This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 PM EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and myself from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
If you have any questions after reading the article, always feel free to DM me in Slack.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Jan. 8
Phoenix Suns at Detroit Pistons (+7.5): 216
Phoenix Suns
The Suns are at full strength tonight, so we’ll be looking to their main three players as usual. Devin Booker remains a scoring dependent tournament option that is a little bit overpriced for his current role since he is losing peripherals to Chris Paul. Booker still has a 29.5 percent usage rate this season so he has a high ceiling because we know there will be some nights where he takes over the game as a scorer, but his assist rate has fallen from 28.8 percent last season to 20.7 percent this season. His potential assists have dropped from 13.1 per 36 minutes last season to 9.1 per 36 minutes this season, so I’m buying the decrease in his assist rate.
Paul is the reason we’ve seen Booker’s assist opportunities decrease as he has averaged 20.3 potential assists per 36 minutes this season. His 17 potential assists per game are tied for second with James Harden and Luka Doncic and trail only Russell Westbrook. Paul has averaged about four minutes less per game than Doncic and about eight minutes less per game than Harden and Westbrook, so we can see how involved Paul is as a playmaker when he’s on the floor. It has translated to a 43.1 percent assist rate so far this season and he has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute. The only negative for Paul is that he’s averaged 30.1 minutes per game and we typically can only count on 31 or 32 minutes even in competitive games. His salary reflects his playing time, however, and he looks like the best value from the Suns.
Deandre Ayton continues to be in tournament consideration because of his upside, but I’m still mildly concerned about his playing time and production. He has only averaged 29.6 minutes per game this season and, even in competitive games, we’ve seen his rotations be a little bit shorter than last season. We could usually count on 34 to 35 minutes from Ayton in competitive games where he wasn’t in foul trouble last season but, so far this season, he’s only topped 31 minutes in a game one time. His usage is also down from 23.7 percent last season to 19 percent this season. Both of these things can, and probably eventually will, change without any notice which is why I’m still interested in tournaments. But they’re worth noting because they make me less confident in rostering Ayton until we actually see those trends change.
Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder have averaged 33.4 and 29.7 minutes per game this season and are relatively inexpensive. Bridges has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute while Crowder has averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute. Neither one stands out as a great value, with the exception of Crowder on FanDuel, but they could be used as a last piece of a lineup if you’re playing a lot of lineups.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Chris Paul ($7,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Chris Paul ($7,300), DeAndre Ayton ($7,200), Jae Crowder ($4,400)
Detroit Pistons
Killian Hayes is out again for Detroit, while Josh Jackson and Derrick Rose are listed as probable. Jackson’s return will push either Delon Wright or Wayne Ellington to the bench. My guess is that Wright will remain in the starting lineup and be on the short-end of the point guard split with Rose, but that’s just a guess. Either way, Wright and Ellington both lose their value with the return of Jackson and Rose.
The Pistons are a really difficult team to trust because they have a bunch of mediocre players taking on bigger roles than they would on most NBA teams. It puts us in a position where we have to make decisions on players who have more opportunities than most other options at their salaries but who are also less talented than most other options at their salaries. That means that I typically end up viewing the Pistons more as tournament options than cash options on most slates.
Jerami Grant leads the team with a 26.5 percent usage rate and he’s actually not seen too much of a drop in efficiency from last season despite taking on a lot more volume. He has a 56.8 percent true shooting rate this season compared to 59.1 percent last season. If he is able to keep scoring at a relatively efficient rate, then he deserves to be priced where he is. His peripherals have been disappointing this season, which is kind of surprising since he’s always been a good source of peripheral stats. Overall, he has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this season in 36.2 minutes per game. There is definitely some sticker shock here, and it will probably take all season for my gut to feel okay about paying $7,000 (or more) for Jerami Grant, but I think it’s a fair price point.
Blake Griffin and Rose are also players we can look to for upside on the Pistons. Griffin has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute with a relatively disappointing 21.0 percent usage rate. He has taken advantage of the lack of ball-handlers on the Pistons, however, contributing an 18.6 percent assist rate. He’s averaged 30.4 minutes per game, but we can expect 32-plus if the game is competitive. Rose leads the team with a 31.4 percent usage rate, and he has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute despite a horrendous 50.3 percent true shooting rate. His true shooting rate last season was 55.5 percent, so we should see him be a little bit more efficient going forward. Rose has only averaged 24.2 minutes per game this season, but that number is deceiving because he only played 11 minutes in his last game before leaving with injury. He hasn’t played less than 23 minutes in any other game this season and has averaged 26.4 minutes per game excluding the game where he was injured.
Jackson should be back for tonight’s game and has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.1 percent usage rate so far this season. Including the preseason, Jackson has played 123 minutes alongside Grant and has a 27 percent usage rate, so I think there is a good chance that Jackson maintains a high usage rate in the starting unit. He’s averaged about 1 fantasy point per minute for his career and I expect to see close to 30 minutes for him tonight.
Mason Plumlee is a somewhat interesting tournament option on DraftKings since we can roster two centers, but it’s close to impossible to trust his playing time right now. Plumlee played 32, 33 and 34 minutes in his first three games of the season. That third game was on December 29th, which is the first game that rookie Isaiah Stewart played. Since then, with Stewart in the rotation, Plumlee has played 25, 30, 25, 20 and 17 minutes. There has been some bad luck mixed in as well with fouls and/or blowouts, but we’re seeing Stewart get more run than Jahlil Okafor was when he was the primary back-up, and Okafor is still stealing a few minutes per game as the third string center. Plumlee has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season so he should easily pay off his salary if we happen to get 30-plus minutes from him, but there is no way to be confident that happens.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jerami Grant ($7,000), Derrick Rose ($5,800), Josh Jackson ($5,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Blake Griffin ($5,500), Josh Jackson ($5,100)
Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics (-5.5): 235
Washington Wizards
Westbrook left the last game early with a dislocated finger, but it appears that he is expected to play tonight. He has played huge minutes so far this season, averaging 37.5 minutes per game. He leads the NBA with 20.2 potential assists per game, which is 3.2 more than the three players who are tied for second place. He is also 14th with 16.2 rebound chances per game, which leads all other guards by a wide margin. Westbrook’s excellent peripherals give him a high floor and high ceiling as his scoring is just a bonus. He is second on the Wizards with a 28.3 percent usage rate and his points per game should increase going forward as he only has a 46.1 percent true shooting rate this season compared to his career average of 52.9 percent. The only negative for Westbrook so far this season is that he is only averaging 14.1 drives per 36 minutes compared to the 20.8 drives per game that he averaged last season. The decrease in drives is probably a reason that his true shooting rate is down as well. Overall, he has averaged 1.41 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Bradley Beal is coming off the best game of his career as he poured in 60 points against the Sixers, with 57 of those points coming in the first three quarters. Beal had a legitimate chance to score 70 points in that game, but he cooled off in the fourth quarter. We obviously shouldn’t expect a repeat performance from Beal, but it did highlight a point that I had made in that day’s Deep Dive article that Beal’s usage is not suffering alongside Westbrook. Beal has now averaged 1.46 DraftKings points per minute with a 36.5 percent usage rate and 19.6 percent assist rate in his six games alongside Westbrook this season. Coach Scott Brooks has been staggering Beal and Westbrook’s minutes, which allows Beal more assist opportunities than he would otherwise have as well. Beal’s salary increased after his last game, which should keep his ownership down tonight. I still don’t think he is overpriced as I thought he was underpriced going into the Philadelphia game, so I like going back to him in tournaments if his ownership is low.
I was optimistic about Rui Hachimura and Davis Bertans before the Philadelphia game and that remains the case despite poor performances. Bertans started the second half and played 33 minutes, giving him two games in a row with more than 30 minutes. Even if he remains on the bench, he is one of the most important pieces of this team and I fully expect him to close most games going forward. Bertans has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season and the addition of Russell Westbrook should lead to more open looks than he got last season. Hachimura only played 24.2 minutes against Philadelphia as the Wizards closed with a three-guard lineup that included Ish Smith over Hachimura. I think that we will see more volatility in Hachimura’s minutes than Bertans’ minutes going forward, but Hachimura still has a path to 30-plus minutes if he is playing well. I think that the absence of Tristan Thompson tonight hurts Hachimura because it makes it more likely that the Celtics close with a small lineup and the Wizards match, but I think there is value at his current price point since his salary is depressed as a result of limited playing time in his first couple of games back from injury.
Thomas Bryant has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute in 29.4 minutes per game this season. He is a good fit with Westbrook as he can run the floor and finish in transition and he’s also capable and stepping out to knock down threes. The issue I have with Bryant right now is his price tag as the center position is deep and there are plenty of underpriced options that we can roster.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook ($10,400), Bradley Beal ($9,700), Davis Bertans ($4,900)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook ($10,700), Bradley Beal ($10,100), Davis Bertans ($5,100)
Boston Celtics
Robert Williams tested positive for COVID, so he is out, and we have several other Celtics in quarantine as well. Thompson is the biggest piece that we are missing tonight, but Grant Williams is also out so the frontcourt will be short-handed. Jeff Teague is listed as questionable and Romeo Langford is also out. Javonte Green isn’t on the injury report and Carsen Edwards is available to play.
Daniel Theis should benefit from the absence of Thompson, Robert Williams and Grant Williams. He has only averaged 21 minutes per game this season, but I expect we see 30-plus tonight from Theis. I think he should also be more productive on a per-minute basis. Only 38 percent of Theis’ field goal attempts this season have come from within five feet of the basket, compared to 57 percent last season. Not surprisingly, Theis has a 57.5 percent true shooting rate this season compared to 63.1 percent last season. He should also see an increase in rebounding opportunities without Thompson on the floor. I expect Theis to produce closer to the 0.94 DraftKings points per minute that he averaged last season than the 0.77 DraftKings points per minute that he has averaged this season under tonight’s conditions.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown both have high ceilings tonight against a Wizards team that, predictably, ranks first in pace and 29th in defensive rating this season. Tatum should also benefit from the absence of Thompson since he is likely to see more rebounding opportunities. He has averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute while Brown has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute. Both have usage rates between 29 and 30 percent, while Tatum has the edge in assist and rebounding rate.
Marcus Smart played 32.2 minutes against Miami in his return from injury and he could see a couple more minutes tonight as a result of Boston being short-handed and Smart’s ability to play multiple positions. He ranks behind Theis, Brown and Tatum for me, but still has upside in this great matchup. He’s averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute so far this season.
Teague is questionable but, if he plays, there is a chance that he joins the starting lineup in place of Thompson. Even if he doesn’t start, I would expect around 24 minutes off the bench which would make him a viable value option in this matchup. Similarly, Payton Pritchard should see mid to upper twenties in minutes tonight as the Celtics need to soak up Thompson’s 23.6 and Williams’ 17.9 minutes per game and they will mostly do so by giving additional run to their guards and wings while using Tatum at the four.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum ($9,200), Jaylen Brown ($8,700), Daniel Theis ($4,300), Jeff Teague/Payton Pritchard (assuming one of them starts $4,400/$4,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum ($9,400), Jaylen Brown ($8,000), Marcus Smart ($5,900), Daniel Theis ($4,300), Jeff Teague/Payton Pritchard ($4,300/$4,500)
Charlotte Hornets at New Orleans Pelicans (-7): 217.5
Charlotte Hornets
LaMelo Ball only played 23.7 minutes in his last game, which is concerning since it was a competitive game and he didn’t close. We had seen Ball close in several blowouts and one competitive game over his previous four games. My expectation is that Ball is in the closing lineup more often than not going forward, but last game was a reminder that the Hornets do still have a crowded backcourt and James Borrego has options late in games so Ball’s playing time may be disappointing some nights. With a rising price tag, that makes Ball a risky option. Still, he has been extremely productive, averaging 1.24 DraftKings points per minute so far in his rookie season.
Terry Rozier and Devonte’ Graham both carry some tournament appeal as well, but they also have significant downsides. One of them will lose minutes whenever Ball plays more, most likely, and Graham’s usage rate is down to 17.4 percent this season. Graham has seen his rotations shortening in recent games as well, before playing about 39 minutes against Atlanta last game. My expectation for Graham and Rozier in any given game is 30 to 32 minutes and it makes it difficult to trust either one given Graham’s lack of scoring and Rozier’s lack of peripherals.
P.J. Washington finally gave us a good game last time out- and it was of course at high ownership after failing at low ownership for a week straight. His salary has now increased, making him a riskier option. He still has upside since he has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season and has the potential to play into the mid-thirties in minutes if he stays out of foul trouble. Typically, I expect 30-32 minutes from Washington, however, which limits him to being a contrarian tournament option assuming that his ownership is low tonight.
Gordon Hayward has been a strong fantasy producer this season with at least 34 minutes played in every competitive game and an average of 1.15 DraftKings points per minute. He’s coming off his best game and that could inflate his ownership tonight at a rising price point. If he’s low owned then I don’t mind him in tournaments, but I think we can find better options tonight.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LaMelo Ball ($6,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Devonte’ Graham ($5,100)
New Orleans Pelicans
Update: Redick is now probable and Melli is available to play.
Nicolo Melli and J.J. Redick are questionable. Melli’s status doesn’t really matter but, if Redick misses the game, it solidifies Josh Hart’s playing time and opens up minutes for Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who played 26.8 minutes against Oklahoma City after Redick’s second quarter injury- including closing over Eric Bledsoe. I would expect 20 to 24 minutes from Alexander-Walker if Redick is out, but that’s enough to make him a viable value option.
Brandon Ingram had another solid game his last time out against Oklahoma City. He took a big step forward last season and has continued to do so this season. Ingram has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute with a team-leading 30.3 percent usage rate and 27.5 percent assist rate. He also leads the team with 34.2 minutes per game this season and he looks like a very strong mid-range forward option.
Zion Williamson has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.3 percent usage rate this season and he’s a little bit less expensive than Ingram. Williamson had a few games where he dealt with foul trouble, but he’s still averaged 31.4 minutes per game this season. I expect 32 to 34 minutes if this game is competitive, which makes him a high-upside option. If you are using Fantasy Cruncher to create your lineups, I recommend either creating groups so that Williamson projects slightly worse in lineups with Ingram, and vice versa, or setting a rule so that any lineups with both of them have someone from Charlotte so that you have a mini game stack in any lineups that feature both of New Orleans’ expensive scorers.
The rest of the Pelicans are less interesting, with the exception of Bledsoe on FanDuel where he is $700 less expensive than DraftKings. Bledsoe, Lonzo Ball and Steven Adams all have the ability to outperform their current price tags, it’s just not the most likely outcome as they take a backseat in scoring to Ingram and Williamson. Ball has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute this season and should play 34-plus minutes if this game is competitive while Adams has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute and Bledsoe has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute. I expect 32 to 34 minutes from Adams if the game is competitive and about 30 minutes for Bledsoe.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Brandon Ingram ($8,500), Zion Williamson ($7,900)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Brandon Ingram ($8,800), Zion Williamson ($7,800), Eric Bledsoe ($5,300)
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Oklahoma City Thunder at New York Knicks (-2.5): 209.5
Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had the game that YouTube chat said would never happen last game as he scored 50.75 DraftKings points on the back of 21 points, nine assists, five rebounds and five steals. The steals are obviously unusual, but the rest of his production is in line with what we can expect in most games. Gilgeous-Alexander is going to be a volatile player this season. He is going to lead the team in usage and assists and play at least 34 or 35 minutes in competitive games so he is going to have big games just based on his opportunity and talent level. He’s also likely to struggle with efficiency and have some poor performances since he doesn’t have much of a supporting cast around him to take defensive attention away from him. The best way to treat players like this is typically to look to roster them when their salary falls and/or they aren’t popular and avoid them when their salaries rises, or they are popular. Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute with a 27 percent usage rate and 33.1 percent assist rate this season and looks fairly priced for a mediocre matchup against the Knicks. Much of my interest in Gilgeous-Alexander will come down to his projected ownership in tournaments.
Darius Bazley had another monster game his last time out as he scored 20 points with 12 rebounds in about 34 minutes against New Orleans. Bazley is seeing a lot more opportunities this season than he did last season and, for the most part, he’s been productive. His usage rate is up from 14.5 percent last season to 19.6 percent this season and his rebounding rate has increased from 12.1 percent to 15.3 percent. He leads Oklahoma City with 13.3 rebound chances per game, which is a little over two more than second place Al Horford. Bazley’s salary is increasing and I don’t think he’s going to consistently produce the games that he has had his last three time out so there is risk, but he’s shown his good games will still outperform his current salary.
Horford and George Hill are both relatively inexpensive and have averaged between 0.90 and 1 DraftKings point per minute this season. They’re viable as last guy in pieces in tournaments, but they aren’t priorities because I can’t expect them to get more than 27 or 28 minutes even if the game is close.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,900)
New York Knicks
Update: Nerlens Noel is probable, which is a downgrade in playing time for Robinson.
Alec Burks, Frank Ntilikina and Obi Toppin are still out. Kevin Knox and Reggie Bullock are probable, and Noel is questionable.
Julius Randle and R.J. Barrett still lead the league in minutes played at 38.4 and 38.8 minutes per game. This immediately makes both of them viable fantasy options, despite their rising price tags. In particular, Randle has been extremely productive and deserves his rising salary strictly based on performance before we even consider that we can count on him to play 38 to 40 minutes. Randle has averaged 19.9 rebound chances per game, seventh in the league, and 12.3 potential assists per game, 18th in the league. For context, his potential assists place him between Ja Morant and John Wall and his rebound chances rank between Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid. He also leads the Knicks with a 28.1 percent usage rate. Randle has plenty of competition at his new price point, but I also think he deserves to be priced where he is. Barrett is less productive on a per-minute basis but has still been relatively productive with 0.88 DraftKings points per minute and a 22.4 percent usage rate to go along with a 13.4 percent assist rate and 10.1 percent rebounding rate.
Elfrid Payton has one of the widest gaps between his floor and ceiling that we will see right now. The Knicks have ball-handlers available behind Payton, so his minutes are no longer guaranteed even if he isn’t playing well. Immanuel Quickley, Austin Rivers and Dennis Smith are all available to take minutes if Tom Thibodeau doesn’t like what he sees. That said, if Payton does play well, Thibodeau will play him huge minutes as we saw last game when Payton led the team with 42.3 minutes played. He has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season so, if he gets full starter minutes, he looks like a good value. We can see anything from 26 to 42 minutes from Payton tonight, mostly depending on how he is playing. That makes him appealing in tournaments, especially if he is low owned, and terrifying in cash games. His FanDuel salary is especially cheap.
Mitchell Robinson is also benefitting from the coaching change as he has averaged 29.6 minutes per game this season compared to 23.2 minutes per game last season. Last game, with Nerlens Noel sidelined, Robinson played 41.4 minutes. Robinson’s per-minute production is down from 1.06 DraftKings points per minute last season to 0.90 points per minute this season, but he makes up for it with increased playing time. Robinson looks much better if Noel sits than if he plays since we can expect more minutes.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle ($9,800), Elfrid Payton ($6,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle ($9,400), Elfrid Payton ($5,500), R.J. Barrett ($6,500)
Brooklyn Nets at Memphis Grizzlies (-1.5): 219
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets will be without Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant tonight, so it should be the Caris LeVert show again.
LeVert played 32.3 minutes against Philadelphia last night and he played about 33 minutes in regulation against this Grizzlies team without Irving or Durant when they played earlier this season. Since the start of last season, LeVert has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute with a 35 percent usage rate and 38.7 percent assist rate in 796 minutes playing without Irving, Durant or Spencer Dinwiddie on the floor. His salary barely moved from last night, so he should be one of the highest owned players on the slate again tonight and for good reason.
Jarrett Allen and DeAndre Jordan split 48 minutes (other than about two minutes of blowout run) at center, as expected with Durant sidelined. Allen has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute in 521 minutes since last season without Irving, Durant or Dinwiddie and he is likely to play about 30 minutes if everything goes according to plan. If something doesn’t go according to plan, like Allen gets in foul trouble, Jordan would be the direct beneficiary and he has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute without those three on the floor since last season. Both of these players have upside, but the price on Jordan is the more appealing of the two even though he will be on the losing end of their timeshare more often than not.
Joe Harris had a monster game in 30 minutes off the bench last night. He has an increased ceiling without Irving or Durant as the Nets will need him to step up as a secondary scorer behind LeVert. He has a 21.5 percent usage rate in 448 minutes without the trio on the floor since last season and has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute. We shouldn’t expect a repeat of last night’s performance, but Harris still has value based on his expected increase in production.
The rest of the Nets’ rotation gets ugly. Some combination of Jeff Green, Taurean Prince, Bruce Brown, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and Chris Chiozza is going to combine for about 110 minutes, and they are all cheap. The problem is that it is close to impossible to confidently guess how those minutes are going to be distributed.
Last night, Green played 28.9 minutes and closed the game. Luwawu-Cabarrot also closed the game and finished at 26.4 minutes played. Prince and Brown both started (as did Green) but didn’t play in the fourth quarter. There are essentially two spots available in the closing lineup for these five players. Barring something weird happening, LeVert, Harris and one of the centers will close alongside two of this group. Based on Brooklyn’s rotations in general this season, Luwawu-Cabarrot is my educated guess at the most likely fourth player and then the fifth player is basically a dart throw. The fact the Grizzlies will most likely close with Brandon Clarke alongside Jonas Valanciunas makes me lean toward Jeff Green but, again, I’m guessing. The point here is that one or two guys from the cheap Brooklyn value will probably have a good game but it’s a volatile situation.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Caris LeVert ($7,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Caris LeVert ($6,800)
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis is on the second leg of a back-to-back and last night, for the second game in a row, only one Memphis player reached 30 minutes played. Two games ago it was Tyus Jones and last night it was Clarke. All of the starters played between 26.8 and 30.2 minutes last night while five players off the bench played between 16.2 and 23.6 minutes. This is a very unappealing rotation for fantasy purposes and it is the second straight game that we’ve seen it.
Memphis’s deep rotation combined with rising prices due to Ja Morant’s injury make it tough to like much of anything from this team. That isn’t to say that none of them can have a good game in a favorable matchup against the Nets, but it is most likely going to involve drastically outproducing their per-minute averages since none of them are likely to play enough minutes to justify their salaries at their normal rates.
Valanciunas is my favorite GPP target of the starters as he has averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute in 526 minutes without either of Morant or Jaren Jackson Jr. on the floor since last season and he is fully capable of justifying his price tag in only 26 to 28 minutes of action.
I think the most appealing place to look on Memphis may be the bench, however. There is almost always risk in looking to back-ups since their minutes can disappear in any given game, but we have De’Anthony Melton at close to minimum salary and he overtook Kyle Anderson for back-up point guard duties last night. Melton has played 16 and 21 minutes in his two games back from injury and I think that him taking over as Jones’ primary back-up last night is a good sign for his fantasy production. The biggest risk here is that Melton played zero minutes alongside Jones so, if Jones plays well and gets back to the 32 minutes that he played two games ago, we are looks at 16 minutes from Melton unless the rotation changes somewhere else. The upside is that Melton is a competent fantasy producer and has averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute this season. Since last season, he has played 447 minutes without Morant or Jackson on the floor and has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute. I’m not telling you that Melton can’t fail in a variety of ways here, but I do think he is underpriced and I’m encouraged by last night’s rotation where he played on the second unit without Kyle Anderson.
Clarke still projects as a decent point-per-dollar option as well since his salary hasn’t increased too quickly since his insertion into the starting lineup. He’s only averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute in 272 minutes alongside Valanciunas without either of Morant or Jackson on the floor since last season but he is cheap enough that can get it done if he plays another 30 minutes.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jonas Valanciunas ($7,200), De’Anthony Melton ($3,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jonas Valanciunas ($6,700), Brandon Clarke ($5,100)
Orlando Magic at Houston Rockets (-5.5): 223
Orlando Magic
The Magic give us one of the top value plays on the slate as Markelle Fultz and Michael Carter-Williams are out, and Evan Fournier remains questionable.
Update: Aaron Gordon is out. His absence opens up a bunch of usage and minutes, so it’s an upgrade in rates for all of the starters. It also should solidify Clark and Bacon’s minutes in addition to Ross’s.
Cole Anthony played 32.1 minutes after Fultz’s first quarter injury and he should be the starting point guard for Orlando going forward with Fultz out for the season. Anthony has played 265 minutes in the NBA so far, including the preseason, and has averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute with a 23.2 percent usage rate and 24 percent assist rate. As usual, we should expect his rates to decrease somewhat playing with the starting unit. In 73 minutes alongside Nikola Vucevic, Anthony has an 18.8 percent usage rate and 17.6 percent assist rate while averaging 0.73 DraftKings points per minute. He also only has a 37.9 percent true shooting rate over that stretch, however, so his per-minute production (and probably usage) will increase as the sample grows.
Fournier’s status mainly affects Dwayne Bacon and Gary Clark. Bacon played 31.5 minutes last game and Clark played 28.4 minutes in a spot start, with most of those coming in the second half as the Magic were short-handed without Fultz and with James Ennis on a minutes limit. Bacon and Clark are both low per-minute producers, but they would have value based on playing time alone if Fournier misses this game. Terrence Ross only played about 21 minutes last game, but we should normally expect about 30 minutes from him which does increase the risk for Bacon and Clark since at least one of them probably will play less than they did last game even if Fournier is out. If Fournier plays, he is an interesting option if he isn’t on a minutes restriction. He will probably take on expanded ball-handling duties with Fultz out and I would expect his minutes to be staggered with Anthony’s.
Vucevic is always a high-upside option who seems to get lost in the shuffle of other expensive players. He has averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute this season and is likely to see an increase in usage and assists with Fultz sidelined.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($9,000), Cole Anthony ($5,000), Dwayne Bacon ($3,900), Gary Clark ($3,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($8,800), Cole Anthony ($5,000), Dwayne Bacon ($3,900)
Houston Rockets
The main injury news here is that Christian Wood is questionable. If he doesn’t play, roster DeMarcus Cousins, who played 23.5 minutes in his absence last game and has averaged 1.58 DraftKings points per minute in 104 minutes including the preseason. If he plays, don’t roster Cousins (outside of potentially in large field GPPs) since we haven’t seen Houston use Cousins alongside Wood for more than a couple of possessions this season.
Harden always has tournament appeal since he is a threat to be the top scorer on any given slate, but it’s tough to prioritize him on this slate since there are so many high-upside options that cost a lot less. Harden has averaged 1.45 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.6 percent usage rate and 46.2 percent assist rate this season. While we’ve seen him average about 1.6 DraftKings points per minute alongside high-usage points guards in the past, I do think the additions of Christian Wood and DeMarcus Cousins are pulling his usage rate down a little bit further and hurting his per-minute production.
Wall played 37.1 minutes in his last game and has now averaged 36 minutes per game through his first four games this season. In the three games that he has played alongside Harden, Wall has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.8 percent usage rate and 26.5 percent assist rate. His salary is slowly increasing, but I still think there is value in 36 minutes of Wall at his price point.
David Nwaba started in place of Danuel House last game and played 37.2 minutes. He started and played 29 minutes in the previous game, so we should expect him to approach 30 minutes tonight with the upside for more. He’s still inexpensive and has averaged 0.67 DraftKings points per minute this season. He isn’t exciting, but he’s similar to Dwayne Bacon and Gary Clark from Orlando.
Wood has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute so far this season and has averaged 35.7 minutes per game. I think the minutes per game will settle into the 30 to 32 minute range now that Cousins is active, but his production has been impressive despite playing with other high-usage players. He isn’t a priority if he plays, but he’s got a high ceiling if you’re looking for Houston exposure and need a center instead of a guard. If he sits, Cousins is still too inexpensive for 24 minutes of action.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: John Wall ($8,000), David Nwaba ($3,700), DeMarcus Cousins ($5,100 if Wood is out)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: John Wall ($8,500), David Nwaba ($3,700), DeMarcus Cousins ($5,300 if Wood is out)
Utah Jazz at Milwaukee Bucks (-5.5): 231.5
Utah Jazz
Joe Ingles is questionable and Derrick Favors is probable. If Ingles sits, we would probably see a bigger role for Jordan Clarkson as well as more minutes for Georges Niang off the bench.
This is a tough spot for Utah, who feel like they’ve played every day this week. In reality, this is a three-in-four against one of the best teams in the league. That said, they’re only five and a half point underdogs and I’m not here to pretend like I’m good at sports betting and that we shouldn’t be treating this game like the line says we should.
Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell are still underpriced for their roles and production, particularly on DraftKings. Gobert has averaged 30.3 minutes per game this season while Mitchell has averaged 33.6 minutes per game and it’s likely that we see 33-plus minutes from Gobert and 35-plus minutes from Mitchell if this game is competitive. Mitchell got off to a slow shooting start this season and it drove his salary down, but he still leads the team with a 31.9 percent usage rate and slightly behind Mike Conley with a 25.0 percent assist rate. Mitchell is averaging the sixth-most pick-and-roll possessions per game this season and the Bucks are usually one of the most efficient teams defending the pick-and-roll. Over the last three seasons, Milwaukee has ranked in the 86th, 72nd and 96th percentiles in points per possession allowed to pick-and-roll ball-handlers. They haven’t been as strong so far this season, however, as they’ve allowed the fourth most points per game and rank in the 41st percentile in efficiency.
Gobert’s rates are slowly moving toward his long-term averages after a hot start to the season, but that doesn’t really matter since his price didn’t increase due to his start to this season. Since the start of last season, Gobert has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute and that gives him plenty of upside at his current salary.
If you think the Bucks will do a good job of slowing down Mitchell since their defenses have typically done a good job against opposing ball-handlers, then Bojan Bogdanovic could play a bigger role than normal offensively. Milwaukee has allowed the ninth most three-point attempts per game this season and the seventh most spot-up points per game. Bogdanovic leads the team with 4.1 spot-up field goal attempts per game.
As I’ve mentioned before, I don’t read too much into play-type stats, but I do like to use them if I need a tiebreaker in a single-entry tournament lineup or something like that.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Rudy Gobert ($7,500), Donovan Mitchell ($7,600)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Donovan Mitchell ($8,000), Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,800)
Milwaukee Bucks
Giannis Antetokounmpo is always one of the top plays on the slate if you can afford him. We’ve seen him playing about 36 minutes in competitive games this season, which increases his ceiling from year’s past where he would often only play 33 minutes regardless of the game being close. Overall, he has averaged 31.2 minutes per game this season including the game where he is limited by a blowout. Antetokounmpo has averaged 1.64 DraftKings points per minute so far this season and 1.86 DraftKings points per minute since last season. His usage rate, rebounding rate and assist rate are all down from last season, which is a concern, but they’re also all still extremely high at 35.0, 18.8 and 25.3 percent. His rebound chances per 36 minutes are down from 23.7 last season to 18.5 this season and his potential assists per 36 minutes are down from 13.6 to 12.2. He still is the best per-minute producer on the slate, but there is reason to expect a little bit less production than we saw last season.
Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are secondary options for me if I can’t afford Giannis. The Bucks’ 118 point total is one of the highest one the slate and most of their scoring is concentrated to these three players so I expect to have one of them in a lot of my lineups. Middleton has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute this season while Holiday has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute.
Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez each played about 28 minutes last game, which was an interesting development since they played several minutes alongside each other. I still wouldn’t want to roster them together, but it does increase the likelihood of either of them doing well if they are going to play more minutes together since it clears a path to more minutes for both. I think this is a game where Lopez could see close to 30 minutes if it’s close as the Bucks can use his size to match up with Gobert. He’s averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute so far this season and remains inexpensive. Portis has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute and is a little bit more expensive, but he has power forward eligibility which makes it easier to get him into lineups.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900), Khris Middleton ($8,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200), Khris Middleton ($7,400)
Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Lakers (-9.5): 223.5
Chicago Bulls
Chicago is still short-handed with Lauri Markkanen, Tomas Satoransky, Chandler Hutchison and Ryan Arcidiacono sidelined as they have been for the past several games.
Zach LaVine and Coby White are the only players on the team averaging over 30 minutes per game as they have played 34.2 and 34.1 minutes, respectively. LaVine has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute with a team-leading 30.9 percent usage rate and 21.1 percent assist rate while White has led the team with a 23.8 percent assist rate and ranks second with a 22.5 percent usage rate. Both players are more affordable on FanDuel, but they look like solid plays on DraftKings as well. If you’re using one of the Lakers’ stars and are concerned about a blowout, pairing them with LaVine or White makes a lot of sense.
Garrett Temple played 32.6 minutes against the Kings in Chicago’s last game as he has stepped into a bigger role due to the absence of so many of Chicago’s wings. Temple has only averaged 0.60 DraftKings points per minute this season, and 0.68 DraftKings points per minute over the last three seasons, but he is another cheap option in the same category as Bacon, Clark and Nwaba. Temple benefitted from Patrick Williams’ first half foul trouble last game, but then he started the second half in place of Williams. If Temple comes off the bench, I expect him to play about 26 minutes but, if he starts, we can increase that to 30 to 32 minutes.
The rest of the Bulls’ main rotation players, Wendell Carter, Otto Porter, Thaddeus Young and Williams are tough to trust since they don’t play more than 30 minutes. Carter and Porter would be my preferred options if I’m trying to use one in tournaments as they are the best per-minute producers, but none of them are priorities on a full slate in a tough matchup against the Lakers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine ($8,600), Garrett Temple ($3,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine ($8,100), Coby White ($6,600), Garrett Temple ($3,500)
Los Angeles Lakers
This is the second half of a back-to-back so we don’t have an injury report yet. I assume that LeBron James will be questionable as always. Anthony Davis was questionable last night but played. There is always risk that one of these two will sit since they played last night but, as of now, I’m assuming they both play. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was also questionable yesterday and missed another game, so I assume he is questionable again tonight. Kyle Kuzma started in his place and played another 30 minutes.
James and Davis are the most interesting pieces here as usual. They should have no trouble against this Chicago team that ranks third in pace and 26th in defensive rating so far this season. I would expect them both to play about 34 minutes if this game is competitive. James has averaged 1.49 DraftKings points per minute this season while Davis has averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute.
Dennis Schroder is the other piece of the Lakers that is of interest to me as he has averaged 30.7 minutes per game this season. Schroder plays whenever James is on the bench, which increases his upside. He is third on the team with a 24 percent usage rate and second with a 21.6 percent assist rate this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James ($10,300), Anthony Davis ($10,100), Dennis Schroder ($6,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James ($10,200), Anthony Davis ($10,400), Dennis Schroder ($5,300), Kyle Kuzma ($4,100 if Caldwell-Pope is out)
Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors (+7): 229.5
Los Angeles Clippers
We don’t have an injury report yet for the Clippers, but they were at full strength last game with Paul George and Marcus Morris both returning to action. I assume that will be the case tonight until we hear otherwise.
Kawhi Leonard is underpriced for a favorable matchup against the Warriors. Leonard has averaged 34.2 minutes per game this season and 1.27 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.6 percent usage rate and 29.8 percent assist rate. He has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute in 43 games with Paul George active since the start of last season. He grades out as one of my top plays on the slate.
George is a high upside option as well, though his salary is a little too close to Leonard’s for me to prioritize him over Leonard (ownership considerations aside). George has been extremely productive this season with an average of 1.33 DraftKings points per minute and a team-leading 31.4 percent usage rate. In the 43 games that he has played alongside Leonard since last season, George has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute.
Serge Ibaka played about 34 minutes against Golden State last game as we got one of the few competitive games that Ibaka has played this season. I’ve mentioned a couple times recently that I think Ibaka’s ceiling is a lot higher than his averages suggest because he’s been involved in so many blowouts so far this season. I think he is the clear number one center in the Clippers’ rotation when he isn’t in foul trouble and he has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season. There is enough volatility that I don’t really want to look to him in cash games, but I think he makes for a good tournament option as long as his ownership is relatively low.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard ($9,300), Paul George ($9,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard ($9,600), Paul George ($8,800)
Golden State Warriors
Stephen Curry is questionable but expected to play. Assuming he plays, he is one of the highest upside plays on the slate as usual. He enters tonight’s game with a 32.2 percent usage rate and has averaged 1.45 DraftKings points per minute. He has a tough matchup against the Clippers which, combined with an increasing salary, makes him a little bit less appealing but he’s still a strong option.
Draymond Green is not on the injury report and played 31 minutes last game. He has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute through his first 98 minutes this season and 1.02 DraftKings points per minute in 969 minutes alongside Curry without Durant since the start of the 2018 season.
Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre are viable tournament options as Wiggins should play 34-plus minutes if the game is competitive and averages about a fantasy point per minute. Oubre is priced to his floor as he has started out the season in a massive shooting slump and it has also led to inconsistent minutes. Whenever we get a game where his shot is falling he is going to easily outperform his salary. That said, the matchup and the number of other options on this slate make them both secondary options for me.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($10,000), Draymond Green ($5,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($9,700), Draymond Green ($5,100)
Toronto Raptors at Sacramento Kings (+5): 225
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are efficiently priced with their team fully healthy. We can look to any of the main three pieces in tournaments here in what should be a high-scoring game. Fred VanVleet has been the most productive so far this season, averaging 1.17 DraftKings points per minute in 35.6 minutes per game. Kyle Lowry leads the team with 36.9 minutes per game and has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute, while Pascal Siakam has averaged 35.4 minutes per game and 1.06 DraftKings points per minute.
Toronto used a three-center rotation against the Suns, which makes using any of the centers risky. That said, I’m still interested in Chris Boucher tonight. Toronto’s last game was against Phoenix and a more traditional center in Ayton. Tonight, they’ll face the Kings who use an undersized center in Richaun Holmes along with Marvin Bagley and Nemanja Bjelica. The Kings also have Hassan Whiteside, but he doesn’t consistently play. I think there is a good chance that the Raptors don’t use Len tonight and we get 24-plus minutes of Boucher, who has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute this season, against Sacramento’s small frontcourt. He looks much better on DraftKings at $5,000 than on FanDuel at $6,200.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Fred VanVleet ($8,100), Pascal Siakam ($7,700), Kyle Lowry ($7,900), Chris Boucher ($5,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Fred VanVleet ($7,800), Pascal Siakam ($8,000), Kyle Lowry ($7,700)
Sacramento Kings
De’Aaron Fox left the last game early and is questionable tonight. Tyrese Haliburton started the second half with Fox injured and would be a strong value tonight if Fox is out. Cory Joseph would also see more minutes while Buddy Hield and Bagley would see more usage.
If Fox plays, he becomes an appealing tournament option since his ownership should be virtually non-existent. He has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute this season and, if healthy, should play 34-plus minutes as long as this game is competitive.
Hield only has a 19.2 percent usage rate this season but, since the start of last season, he has a 27.3 percent usage rate without Fox on the floor. He’s still only averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over that time since he isn’t a creator and is more efficient alongside a good point guard, but his ceiling increases drastically without Fox.
Bagley played 29.1 minutes last game, though he still didn’t close in a game that he was playing extremely well. The fact he didn’t close makes it tough to see him getting more than 30 minutes, but he reminded us that he has massive upside even in fewer minutes than most starters. Overall, he’s averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute this season and he’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute without Fox on the floor since last season.
Holmes got back to about 30 minutes last game, making it four of his last five games that he’s played 30 minutes or more. The problem with Holmes is that his salary is elevated and he’s only center eligible so the opportunity cost is high. He has been productive this season, though, with 1.05 DraftKings points per minute.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox (Questionable- $8,300), Tyrese Haliburton ($5,400 if Fox sits)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox ($7,800), Buddy Hield ($5,200- better if Fox sits)
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