This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and myself from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
If you have any questions after reading the article, always feel free to DM me in Slack.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Jan. 15
Dallas Mavericks at Milwaukee Bucks (-7.5): 228
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas is short-handed again tonight with Jalen Brunson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell and Josh Richardson sidelined. Kristaps Porzingis is probable after starting and playing 21 minutes against the Hornets on Wednesday.
Luka Doncic had a monster game against Charlotte and he’ll need to have a big game again tonight if the Mavericks are going to hang with the Bucks. Doncic actually averaged more fantasy points per minute in games that Porzingis played last season than games that he didn’t so I don’t expect his return to hurt Doncic. He has averaged 1.62 DraftKings points per minute so far this season.
Most of the rest of the Mavericks’ players are correctly priced since we have seen them play short-handed for a couple of games now. Willie Cauley-Stein still has some value as he played 29.8 minutes against Charlotte and is likely to approach 30 minutes again tonight without Kleber or Powell. He has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute this season. James Johnson is a reasonable value as well since he can play multiple positions and contribute in every stat category. He has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season and should play about 26 minutes tonight.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic ($11,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic ($11,600)
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are at full strength again tonight against the Mavericks. As usual, Giannis Antetokounmpo is the first place to look on the Bucks as he has averaged 1.63 DraftKings points per minute this season despite decreases in his usage, rebounding and assist rates from last season. He is similarly priced to Doncic and offers the same ceiling, though he is less likely to reach it since his team is at full strength.
Khris Middleton remains the second option in the Bucks’ offense. He has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 25.1 percent usage rate, 25.8 percent assist rate and 10.6 percent rebounding rate. He is a better option on FanDuel than DraftKings since he is $800 less expensive.
Jrue Holiday, Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez are all options that we can look to if we’re playing multiple lineups in large field tournaments, but they rank behind Antetokounmpo and Middleton in terms of priority from the Bucks. Holiday has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this season but the guard positions are always loaded and we can find players that produce at a higher rate and/or play more minutes. Lopez is inexpensive but has only averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute this season and there is a high opportunity cost at the center position. Portis is a strong per-minute producer with 1.09 DraftKings points per minute this season, but his playing time is too volatile to consider him a primary option at his price point.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300), Khris Middleton ($7,400)
Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics (-3): 213
Orlando Magic
Orlando is still without Evan Fournier and Michael Carter-Williams, in addition to Markelle Fultz, Jonathan Isaac, Mohamed Bamba, Al-Farouq Aminu and Chuma Okeke.
While the Magic are short-handed, this has been the case for several games so pricing as mostly adjusted. The two players that I’m most interested in from the Magic are Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon. Vucevic remains the number one option in this offense and he contributes points, rebounds and assists. He has averaged 1.44 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.4 percent usage rate, 19.0 percent rebounding rate and 19.5 percent assist rate this season. Vucevic has averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.0 percent usage rate in 348 minutes without Fournier or Fultz on the floor since the start of last season as well.
Gordon started the season out on a minutes restriction but it has since been lifted. He played 35.2 minutes against Milwaukee in his last game, despite losing about three minutes to a blowout, and 35.5 minutes against Dallas in the game before that. Gordon has a 24.1 percent usage rate, 15.9 percent assist rate and 13.4 percent rebounding rate this season. He has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute while contributing in every category.
Cole Anthony and Terrence Ross are favorably priced on FanDuel at $4,500 and $5,100. Anthony has struggled since joining the starting lineup, producing only 0.66 FanDuel points per minute. He has a 25.0 percent usage rate in those starts, however, so his per-minute production is likely to improve going forward. He has also averaged 27.8 minutes per game. Ross is second on Orlando with a 24.4 percent usage rate this season. He’s a scoring dependent player, but he will typically close out competitive games and he is likely to play about 30 minutes tonight. Ross has averaged 0.91 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($9,000), Aaron Gordon ($7,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($9,400), Aaron Gordon ($6,500), Cole Anthony ($4,500)
Boston Celtics
We are waiting on a bunch of news for Boston, so it’s difficult to break this team down with much confidence right now. We do know that Jayson Tatum, Carsen Edwards, Romeo Langford, Kemba Walker and Robert Williams are out. Jaylen Brown, Javonte Green, Daniel Theis and Semi Ojeleye are questionable.
Brown has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.0 percent usage rate in 259 minutes without Tatum, Walker or Gordon Hayward on the floor since the start of last season. While the per-minute production is actually lower than the 1.27 DraftKings points per minute that he has averaged this season, the usage rate is a couple points higher and his rebounding and assist rates are slightly higher as well. At the very least, Brown has a higher ceiling and, most likely, his per-minute production will increase over a larger sample without those players on the floor.
Marcus Smart is expensive on DraftKings but he is more favorably priced on FanDuel. Heh as averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute in 196 minutes without Tatum, Walker or Hayward on the floor since last season and he should play big minutes tonight with Boston short-handed. If Brown sits as well, Smart’s per-minute production should increase.
Tristan Thompson hasn’t played more than 27 minutes in a game yet this season, but he’ll be needed to play big minutes tonight against Vucevic if Theis is out. The only centers available for Boston, in that case, would be Thompson and Tacko Fall, who is still too raw to be relied on against Vucevic. Thompson has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season and 0.86 DraftKings points per minute for his career.
Payton Pritchard and Jeff Teague will need to play more minutes than usual if Brown misses this game as well. I expect Pritchard to play 26 to 28 minutes and Teague to play 20 to 24 minutes if Brown is active, but an additional 36-plus minutes will open up if he misses the game. Pritchard has averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute this season while Teague has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jaylen Brown ($8,900 if active), Tristan Thompson ($4,800 if Theis is out)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jaylen Brown ($9,000 if active), Marcus Smart ($6,200 better if Brown sits), Tristan Thompson ($4,400 if Theis is out)
New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers (+2): 197
New York Knicks
Reggie Bullock is probable, which should push Austin Rivers back to the bench. Alec Burks is doubtful and Frank Ntilikina remains out.
The Knicks are getting healthier, which means that we could see playing time start to decrease for the starters who have been playing huge minutes this season. On the other hand, we may not see playing time decrease because Tom Thibodeau typically looks to play his starters for as many minutes as humanly possible whenever he can. Taj Gibson and Obi Toppin were active last game, but combined to play one minute as Julius Randle played another 40.3 minutes, R.J. Barrett played 38.1 minutes and Mitchell Robinson played 33.2 minutes. I’m going to treat the Knicks’ starters like they will continue to play heavy minutes, but there is at least a little bit lower floor now that the Knicks have more bodies available.
Randle remains reasonably priced for a player who is averaging 1.25 DraftKings points per minute and 37.4 minutes per game this season. This game has the lowest total on the slate and the Cavs have been the fourth-slowest team in the league this season while allowing the third-fewest points per 100 possessions, so I don’t think Randle is a priority tonight. That said, he has plenty of upside if he is low-owned in tournaments.
Pricing is up across the board for the rest of the Knicks on DraftKings, but we can still look to them on FanDuel as secondary options. Barrett has averaged 0.84 FanDuel points per minute in 37.9 minutes per game this season and is a small forward, which increases his relative value. Elfrid Payton has averaged 0.87 FanDuel points per minute in 29.9 minutes per game. His playing time is much less secure than Randle’s or Barrett’s, but he is a volatile player who is priced more to his floor or median projection on FanDuel than his ceiling.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle ($9,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle ($9,100)
Cleveland Cavaliers
I’m not entirely sure who is active for Cleveland tonight. What I know for sure is that Andre Drummond is probable. Matthew Dellavedova, Darius Garland, Kevin Love, Kevin Porter Jr., Collin Sexton and Dylan Windler are out. The part that I’m not sure about is whether or not Jarrett Allen and Taurean Prince are available. They aren’t listed on the injury report, which would suggest that they’re available to play, but it’s been reported that James Harden can’t practice with the Nets today because the trade isn’t official yet. If that is the case, I don’t know why Allen and Prince would be available for Cleveland.
If they are available, it keeps me from being interested in much of anything from Cleveland. Damyean Dotson and Cedi Osman have some value because the Cavs waived Yogi Ferrell so there are about 20 minutes of ball-handling that need to be filled without him. Neither player looks like a great value in the context of the full slate, but we should get at least 35 or 36 minutes from both players. Osman has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute in 35 minutes per game without Sexton this season while Dotson has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute in 36 minutes per game.
If Allen is active, it limits my interest in Drummond since it seems likely that he would play fewer minutes in a timeshare with Allen than he has played in a timeshare with JaVale McGee. If Allen is inactive, however, Drummond is my favorite play from Cleveland. Drummond has played at least 34 minutes in four of his last five games and has averaged 1.45 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond ($9,300 if Allen is inactive)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond ($9,800 if Allen is inactive), Cedi Osman ($5,100), Damyean Dotson ($5,000)
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Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves (-1.5): 224.5
Memphis Grizzlies
Jaren Jackson Jr. remains out for Memphis, but Ja Morant is questionable. If Morant returns, I expect that he will be limited, making him a risky option for DFS. He would move Tyus Jones back to the bench, however, which would negatively impact Kyle Anderson since Anderson has gained value as a ball-handler with the second unit in Morant’s absence. It would also lower the usage and assist rates for all of the starters during whatever minutes Morant is on the floor.
This is a favorable matchup for Memphis as the Timberwolves rank 28th in defensive rating and ninth in pace this season. While none of the Grizzlies grade out as the top point-per-dollar plays at their positions, I like attacking this team at low ownership in tournaments. Jonas Valanciunas stands out as the top option from Memphis as he played about 30 minutes against the Timberwolves last time out. Gorgui Dieng is no longer the back-up center as he ceded those duties to Xavier Tillman. It seems that Valanciunas has a little bit longer leash as a result and I feel slightly more confident in him getting 28 to 30 minutes than I did when Dieng was his back-up. Valanciunas has averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute in 69 games played with Morant since the start of last season and 1.29 DraftKings points per minute in 12 games played without him.
Brandon Clarke has averaged 30.8 minutes per game since moving into the starting lineup seven games ago. He has averaged just shy of 1 fantasy point per minute over that stretch. His salary is rising on DraftKings, but he is still a strong value on FanDuel.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jonas Valanciunas ($7,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jonas Valanciunas ($7,000), Brandon Clarke ($5,600)
Minnesota Timberwolves
Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Okogie are probable tonight. Ricky Rubio, Jake Layman and Juancho Hernangomez are out.
Towns has averaged 1.53 DraftKings points per minute so far this season and he played 34.4 minutes last game after the Timberwolves announced before the game that his playing time wouldn’t be limited. He is a strong pay-up option at center tonight.
Layman didn’t play last game, but Hernangomez played 29 minutes and Rubio played 24.5 minutes. Their absences will open up additional playing time, most likely for Jarrett Culver, Anthony Edwards and Jarred Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt has earned more playing time recently and he was Hernangomez’s direct back-up last game. Culver only played 10.1 minutes last game but had been starting when Okogie was out. I think that one of Culver or Vanderbilt will replace Hernangomez in the starting lineup. Whichever one starts looks like a decent value option as Culver has averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute and Vanderbilt has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute this season. I expect the starter to play 26 to 28 minutes and whichever one doesn’t start to play 20 to 22 minutes off the bench.
Okogie played 28 minutes last game and could pick up a couple more minutes tonight with Hernangomez and Rubio out. He has averaged 0.75 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season and projects as a reasonable point-per-dollar value.
D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley are the highest upside plays from Minnesota besides Towns. Their expected production takes a hit with Towns’ return to the lineup and the result is that they are slightly overpriced since they played most of the season to this point without Towns. Being overpriced should keep their ownership down in tournaments, so they are viable contrarian options given their high ceilings.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,900)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,800)
Chicago Bulls at Oklahoma City Thunder (+1.5): 224
Chicago Bulls
Lauri Markkanen is no longer on the injury report for Chicago. They will be without Tomas Satoransky, Luke Kornet, Chandler Hutchison and Devon Dotson. Garrett Temple is questionable.
Zach LaVine is very expensive now as his salary has finally caught up to his production this season. LaVine has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute this season in 35.2 minutes per game. We are paying for LaVine’s ceiling at this point, but it is a favorable matchup against Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 14th in pace and 19th in defensive rating this season while allowing the third-most pick-and-roll possessions per game and ranking in the 55th percentile in defensive efficiency against pick-and-roll ball-handlers. LaVine leads the league in pick-and-roll possessions per game and pick-and-roll field goal attempts per game and ranks in the 75th percentile in efficiency.
Coby White is the only other player on the Bulls who has averaged over 30 minutes per game this season with 34.8 minutes per game. His salary has increased as well, and he has only averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute with a 21.8 percent usage rate this season. If you are looking to roster White, he is more favorably priced on FanDuel.
Markkanen’s return limits my interest in anything else from the Bulls since their prices have increased and now there are fewer minutes and shot attempts to go around.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine ($9,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine ($9,000), Coby White ($6,400)
Oklahoma City Thunder
Al Horford sat out last game for rest but he should be back tonight. Darius Bazley left Oklahoma City’s last game early and he is listed as questionable tonight. If he sits, my guess is that Hamidou Diallo joins the starting lineup as he was the immediate replacement for Bazley after his third-quarter injury and he has played well for the Thunder this season.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has had back-to-back disappointing games after scoring at least 50 DraftKings points in three straight games and that type of volatility is exactly what we should expect from him this season. He leads the team in usage rate, assist rate and fantasy points per minute this season. He has averaged 33 minutes per game, which also leads the team and nobody else on the Thunder has played more than 30 minutes per game this season. The Bulls have been the second worst defensive team this season and have played at the second fastest pace. This looks like a great bounce-back spot for Gilgeous-Alexander.
Bazley is second on the team with 29.8 minutes per game this season and he has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute while leading the team with a 13.8 percent rebounding rate. Bazley has upside at his price point tonight as he should benefit from the extra possessions and rebounding opportunities that a matchup against the Bulls will allow. If he sits, Diallo becomes a value option if he starts. He has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute this season. I think his per-minute production is unsustainable because he is shooting about 10 points higher than his career true shooting rate, but he still projects as a decent value if we assume his true point-per-minute average is between last year’s 0.82 points per minute and this season’s production and that he will play about 30 minutes if he starts.
George Hill is only averaging 25.5 minutes per game this season, but we can usually count on a couple extra minutes if the game is competitive. He has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute this season and is inexpensive for a favorable matchup against the Bulls. There is also a chance that he is a small beneficiary if Bazley sits since Diallo is his primary back-up and would probably be forced into soaking up a lot of Bazley’s playing time.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,700), George Hill ($4,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,200), George Hill ($4,500)
Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz (-6): 227.5
Atlanta Hawks
Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kris Dunn and Danilo Gallinari remain out for the Hawks. Rajon Rondo is questionable.
Trae Young is the starting point for Atlanta, as usual. He is at his cheapest price point of the season and I’m not entirely sure why. He had a couple of disappointing games against the Hornets, in a matchup that we expected could give him trouble but followed it up with 45.25 DraftKings points in 25 minutes of a blowout win against Philadelphia last game. Young has averaged 33 minutes per game for the season and he usually plays a couple more minutes in competitive games. Utah is in the bottom third of the league in pace and the top third in defensive rating so far this season, so it doesn’t stand out as a great matchup, but Young is so involved as a scorer and facilitator that I don’t find the matchup overly concerning. Utah ranks in the 86th percentile in defensive efficiency against pick-and-roll ball-handlers but, unlike the Hornets, they have allowed the most pick-and-roll possessions and second-most field goal attempts per game to pick-and-roll ball-handlers this season. Young ranks in the 79th percentile in points per possession in the pick-and-roll this season and I’m typically more concerned about the matchup against a team that will limit his pick-and-roll possessions than against a team that encourages him to operate in the pick-and-roll and thinks they’ll be able to defend him.
Clint Capela and John Collins are the other two pieces from Atlanta that I’m usually interested in. Capela has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute this season but hasn’t played more than 31 minutes in a game. I’m encouraged by his rotation last game, however, as he played about 17 first half minutes and appears to have lost about seven minutes to a blowout. He finished the game with 26.4 minutes played. If he is going to start playing 33 or 34 minutes in competitive games, then he is still underpriced — especially on FanDuel. Collins has averaged 28.1 minutes per game this season, but his playing time has trended up in competitive games recently. He didn’t get back-up center minutes against Philadelphia last game, which is something that I always want Collins to be getting if I roster him. I think it’s likely that he gets them tonight against Utah, however, as Utah’s back-up center is Derrick Favors and he is an easier matchup for Collins than Dwight Howard was last game. He is also more favorably priced on FanDuel.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young ($8,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young ($8,800), Clint Capela ($6,400), John Collins ($6,800)
Utah Jazz
Joe Ingles is out, and Favors is probable.
Donovan Mitchell leads Utah with 33.5 minutes per game this season and a 31.9 percent usage rate. He is also second on the team with a 24.5 percent assist rate. Atlanta has played at the 11th fastest pace this season, but they’ve actually been a solid team defensively. They are 11th in defensive rating but they also rank in the 96th percentile in points per possession allowed to pick-and-roll ball-handlers. Mitchell is averaging the ninth-most pick-and-roll possessions per game this season despite ranking in the 30th percentile in efficiency. I think this is a more difficult matchup than it seems at first glance and Mitchell is only a secondary option for me.
Rudy Gobert has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute and 30.4 minutes per game this season. The center position is deep, as usual, so it’s difficult to make Gobert a priority. He is a high upside option in tournaments, however, assuming that he is available at relatively low ownership.
Jordan Clarkson has been excellent in both games without Ingles so far. He is up to $6,100 on DraftKings but is only $5,200 on FanDuel. Clarkson has averaged 31.4 minutes per game in the two games without Ingles but lost several minutes to a blowout in the second game. He has a 27.6 percent usage rate and has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute overall this season.
Bojan Bogdanovic is a strong value on FanDuel where he is priced for the 0.64 FanDuel points per minute that he has averaged this season. He has shot extremely poorly this year, and it’s only a matter of time before it turns around as his true shooting rate is about nine points lower than his career average.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Rudy Gobert ($7,800), Jordan Clarkson ($6,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Rudy Gobert ($8,000), Jordan Clarkson ($5,200), Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,300)
New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers (-9): 220
New Orleans Pelicans
Lonzo Ball is out and Eric Bledsoe is questionable after missing New Orleans’ last game. Zion Williamson is no longer on the injury report. Nickeil Alexander-Walker played 33.2 minutes with Ball and Bledsoe out last game and should see big minutes again tonight if that is the case.
Bledsoe is a strong mid-range play if he is available tonight as he would probably play 33 to 34 minutes with Ball sidelined. Bledsoe averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute with Giannis and Middleton active last season, and I think we would see similar production if he is the point guard alongside Ingram and Williamson tonight.
Brandon Ingram was disappointing last game against the Clippers, but I think the return of Williamson and, potentially Bledsoe, can help him tonight. Ingram will have plenty of usage and ball-handling responsibilities even if those players are active, but it will be more difficult for the Lakers to focus solely on limiting his production. Overall this season, Ingram has averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute as he leads the team with a 26.2 percent assist rate and he is second with a 29.4 percent usage rate.
Williamson has been relatively disappointing from a DFS standpoint this season, but he has still averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute and 31.8 points per minute. He looks like a secondary forward option tonight against a tough Lakers team. Ingram is my preferred option, but Williamson isn’t a bad consolation prize if you can’t quite afford Ingram.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Brandon Ingram ($8,600), Eric Bledsoe ($5,700 if active), Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4,400 if Bledsoe is out)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Brandon Ingram ($8,800), Eric Bledsoe ($5,300 if active), Josh Hart ($4,400 if Bledsoe is out)
Los Angeles Lakers
Anthony Davis will be available tonight and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is probable. Wesley Matthews is questionable after missing the last couple of games, but his availability doesn’t affect much. LeBron James is questionable which, I assume, means he will play.
James and Davis are the two most interesting pieces here, as always. James has averaged 1.53 DraftKings points per minute in 11 games played with Davis this season while Davis has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute in those games. They have averaged nearly identical minutes this season with James playing 31.9 minutes per game and Davis played 31.8 minutes per game.
If I’m looking elsewhere on the Lakers, Dennis Schroder is my next target as he has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute and 30.9 minutes per game this season. He is the only player on the Lakers other than Davis and James that has averaged more than 25 minutes per game. His salary is where it should be for his median projection, however, so he isn’t anything more than a secondary GPP option.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James ($9,700), Anthony Davis ($9,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James ($9,900), Anthony Davis ($9,800)
Los Angeles Clippers at Sacramento Kings (+7): 227.5
Los Angeles Clippers
Patrick Beverley and Lou Williams are both questionable tonight. If one or both of them sit, it should open up more playing time for Luke Kennard and Marcus Morris. It’s unlikely that either of them would become strong values on this slate, however.
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are the main pieces here and they get a great matchup against the Kings, who have the worst defensive rating by more than two points per 100 possessions this season. Leonard has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute in 35.1 minutes per game this season while George has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute in the same 35.1 minutes per game. I expect that Leonard becomes the better per-minute producer going forward based on past production, but the point remains that they are both strong plays tonight against the Kings.
In addition to being an overall terrible defense, the Kings have also been bad at defending the paint. Serge Ibaka has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season. It’s difficult to trust him to play more than 26 minutes and it’s tough to use him at center but, if you’re looking for an under the radar play from the Clippers I would look to the center position.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard ($9,600), Paul George ($9,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard ($9,600), Paul George ($8,800), Patrick Beverley ($4,000 if active and Lou Williams is inactive)
Sacramento Kings
While the Clippers have been surprisingly bad defensively this season, allowing the fifth most points per 100 possessions, it’s tough to love much from the Kings as they are mostly priced efficiently since their rotation players are fully healthy.
The exception is De’Aaron Fox. Fox’s salary fell while he was injured and hasn’t fully recovered despite playing 38 and 36 minutes in his last two games. He is quickly getting more expensive on DraftKings, but still has upside at $8,100, but he is clearly underpriced on FanDuel at only $7,300. Fox has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute this season and leads the team with a 28.1 percent usage rate and 28.8 percent assist rate.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox ($8,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox ($7,300)
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