This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS strategy article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA daily fantasy picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | June 14
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and I from 5 to 6 p.m. every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
As always, if you have any questions after reading the article, feel free to DM me in Slack.
Point Guard
Trae Young ($9,200 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel) hasn’t been as dominant in the two most recent games as he was in the series opener, but he is still reasonably priced for his role and playing time. In the two games since the Sixers decided to use Ben Simmons as Young’s primary defender, Young has usage rates of 28 and 28.5 percent. While those are his two lowest usage rates in any game this postseason, it is still plenty of shot volume- especially when you consider that he has also averaged 18.8 potential assists per game in those two games. Young has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute and 37.3 minutes per game in the two games that Simmons has been his primary defender and 1.28 DraftKings points per minute and 37,9 minutes per game overall in the series. Young’s production should be below average compared to his normal rates, but he still projects as a top scoring option on this slate as long as he plays 37 or 38 minutes. Despite the salary, Young still ranks as the No. 2 overall value play on the slate in the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections.
Ben Simmons ($7,600 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel) had only an 8 percent usage rate in his first game as Young’s primary defender, but he followed it up with a 23.3 percent usage rate in his next game. Overall in this series, Simmons has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute and 35.2 minutes per game with a 16.6 percent usage rate and 28.4 percent assist rate. In 44 total games played with Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris active this season, including the postseason, Simmons has produced 1.16 DraftKings points per minute with an 18.3 percent usage rate and 32.2 percent assist rate. His assignment on the defensive end could take away from his offensive production, and Simmons is always a risk to disappear offensively anyway, but there is plenty of upside at his price point- particularly on DraftKings where he also benefits from the potential for a double-double or triple-double bonus.
Reggie Jackson ($5,200 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) played 29 minutes in the Clippers’ blowout win on Saturday, losing about three minutes to garbage time. As a starter this postseason, Jackson has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute and 30.2 minutes per game in eight starts. If tonight’s game is competitive, Jackson should play 32 or 33 minutes. His matchup is difficult, but he is affordable on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Shake Milton ($3,200 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) is a candidate for more playing time with Danny Green sidelined. Assuming Milton comes off the bench, he will be a risky option since Doc Rivers frequently changes his bench rotations and there are plenty of alternatives to Milton like Tyrese Maxey and George Hill. Milton played 21 minutes in their last game, when Green was injured, however, and he is extremely inexpensive which helps to mitigate some of the risk. Milton has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute in 44 games played with Simmons, Embiid and Harris active this season. If he is a popular option in tournaments, Maxey is a logical pivot since he only played about five minutes last game. If Maxey were to be a bigger part of the rotation tonight, it is likely that he is playing instead of Milton.
Top DraftKings Picks: Trae Young, Ben Simmons, Shake Milton
Top FanDuel Picks: Trae Young, Reggie Jackson, Shake Milton
Shooting Guard
Donovan Mitchell ($9,000 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel) has been an excellent fantasy producer so far against the Clippers. LA had some early success against him last game when they used Kawhi Leonard as his primary defender, but Mitchell still managed to finish the game with 30 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists. Through the first three games, Mitchell has attempted 30, 29 and 24 field goal attempts and has averaged 1.46 DraftKings points per minute in 36.1 minutes per game. Mitchell’s final projection will depend on the status of Mike Conley Jr.. In 11 games played without Conley during the regular season, Mitchell averaged 1.45 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.9 percent usage rate and 32.2 percent assist rate. In 42 games played alongside Conley, Mitchell averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute with a 33.2 percent usage rate and 25.1 percent assist rate. While Mitchell is still the top dog offensively and a strong DFS option if Conley plays, he projects as an even better option if Conley is forced to miss another game.
Paul George ($8,600 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel) has produced 1.11 DraftKings points per minute in the first three games against Utah and 1.15 DraftKings points per minute in 10 postseason games this season. He has averaged 40.3 minutes per game in the playoffs and is likely to be one of the leaders in minutes played tonight. George is underpriced for his playing time and production, but his value relative to the slate will depend, in part, on Conley’s status. If Conley is able to play, Mitchell’s projection will decrease which makes George a more appealing option. If Conley is out, there will be a larger gap in projection between Mitchell and George at similar prices.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”06/14/2021″ team=”clippers”]
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,400 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) stands out as one of the top mid-range values on tonight’s slate. Bogdanovic played 39.4 minutes last game after playing about 41 minutes in the previous game. De’Andre Hunter’s injury has opened up more playing time for several members of the Hawks, including Bogdanovic. While he has been disappointing from a DFS standpoint in each of his last two games, there should be increased three-point opportunities for him as the sample grows. The Sixers are focusing heavily on getting the ball out of Young’s hands and Bogdanovic leads the Hawks in catch-and-shoot field goal attempts. Overall this postseason, Bogdanovic has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute. If he plays about 40 minutes tonight, that level of production is enough to satisfy his salary and there is the potential for more fantasy points as his 3-point percentage in the postseason is about eight points lower than it was during the regular season. Bogdanovic is carrying a 35-point projection in our daily fantasy basketball projections, and he was even No. 1 in Josh Engleman’s DraftKings NBA ConTENders Rankings today.
Seth Curry ($5,100 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) could play a couple of extra minutes with Green sidelined. So far in the series against Atlanta, Curry has played 36, 29 and 32 minutes. In the postseason, Curry has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute and 29.9 minutes per game. It is likely we get 32 to 34 minutes from Curry if tonight’s game is competitive, making him a viable value option.
Kevin Huerter ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) makes for an interesting option in tournaments if his ownership is relatively low. Huerter was excellent in the first two games against the Sixers, producing 30.25 and 29 DraftKings points in 29 and 36 minutes. In the third game, however, he struggled as he was just 1 of 6 from the field and produced 5 DraftKings points in 23 minutes. There is still a ton of recency bias in DFS. There wasn’t anything that suggests Huerter’s role is any different tonight than it was in the first two games, however, as part of the reason that he lost playing time was foul trouble. If Huerter’s shot is falling, there is no reason not to expect at least 28 to 30 minutes tonight, if not more.
Furkan Korkmaz ($3,500 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel) started the second half last game in place of Danny Green. For now, I am assuming that Korkmaz will start again tonight- though Doc Rivers has plenty of options to choose from. If he starts, Korkmaz should play 26 to 28 minutes. He played 27.4 minutes last game after Green’s injury, including about 16 minutes in the second half. Korkmaz averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute and 26.8 minutes per game in 11 starts this season. He is a much stronger value on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel given the difference in salary and the fact that the DraftKings’ scoring system gives a bonus for three-pointers.
Top DraftKings Picks: Donovan Mitchell, Paul George, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Furkan Korkmaz (if starting)
Top FanDuel Picks: Donovan Mitchell, Paul George, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Seth Curry
Small Forward
Kawhi Leonard ($10,000 DraftKings/$11,200 FanDuel) headlines a thin small forward position tonight. Leonard is the second most expensive player on DraftKings and is tied for the most expensive player on FanDuel. The lack of depth at his position lowers the opportunity cost, however, which makes his salary a bit more palatable- especially on FanDuel where we can’t use multi-position eligibility to fill out this spot in our lineups and we have to choose two of these options. So far against Utah, Leonard has produced 1.24 DraftKings points per minute and has averaged 37.5 minutes per game. In 10 total games this postseason, Leonard has averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute and 39.7 minutes per game. Leonard is one of only three players who are above 50 in the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections tonight.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,600 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) looks like a much more appealing option on FanDuel tonight than on DraftKings because of the differences in roster construction. Bogdanovic isn’t one of the Utah players who sees much of a difference in his projection whether Conley is available or not. In 8 games this postseason, Bogdanovic has averaged 0.78 DraftKings points per minute and 34.6 minutes per game. He is a scoring dependent player who only has a 19.6 percent usage rate in the postseason, which makes him a risky option. Still, he is inexpensive and is likely to get minutes into the mid-thirties.
Danilo Gallinari ($4,600 PF DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) can only be rostered at power forward on DraftKings, where he looks like a strong value, but he is a small forward on FanDuel. Gallinari was one of the most popular DFS plays in the first game of the series, and he only played about 18 minutes and was terrible from a fantasy standpoint. All that we really learned from that game, however, was that if Gallinari plays really poorly the Hawks will look to other options. Since then, Gallinari has played 26 and 30 minutes with 37.75 and 20.75 DraftKings points. He has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute and 24.1 minutes per game overall this postseason, but he is likely to pick up a couple extra minutes with Hunter sidelined. Gallinari has a low floor, but his salary is still too cheap for the ceiling that he provides.
Nicolas Batum ($4,500 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) rejoined the starting lineup last game and produced 32.25 DraftKings points in 35.1 minutes of action. He also lost about three minutes to garbage time at the end of the game. Batum has now started six games this postseason and he has averaged 33.9 minutes per game in those starts. He has averaged 0.76 DraftKings points per minute in those games, which is in line with his production as a starter during the regular season as well.
Top DraftKings Picks: Kawhi Leonard, Nicolas Batum
Top FanDuel Picks: Kawhi Leonard, Bojan Bogdanovic, Danilo Gallinari
Power Forward
Tobias Harris ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,600 FanDuel) has averaged 37 minutes per game and 1.09 DraftKings points per minute in the first three games against Atlanta this postseason. During the regular season, Harris averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in the games that he played alongside Simmons and Embiid, so it is reasonable to expect him to continue producing slightly more than a fantasy point per minute in this series. Harris’s salary doesn’t leave a ton of upside on the table, but it is still a reasonable price tag given the lack of depth at the position and the fact it is only a two-game slate.
John Collins ($5,900 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) has struggled against the Sixers so far, averaging just 0.87 DraftKings points per minute. In fact, he has averaged only 0.83 DraftKings points per minute in 8 total games this postseason, so his struggles haven’t been limited to only this matchup. On a positive note, Collins has averaged 33.9 minutes per game in his three games against the Sixers. During the regular season, Collins averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute, so there is the potential for more production. The biggest concern for Collins is that his poor performance isn’t a result of poor shooting and/or bad luck. His usage rate during the regular season was 22.2 percent compared to 16.9 percent in the postseason and his rebounding rate has dropped from 13.8 percent to 11.7 percent. His rates have rebounded a bit in the series against the Sixers as he has posted a 19.2 percent usage rate and 12.9 percent rebounding rate. Collins’ salary has decreased to a point where I am willing to roster him despite the concerns, but it is important to be aware that he has not been getting the same opportunities that he did during the regular season.
Royce O’Neale ($4,900 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) has been a surprisingly useful DFS option so far during the playoffs. O’Neale has averaged 37.2 minutes per game and 0.66 DraftKings points per minute so far against the Clippers. Overall this postseason, he has averaged 35.5 minutes per game and 0.74 DraftKings points per minute. While the per-minute production leaves plenty to be desired, O’Neale produces at a high enough rate that he is a reasonable value based on his playing time- especially on DraftKings where he is discounted.
Marcus Morris ($4,300 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) is a spot where we can look to take advantage of recency bias in tournaments. Morris was a very popular option last game, but he produced just 12 DraftKings points in 22 minutes of play. People will feel more confident in rostering Batum instead of Morris since Batum played an additional 13 minutes and produced an additional 20 fantasy points last game. While Batum is also a good option, the difference between the two is not very big. Morris has averaged 0.64 DraftKings points per minute and 32.6 minutes per game in 10 games this postseason, but he averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute in 17 starts alongside George and Leonard during the regular season. He also benefits as a rebound when Ivica Zubac comes off the bench, which is likely to be the case tonight.
Top DraftKings Picks: Tobias Harris, John Collins, Marcus Morris
Top FanDuel Picks: Tobias Harris, John Collins, Marcus Morris
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”06/14/2021″ team=”hawks”]
Center
Joel Embiid ($10,500 DraftKings/$11,200 FanDuel) is officially questionable for tonight’s game, but he has been questionable for every game in the series and has played 38, 35 and 34 minutes in those games. He has also been extremely productive, averaging 1.76 DraftKings points per minute with a 36.7 percent usage rate. Assuming he plays, Embiid should be in line for another huge game tonight.
Rudy Gobert ($7,400 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel) has been a pedestrian DFS option through the first three games of the series against the Clippers. Particularly concerning is that Gobert’s only strong fantasy performance came in the game where the Clippers didn’t use a small starting lineup. While there is certainly merit to the logic that a smaller lineup can pull a center away from the basket and hurt his rebounding numbers, I’m not convinced that is the case here. In the two games that the Clippers have started small, Gobert has had 25.9 and 26.7 rebound chances per 36 minutes. The average distance of his rebounds in those games has been 2.9 and 3.8 feet. During the regular season, Gobert averaged 26.8 rebound chances per 36 minutes with an average distance of 4.0 feet. Gobert averaged 15.8 rebounds per 36 minutes during the regular season and has averaged just 12.6 rebounds per 36 minutes in the two games against the Clippers’ small frontcourt. Based on the similarities in rebound chances and rebound distance between Gobert’s regular season numbers and his numbers against the Clippers’ small lineups, his rebounding numbers should improve sooner rather than later.
Clint Capela ($7,100 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) offers plenty of upside for his salary, but like John Collins, his rates have fallen during the postseason which is a legitimate concern. In the regular season, Capela averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute with a 19.9 percent usage rate and 26.1 percent rebounding rate in 30.1 minutes per game. So far in the postseason, his playing time has increased to 32.3 minutes per game, but his usage rate has decreased to 12.6 percent and his rebounding rate has decreased to 22 percent. He has averaged just 0.98 DraftKings points per minute as a result. In the first three games against Embiid and the Sixers, Capela’s rates look slightly better as he has a 15.4 percent usage rate and 24.2 percent rebounding rate. He has averaged just 29.4 minutes per game through the first three games, however, though part of that is because of blowouts. Capela is capable of producing a tournament winning score at this salary, but it is important to understand it is less likely that Capela has a great game.
Top DraftKings Picks: Joel Embiid, Rudy Gobert
Top FanDuel Picks: Joel Embiid, Clint Capela
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