This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA daily fantasy picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
As always, if you have any questions after reading the article, feel free to DM me in Slack.
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | June 15
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Studs
Kevin Durant looked like he was going to be the lone superstar still available for the Nets, but now it appears that James Harden will be active as well. We’ll have to wait for more news on whether or not Harden’s playing time is expected to be restricted, but his return is a negative for Durant compared to if he wasn’t playing at all. Durant only played three games without Kyrie Irving and with Harden this season, but he was productive with 1.48 DraftKings points per minute on the back of a 32.6 percent usage rate and 26.2 percent assist rate. In 427 total minutes without Irving on the floor this season, Durant has averaged 1.58 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.2 percent usage rate and 31.3 percent assist rate. Harden has shared the floor with Durant for 108 of those minutes and Durant has produced 1.40 DraftKings points per minute with a 32 percent usage rate and 18.6 percent assist rate. I expect Durant and Harden to have their minutes staggered. If both were to play 40 minutes, we would expect about 20 percent of Durant’s minutes to be without Harden on the floor. Of course, if Harden is limited, that rate increases.
James Harden has gone from “out” to “doubtful” to “questionable but expected to play” since last night. It remains to be seen if he will be limited or not since he hasn’t played a full game since June 1st. My expectation is that there won’t be a set limit on Harden’s minutes since this is a game that the Nets need to win, but he carries plenty of risk since his rotations could be slightly shorter and there is plenty of re-injury risk. He has produced 1.71 DraftKings points per minute in 660 minutes without Irving on the floor this season, including 1.50 DraftKings points per minute in 108 minutes alongside Durant without Irving. The ceiling is extremely high, as he would project as the top play on the slate if he didn’t have questions about his health. Given the health concerns, he ranks behind Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo but pay attention to his ownership because he obviously can be a tournament winning play.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute through the first four games of the series against the Nets. He has a massive 37.2 percent usage rate and has averaged 36.8 minutes per game, so there is definitely room for more production. One spot where Giannis has struggled is with assists, as he has just a 19.4 percent assist rate and has averaged 3.3 assists per game. During the regular season, he had a 28.7 percent assist rate and averaged 5.9 assists per game. We saw a positive development in the most recent game as Antetokounmpo had 11.3 potential assists per 36 minutes compared to 6 potential assists per 36 minutes during the first three games of the series. Antetokounmpo averaged 12.4 potential assists per 36 minutes during the regular season, so hopefully he continues to play like he did last game, and his assist numbers increase. Giannis is currently the No. 1 projected player in the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections at 62.76 points — over 10 points more than the next-closest player.
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Mid-Range
Khris Middleton started the playoffs slowly as he struggled with his shot, but he has played well recently with 56.75 and 44 DraftKings points in his last two games. His rates have been strong all postseason long, so it was only a matter of time until his production improved. Through the first four games against the Nets, Middleton has produced 1.05 DraftKings points per minute and averaged 38.7 minutes per game with a 28.5 percent usage rate.
Jrue Holiday has really struggled from a DFS perspective so far in this series. He has averaged just 0.74 DraftKings points per minute, though he has also averaged 38.4 minutes per game which keeps his value from falling too much. There is reason to be optimistic about Holiday’s outlook, however, because his rates aren’t much lower than they were during the regular season. In the four games against Brooklyn, Holiday has an 18.9 percent usage rate and 22.8 percent assist rate. In 50 regular season games with Antetokounmpo and Middleton active, Holiday had a 21.3 percent usage rate and 25 percent assist rate while averaging 1.12 DraftKings points per minute. While his rates are lower against Brooklyn, they aren’t so much lower that we would expect his fantasy production to drop by about 33 percent. One glaring difference is that Holiday shot 50.1 percent from the field, and 37.3 percent from three, during the regular season. Against Brooklyn, he has shot just 39 percent from the field and 30 percent from three. A general rule of thumb in DFS is to roster players who have performed poorly recently because of poor shooting and be wary of players who have performed poorly recently because of a substantial decrease in rates. Holiday is the former and still projects as the No. 2 overall value play in the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections tonight despite his recent struggles.
Brook Lopez played 32.8 minutes last game and lost about three minutes to garbage time. In this series, he has averaged 30.1 minutes per game and 0.90 DraftKings points per minute. He has a relatively low floor thanks to a 13.7 percent usage rate in the series, but he has also contributed a 13.8 percent rebounding rate and 2.8 blocks/steals per game.
Value
P.J. Tucker had a strong performance last game after struggling through the first three games of the series. Anyone who has played DFS for a considerable period of time knows what to expect from Tucker. He is going to play defense, which doesn’t produce fantasy points, and he is going to stand in the corner and shoot threes if someone passes him the ball. He has averaged 0.48 DraftKings points per minute and 28 minutes per game in this series and he produced 0.44 DraftKings points per minute in 20 games with Milwaukee during the regular season. There is no reason to actually have confidence in Tucker, but value is difficult to come by on tonight’s slate and we can at least count on him for around 30 minutes.
Pat Connaughton had a good DFS game his last time out, but there are reasons to be cautious tonight. First, while he had 27.5 DraftKings points, he only played about 20 minutes outside of garbage time. Second, his stats were boosted by four steals and two blocks, which is just not something that we can count on happening again anytime soon. Third, the 20 non-garbage time minutes was the most that he has played in this series so there is no guarantee that he reaches that number again. For the season, Connaughton has produced 0.75 DraftKings points per minute. As is the case with Tucker, Connaughton is in play more because of the lack of strong alternatives than because we should have confidence in him.
Jeff Green looks like the best value option as he played 26.6 minutes last game despite being on a “minutes restriction”. Green started the second half in place of Bruce Brown and there is a good chance he is in the starting lineup tonight. Green started 38 games during the regular season and averaged 0.70 DraftKings points per minute and 30 minutes per game. He doesn’t do any one thing at a high level when he is on the floor, but he is a better per-minute fantasy point producer than any of the other inexpensive options who have a chance to approach 30 minutes of action.
Bryn Forbes has only played 15 and 13 minutes in his last two games. He is worth a speculative look in tournaments, however, because it is possible that he carves out more minutes if his shot is falling. We saw Forbes have a couple of very good offensive games in the first round against Miami, and I think that if he is shooting well tonight he could certainly steal minutes from Connaughton and/or Tucker (especially if the Bucks are trailing and need scoring more than they need defense). On average, I expect that we get about 16 minutes from Forbes but there is a path to 20 to 22 minutes if he is shooting well. He also serves as leverage against Connaughton if people are going to chase his performance from the last game.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”06/15/2021″ team=”bucks”]
Bobby Portis has played 12 minutes in each of the last two games after playing 17 minutes in each of the first two games. Portis is primarily being used as Lopez’s back-up, which makes it difficult for him to get enough playing time to be a strong DFS option. Ideally, from a DFS standpoint, we want Portis to also play minutes alongside Lopez which hasn’t been the case for most of this series. Portis does have appeal, however, because he is the best per-minute fantasy producer out of the inexpensive options. Portis averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute in the regular season and, although he has produced only 0.76 DraftKings points per minute so far against Brooklyn, we can expect to see him produce at a high rate when he is on the floor. With many cheap options, like Forbes, you not only need to get lucky with their playing time, but he also needs to produce at an above-average rate. Portis is inexpensive enough and produces at a high-enough rate that you only need to get lucky with his playing time.
Nicolas Claxton will probably be one of the most popular value options tonight as he is the least expensive rotation player on DraftKings. Claxton has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute and 14.8 minutes per game through the first four games of this series. His rotation last game is either concerning or encouraging depending on how you want to look at it. Claxton played just three minutes and four seconds in the first half, which obviously gives us an idea that his floor could be six or seven minutes if things don’t break his way. He did pick up two fouls in those three minutes, however, which could be why he didn’t play more minutes. In the second half, he played just one minute and 19 seconds before heading back to the bench. He quickly returned, however, and played the final 57 seconds of the third quarter and then the first seven minutes and 31 seconds of the fourth quarter. He played about 13 minutes total, which isn’t far off from his series average, but the different rotations show us that his floor tonight is probably six or seven minutes and his (realistic) ceiling is probably around 18 minutes depending on game flow and how he is playing. With his minutes projection at about 16, Claxton is one of the Top 5 value options, according to our daily fantasy basketball projections.
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