see that he is a great fantasy option in competitive games where he stays out of foul trouble- we just haven’t had that many of them this season. Overall, he has averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute this season while benefitting from being the back-up center in Zeller’s absence. The problem with Washington now is that his price tag has elevated because of his strong performances and it is no longer accounting for his downside. He can still exceed his current salary in his good games, but there is much less room for error.
Rozier and Devonte’ Graham are similar to Washington in that they have the ability to exceed their salary, but they’re overpriced for their median expectations. Rozier is the more appealing of the two as he has a 24.2 percent usage rate compared to 17.7 percent for Graham. Graham has the better assist numbers, but we typically need our guys to put the ball in the basket in order to have truly big games.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LaMelo Ball ($7,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: LaMelo Ball ($7,400), Gordon Hayward ($7,800)
Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks (-6.5): 221.5
Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers will be without all of Seth Curry, Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons, Shake Milton, Furkan Korkmaz, Matisse Thybulle, Terrance Ferguson and Vincent Poirier. Mike Scott and Joel Embiid are probable. Philadelphia had a seven-man rotation in their last game and, while they will have more bodies available tonight, they are still extremely short-handed.
Tyrese Maxey, Danny Green and Embiid should all be in the starting lineup and will be the easiest to trust since they’re actually NBA level players. Maxey was excellent in his first career start last game and remains one of the best values on the slate. Green played 36.2 minutes last game and I expect similar playing time tonight, making him another strong value as he has averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute this season and should get a few more shot attempts than normal tonight. Embiid has been playing about 36 minutes in competitive games this season and the Sixers will need a big game from him if they’re going to compete with Atlanta. Embiid has averaged 1.52 DraftKings points per minute this season. Since the start of last season, Embiid has played 290 minutes without any of Simmons, Harris or Al Horford on the floor. He has averaged 1.64 DraftKings points per minute with a 38.7 percent usage rate, 23.7 percent rebounding rate and 20.9 percent assist rate.
Isaiah Joe and Dakota Mathias were the starters last game, but it isn’t set in stone that they’ll start again tonight. Scott was unavailable last game but he should be back tonight so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him draw the start. He has averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute in 484 minutes without Simmons, Harris or Embiid on the floor since last season. He is minimum salary and probably plays 30-plus minutes tonight assuming he is healthy. Joe, the 76ers’ second-round pick, has played 86 minutes, including the preseason, and has averaged 0.57 DraftKings points per minute. He is difficult to trust since we have no sample of him producing at a high level, but he played about 45 minutes last game and is likely to play into the mid-thirties tonight. Mathias has averaged 0.65 DraftKings points per minute in 86 minutes, including the preseason, while Paul Reed has averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute in 31 minutes. All of these options, except Scott, are risky and I would rank them behind the main three that I mentioned before. You’ll probably want exposure to them if you’re playing multiple tournament lineups, however, since there are so many minutes available for tonight’s game.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid ($9,800), Tyrese Maxey ($4,700), Danny Green ($4,700), Mike Scott ($3,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid ($9,700), Tyrese Maxey ($5,200), Danny Green ($4,800), Mike Scott ($3,500)
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta is also short-handed, though not nearly as thin as the 76ers. The Hawks will be without Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kris Dunn, Onyeka Okongwu, Rajon Rondo and Danilo Gallinari. The only one of those players who is newly injured is Bogdanovic. Trae Young, Kevin Huerter, Bruno Fernando and Tony Snell are all probable.
Young has had back-to-back disappointing games as he combined to shoot 7-27 in two games against the Hornets. I had mentioned that the Hornets were the best team in the league so far at defending the pick-and-roll and that Young averages the most pick-and-roll possessions per game. Tonight’s matchup should be more favorable as the Sixers are mostly playing their third unit and I don’t expect them to be able to do much defensively to slow down Atlanta. There is some risk with Young since he is dealing with a wrist injury, but that doesn’t affect his massive ceiling. He enters tonight’s game averaging 1.25 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.8 percent usage rate and 39.5 percent assist rate. I expect my lineups to lean toward “stars and scrubs” builds tonight with all the value available and Young is one of the stars I would like to pay up for.
John Collins and Clint Capela look like secondary tournament options as we can expect 30 to 32 minutes from Collins and 28 to 30 minutes from Capela based on Atlanta’s recent rotations. Both players are productive on a per-minute basis, with Collins averaging 1.13 DraftKings points per minute and Capela averaging 1.17 DraftKings points per minute. I can’t rely on either player to play enough minutes to be a core option for me on this slate, but they are appealing tournament options assuming they won’t have much ownership. Both players are slightly less expensive on FanDuel than they are on DraftKings.
The rest of Atlanta isn’t overly appealing, even with Bogdanovic out. We probably see a couple extra minutes for all three of Huerter, De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish but none of them are great per-minute players and they’re all priced fairly for their production. Huerter and Hunter have averaged 0.91 and 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season while Reddish has averaged 0.78 DraftKings points per minute.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young ($9,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young ($8,800), John Collins ($7,200), Clint Capela ($6,400)
Toronto Raptors at Portland Trail Blazers (-5): 230.5
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors’ injury report hasn’t been released yet as they’re on the second leg of a back-to-back. I’m assuming for now that there are no new injuries, but keep an eye out for updates throughout the day.
Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam have averaged 36.5, 35.7 and 35.7 minutes per game this season as they are three of the league leaders in minutes played. O.G. Anunoby isn’t far behind with 34.8 minutes per game, but he isn’t as productive as fantasy player as the other three.
Lowry has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute with a 22 percent usage rate and 31.2 percent assist rate this season while VanVleet has been more assertive offensively so far with a 24.2 percent usage rate and 1.18 DraftKings points per minute. Siakam leads the team with a 25.3 percent usage rate and he has also contributed a 12.4 percent rebounding rate and 19.7 percent assist rate as he fills out the stat sheet in a variety of ways. All three players are high upside options against the Blazers tonight, though I wouldn’t go so far as to say they are priorities in the context of the entire slate.
Norman Powell started last night’s game as the Raptors went small and started Siakam at center (which will potentially increase Siakam’s value going forward). Powell only played 22.4 minutes and his salary increased, so I’m not particularly interested unless one of the main pieces is out since that will open up more usage for Powell.
One interesting idea in large field tournaments on DraftKings is to take a shot on Alex Len tonight. There is no guarantee he plays, so understand that there is a lot of risk. The reason that I am interested is that he is $3,100 and has averaged almost one fantasy point per minute for his career. He has seemingly surpassed Aron Baynes in the rotation (Baynes is also $3,100 and the rest of this logic applies to him as well if you think he plays ahead of Len). Len started and played five minutes against the Kings two games ago and then neither Len nor Baynes played last game. The Kings are a small team, however, as they used Richaun Holmes and Marvin Bagley at center against Toronto. Similarly, the Warriors, last night’s opponent, have a relatively small group of centers with James Wiseman, Kevon Looney and Eric Paschall. Tonight’s matchup with Portland is a bit different as they will use Jusuf Nurkic and Enes Kanter, two big, more traditional centers, for close to, if not all of, 48 minutes. The Raptors could take their chances and make Portland adapt to their small lineups with Siakam and Boucher at center, but they could also choose to go bigger and use one of Len or Baynes. This is one of the last games on the slate, so we won’t have a starting lineup before lock. This is a lot of words to talk about a player who may not even play, but I think it’s important to note that we can’t totally trust Toronto’s frontcourt rotation as we’ve seen them use different combinations of players based on different matchups and the Blazers’ frontcourt is bigger than the other frontcourts that Toronto has faced recently.
Chris Boucher remains a high-upside option in tournaments, but we’ve seen him lose playing time against bigger frontcourts this season so there is a little bit more risk tonight than there was in recent games against the Kings and the Warriors.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Fred VanVleet ($8,500), Kyle Lowry ($8,200), Pascal Siakam ($8,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Fred VanVleet ($8,200), Kyle Lowry ($7,700), Pascal Siakam ($8,400), O.G. Anunoby ($5,500)
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers are at full strength tonight, except for Zach Collins who has been out all season.
Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are both high-upside options as usual. Their minutes have been staggered this season, which increases both of their ceilings since they get about 30 to 35 percent of their minutes without the other one on the floor. McCollum is the bigger beneficiary, since he typically takes on a secondary role when he plays alongside Lillard. Lillard has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute while McCollum has averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute so far this season. They have almost identical usage rates at 29.2 and 29.3 percent, while Lillard has the slight edge in assist rate at 29.5 percent to 24.9 percent. I do expect Lillard’s per-minute production to surpass McCollum’s, but that’s also why he is more expensive.
Jusuf Nurkic hasn’t played as many minutes as we would like this season, as he typically is only playing about 27 or 28 minutes even in competitive games. He has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute this season and is inexpensive thanks to his lack of playing time, so there is still a high ceiling here for the salary. The presence of Enes Kanter off the bench just limits how many minutes we can reasonably expect Nurkic to play.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Damian Lillard ($9,700), C.J. McCollum ($8,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Damian Lillard ($9,600), C.J. McCollum ($8,900)
Indiana Pacers at Sacramento Kings (+5.5): 227.5
Indiana Pacers
Domantas Sabonis should be able to dominate this Kings’ frontcourt that hasn’t been able to stop anybody this season. Sacramento has allowed the most points in the paint to opponents and they also have the worst defensive rating in the league. Luke Walton mentioned after Sacramento’s game against Toronto that he needs to start using Hassan Whiteside more to improve their interior defense, and Whiteside played about 24 minutes against Portland last game, but I don’t think adding him to the rotation is going to suddenly make the Kings a team that we don’t want to target players against. Sabonis has been exceptional this season, averaging 1.27 DraftKings points per minute in 37.7 minutes per game. He leads the Pacers in rebounding rate at 19 percent and is second in assist rate and usage rate.
Malcolm Brogdon played another 39.2 minutes in his last game, giving him an average of 40.5 minutes per game in five games since T.J. Warren’s injury. One of those games went to overtime, but he played 41 minutes in regulation. Brogdon has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 23.5 percent usage rate and team-leading 29.3 percent assist rate. Brogdon’s 13.8 drives per game ranks 20th in the NBA and his 7.2 field goal attempts on drives ranks ninth, so he should be able to take advantage of Sacramento’s weak interior defense as well.
Victor Oladipo has averaged 34.9 minutes per game since Warren’s injury while Myles Turner has averaged 31.1 minutes per game. Oladipo leads the team with a 26.3 percent usage rate and his 54.1 percent true shooting rate is up about four points from last season- and in line with his career numbers. Turner has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute and has immense block upside as he has averaged 4.1 blocks per game this season.
Aaron Holiday, Justin Holiday and Doug McDermott should all play into the mid-twenties, with Justin Holiday approaching 30 minutes. I can see taking tournament fliers on them if you’re playing 150 lineups in a large field GPP, but I think there is better value on the slate if you’re trying to prioritize within a few lineups.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis ($9,300), Malcolm Brogdon ($8,300), Victor Oladipo ($6,900)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis ($9,200), Malcolm Brogdon ($8,400), Victor Oladipo ($7,000)
Sacramento Kings
Buddy Hield and Holmes are questionable tonight. Holmes was a late scratch last game while Hield’s addition to the injury report is new. If Holmes sits, it solidifies Whiteside in the rotation (more on that to come) and opens up more center minutes for Bagley. It also will clear the path for Tyrese Haliburton to play more minutes. If Hield sits, it will also benefit Haliburton’s minutes and should allow more minutes for Cory Joseph as well.
De’Aaron Fox is typically the starting point for the Kings, but he was on a minutes restriction in his last two games after dealing with an injury. I haven’t heard if the restriction will be lifted tonight, but it makes him a very risky play on a slate full of top-tier guard options. If you are looking to gamble on Fox, he is most favorably priced on FanDuel at $7,300.
Hield has been awful this season, averaging just 0.77 DraftKings points per minute with a 19.1 percent usage rate. I fully expected his usage to have moved into the 22 to 23 percent range by now but it hasn’t happened. He’s only $5,000 on FanDuel so you could gamble on him there just based on price, but there is no shortage of other strong plays tonight.
Haliburton is likely to top 30 minutes tonight, whether it is because Holmes doesn’t play, Hield doesn’t play or Luke Walton just finds some other way to get him on the floor. He’s been extremely impressive so far this season and has clearly played his way into more minutes. The problem is that his salary has come up, especially on DraftKings, so he’s mostly just a FanDuel play at $5,400.
The frontcourt is where I think the most appealing Kings options are, but there is a lot of risk as well because we don’t really know what Sacramento’s rotation is going to look like. Holmes has been starting at center and playing about 30 minutes in most competitive games. He’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute, but the Kings have also been getting destroyed inside so it’s possible that Luke Walton starts taking some minutes from Holmes in an effort to improve their interior defense. On top of that, he’s questionable so he may not even play.
Bagley has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute this season and is second to Fox with a 24.4 percent usage rate. He started the last game at center with Holmes out, and it’s possible that we see the same thing tonight. That said, his defense in particular has been a problem with Whiteside even saying after their last game that Bagley should take it personally that teams are constantly looking to attack him. Bagley is cheap enough that he has a nice ceiling for his salary, but there is also risk of him only getting 24 to 26 minutes for a variety of reasons.
Harrison Barnes has been more productive than normal this season, averaging 0.93 DraftKings points per minute and 34.4 minutes per game. He’s appropriately priced so I don’t think he’s a great value, but I typically find myself using him as a last piece in type of guy in tournaments.
Whiteside is an interesting piece in tournaments. The problem is that his salary on DraftKings has already increased from $3,200 to $4,200. He played 24 minutes off the bench last game with Holmes out and we could see similar run tonight if Holmes sits since the Kings need to try and find a way to defend Sabonis. The problem with his increased salary is that if we only get 16 to 18 minutes, he’s unlikely to be a good play. When he was minimum salary last slate, there wasn’t much risk as long as you were confident he would be in the rotation. He’s a high-upside tournament play, but there is plenty of risk.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Marvin Bagley ($5,700), Hassan Whiteside ($4,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox ($7,300), Marvin Bagley ($5,700), Tyrese Haliburton ($5,400 if he starts for Hield or Holmes)
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