This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS Picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and myself from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
If you have any questions after reading the article, always feel free to DM me in Slack.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Jan. 12
Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers (-8): 210.5
Miami Heat
The Heat will be without Bam Adebayo, Avery Bradley, Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, Maurice Harkless, Udonis Haslem, Kendrick Nunn and KZ Okpala. Meyers Leonard is questionable. Kelly Olynyk and Gabe Vincent are probable.
This game is a mess, and the Heat are the more difficult side to project because they’re missing more players and we haven’t seen them play a game without these guys yet, so we have to make educated guesses on a lot of things.
My assumption is that Tyler Herro, Olynyk, Duncan Robinson, Precious Achiuwa and someone else will start the game. The “someone else” will probably be either Andre Iguodala, Max Strus or Vincent.
I expect that we get at least 34 to 36 minutes from Herro and Robinson as Miami is shorter on guards and wings than frontcourt players. We could also see big minutes for Olynyk and Achiuwa, especially if they are playing well. My guess is that, if things go according to plan, we also get between 24 and 30 minutes for Iguodala, Strus and Vincent. Leonard and Chris Silva should then soak up whatever minutes are available at center and power forward behind Achiuwa, Olynyk and Iguodala.
Including the preseason, Herro has played 299 minutes without any of Adebayo, Butler or Dragic on the floor in his career. He has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.8 percent usage rate and 18.9 percent assist rate. If we also remove Nunn, Herro has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute in 108 minutes with a 28.6 percent usage rate and 22.4 percent assist rate.
Robinson has averaged 0.75 DraftKings points per minute with a 20.7 percent usage rate in 54 minutes under those conditions while Iguodala has averaged 0.72 DraftKings points per minute with an 18.7 percent usage rate and 17.6 percent assist rate in 61 minutes. Olynyk has played 91 minutes and averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute with a 25.3 percent usage rate while Vincent has averaged 0.70 DraftKings points per minute in 57 minutes. Achiuwa has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over 46 minutes.
Allowing for Nunn or Dragic to be on the floor in order to increase the sample size, Strus has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute with a 22.4 percent usage rate and 23.1 percent assist rate in 56 minutes.
As mentioned before, this is all a mess and there is only so much that we can do to predict it. The starters will be the safest bets to play the most minutes- particularly the ones that are normally in the rotation. The other thing to prioritize is points per minute since there is uncertainty in how many minutes many of the secondary players will play.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Tyler Herro ($6,700), Kelly Olynyk ($5,300), Precious Achiuwa ($3,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Game isn’t on the slate
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers are still without Seth Curry, Terrance Ferguson, Tobias Harris, Furkan Korkmaz, Shake Milton, Vincent Poirier and Matisse Thybulle. Ben Simmons is probable after missing the last two games and Joel Embiid is probable as well.
Philadelphia had nine active players last night and it looks like they’ll have 10 tonight with Simmons expected back. My assumption is that we get the same starting lineup as last night, with the exception of Simmons moving into the starting lineup in place of either Dakota Mathias or Mike Scott.
Including the preseason, Embiid has averaged 1.59 DraftKings points per minute in 524 minutes without Harris or Horford on the floor and Simmons has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute in 295 minutes without them on the floor. Tyrese Maxey has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute in 205 minutes, though that production could take a hit with both Embiid and Simmons active. Scott has averaged 0.75 DraftKings points per minute in 858 minutes. Mathias has averaged 0.66 DraftKings points per minute in 125 minutes while Isaiah Joe has averaged 0.72 DraftKings points per minute in 112 minutes. Danny Green has averaged 0.52 DraftKings points per minute in 79 minutes, but he has a 25.8 percent true shooting rate and we should expect him to end up in the 0.80 DraftKings points per minute range over a larger sample.
As far as playing time goes, it’s tough to take too much away from last night’s game since it was a blowout and Simmons was inactive. I expect that Maxey plays into the mid-thirties again and that Embiid and Simmons do so as well. Green is probably a good bet to play 30 to 32 minutes. We saw Dwight Howard play alongside Embiid last night and finish with 34.8 minutes played. I don’t expect that we get much of them alongside each other tonight since Simmons can play the four. I expect Howard to return to his role as the back-up center with Scott and Reed helping to soak up the rest of the power forward minutes.
The best combinations of expected playing time, per-minute production and salary appear to be Maxey and Embiid. Mathias would be my third option if he starts because he led the team in minutes last night and, based on last night’s rotations, I expect Tony Bradley, Paul Reed and Howard to lose minutes to Simmons before Mathias does.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid ($9,700), Tyrese Maxey ($5,500), Dakota Mathias ($3,900 if he starts)
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Utah Jazz at Cleveland Cavaliers (+10.5): 206
Utah Jazz
Joe Ingles is questionable tonight. He played in Utah’s most recent game after missing the previous game. If he is out, we should expect Jordan Clarkson to be the main beneficiary off the bench as he played 35 minutes in the game without Ingles.
Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert remain the primary targets from the Jazz. They’re more favorably priced on FanDuel than DraftKings, but they are viable tournament targets on DraftKings as well. Mitchell leads the team with 33.9 minutes per game this season and he has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute. He also leads the team with a 32.2 percent usage rate, and he is second to Mike Conley with a 25 percent assist rate. Mitchell only has a 51.7 percent true shooting rate this season, which is the lowest of his career by two points. Last season, his true shooting rate was the best of his young career at 55.8 percent. We should see Mitchell’s shooting improve as the season goes on, which will obviously increase his per-minute production as well. Gobert has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute this season in 30.9 minutes per game. We can expect Gobert to play at least 33 to 35 minutes if this game is competitive, however, as his size will be needed against Cleveland’s center combination of Andre Drummond and JaVale McGee.
Conley and Clarkson both offer upside as they have averaged 1.11 and 1.13 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 24.3 and 27.1 percent usage rate, respectively. Their salaries are appropriate for their playing time and production, however, so I will most likely only be targeting them if they are low-owned in tournaments. Bojan Bogdanovic has been disappointing this season with only 0.67 DraftKings points per minute. His 46.9 percent true shooting rate is much lower than his career average of 58.7 percent, however, so we should expect his production to increase sooner than later. He is most valuable on FanDuel, where he is priced for his year-to-date production as opposed to his long-term averages.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Donovan Mitchell ($8,400), Rudy Gobert ($8,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Donovan Mitchell ($7,800), Rudy Gobert ($8,000), Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,500)
Cleveland Cavaliers
Update: Sexton is out again. Drummond is questionable. If he sits, we get McGee as a top value on the slate and would also expect more production for Larry Nance Jr. as he would probably get back-up center minutes. Gobert would also benefit as not having to compete with Andre Drummond for rebounds can only be a positive.
The Cavaliers haven’t submitted an injury report yet since they played last night, but I assume that Collin Sexton will be questionable. He was a late scratch last night for the second time in the last week, so I’m assuming that he won’t play again tonight.
Cleveland has played a lot of games short-handed recently, so the pricing on most of their players has increased and there isn’t much value left to target. The addition of Yogi Ferrell also hurts some of the secondary players on the Cavs since it gives Cleveland another ball-handler that can steal 16 to 20 minutes per game.
Drummond is the starting point for Cleveland as his salary remains relatively inexpensive and his playing time has been trending up. He also sees his rates increase across the board playing without any of Kevin Love, Darius Garland or Sexton. Drummond is a capable facilitator in addition to a high-usage center and great rebounder, so he benefits in all areas when the Cavaliers are missing their top players. He has averaged 1.45 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.8 percent usage rate, 26.8 percent rebounding rate and 16.1 percent assist rate overall this season. Drummond played 34.6 minutes last night, which gives him at least 34 minutes played in three straight games after failing to reach that mark more than once in his first seven games of the season.
I don’t have much interest in anything else from Cleveland unless Sexton plays and isn’t going to be limited. In that case, Sexton would have value as he has averaged about 37 minutes per game this season and just shy of one DraftKings point per minute. If he is out, we should once again see Damyean Dotson play 36 to 40 minutes. He has actually been the primary beneficiary in terms of potential assists with Sexton out, but I expect his numbers to be hurt somewhat by the addition of Ferrell. His salary has also come up enough to where he actually has to play well to justify his price.
Cedi Osman is cheap on FanDuel and has some value if Sexton is out as we should expect him to play about 34 minutes. He has averaged 0.82 FanDuel points per minute this season, which will make him project as a solid point-per-dollar option. Nance should also play big minutes, with or without Sexton, but he is more expensive and has only averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute this season as his rebounding numbers have been hurt by playing alongside Drummond and McGee.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond ($9,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond ($9,800), Cedi Osman ($5,100 if Sexton is out)
Denver Nuggets at Brooklyn Nets (-1.5): 230
Denver Nuggets
Michael Porter Jr. remains out for the Nuggets, so Will Barton should start again in his place.
Nikola Jokic has been one of the most productive per-minute producers in the league this season with 1.64 DraftKings points per minute. He leads the Nuggets in usage rate (29.9 percent), rebounding rate (20.2 percent) and assist rate (43.3 percent). He is sixth in the NBA with 16.1 potential assists per game. The players ahead of him are Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, James Harden, Luka Doncic and Trae Young. He is eighth in the NBA in rebound chances per game as well. Oh, by the way, he has also averaged 35.7 minutes per game through Denver’s first nine games, which is in line with the 36.2 minutes per game that he averaged in 12 games without Mason Plumlee last season. The Nets have been surprisingly good defensively so far this season, but they have also played at the league’s fourth-fastest pace, so their defensive efficiency isn’t much of a concern for Jokic.
We have reasonable price tags on Jamal Murray and Barton as well in what is likely to be a high scoring game. Murray leads the Nuggets with 35.8 minutes per game this season and has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute with a 22.5 percent usage rate and 15.7 percent assist rate. Murray’s assist rate last season was about 24 percent, so it will be interesting to see if it increases as the season goes on. He has averaged 8.3 potential assists per 36 minutes this season compared to 9.8 potential assists per 36 minutes last season, so it makes sense to see at least somewhat of a drop-off in his assist numbers as long as Jokic is dominating potential assists like he has so far this season. Barton has averaged 29 minutes per game and 0.86 DraftKings points per minute in six starts so far this season. Denver has been involved in several blowouts over that stretch, however, so it is reasonable to expect Barton to play a couple more minutes as long as this game is close.
Paul Millsap and JaMychal Green are both low-floor value options who have relatively high ceilings for their price tags. Millsap has averaged 24.1 minutes per game this season, while Green has averaged 20.2 minutes per game. They typically split minutes at power forward, so I don’t want to roster them together. If this game is close, whichever is playing better will have a chance to play 26 to 28 minutes, however. Millsap has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute this season while Green has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute. If I can only choose one, my guess is that Green closes over Millsap because I think he is a better fit defensively against Brooklyn.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic ($11,000), Jamal Murray ($6,900), Will Barton ($5,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic ($11,400), Jamal Murray ($7,000), Will Barton ($5,700)
Brooklyn Nets
Kyrie Irving is still out tonight, so we should see similar rotations to Brooklyn’s last game.
Kevin Durant remains one of the best plays on the slate as he takes on the Nuggets without Kyrie Irving. Denver has been one of the slowest teams in the league so far this season, but also one of the least efficient. Durant has played 57 regular season minutes without Irving this season and he has averaged 1.57 DraftKings points per minute with a 36.1 percent usage rate. We can also look to Durant’s time with Golden State to try and get an idea of how his rates will look without another star on the floor. Durant played 936 minutes without Steph Curry on the floor and averaged 1.54 DraftKings points per minute with a 38.2 percent usage rate- numbers that are in line with what we’ve seen over a small sample with the Nets so far. Durant played 37.7 minutes in Brooklyn’s loss to Oklahoma City on Sunday and we should expect to see at least 34 or 35 minutes again tonight.
Caris LeVert played 35.5 minutes against Oklahoma City on Sunday and he has upside here as well. It’s important to note that most of his minutes came alongside Durant last game and that will hurt LeVert’s rates compared to when Durant and Irving were both out. So far this season, LeVert has played 50 minutes alongside Durant without Irving and has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute with a 19.7 percent usage rate. I expect his usage rate to increase as we get a bigger sample, but I don’t expect him to approach 30-plus percent usage like we see when Durant is also off the floor. I think the best way to project LeVert is probably to use his numbers from last season when he played alongside Irving without Dinwiddie. Obviously, Irving is out tonight but, in this case, he is serving as a proxy for Durant. LeVert has played 242 minutes alongside Irving without Durant or Dinwiddie on the floor since the start of last season. He has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.9 percent usage rate and 17.8 percent assist rate. His true shooting rate over that sample is only 45.9 percent compared to his career average of 52.2 percent, so I expect the per-minute production to be higher going forward. I think the rates are a reasonable expectation for LeVert’s minutes alongside Durant, however.
Jarrett Allen and DeAndre Jordan continued to split all of the center minutes last game, excluding garbage time. Allen has been starting and getting the bulk of the minutes, so he is easier to trust tonight than Jordan. Allen has averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute this season and he has played at least 30 minutes in three of his last four games. Jordan has only played more than 20 minutes once this season so we have no reason to rely on him tonight. That said, he is a reasonable value option in large field tournaments on DraftKings because we can roster two centers and he is inexpensive. If Allen gets in foul trouble against Jokic, Jordan would be the next man up and he has averaged almost one fantasy point per minute this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kevin Durant ($9,400), Jarrett Allen ($6,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kevin Durant ($10,100), Jarrett Allen ($6,800)
Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets (+4.5): 222.5
Los Angeles Lakers
LeBron James and Anthony Davis are both questionable, as usual. Wesley Matthews is out and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is probable. I am assuming that James and Davis both play until we hear otherwise.
James and Davis are both much better plays if the other one is not playing, but they’re inexpensive on DraftKings and FanDuel so I have interest even if they both play tonight. James has averaged 1.52 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.5 percent usage rate and 39.4 percent assist rate in nine games alongside Davis this season while Davis has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.2 percent usage rate.
Dennis Schroder is the other piece from the Lakers that I am routinely interested in. He has averaged 31.7 minutes per game and 0.91 DraftKings points per minute in the nine games that he has played with both of James and Davis this season. He has a 22.7 percent usage rate and 22.0 percent assist rate in those games, so he has the ability to contribute as a scorer and as a playmaker even when James and Davis are both active.
I’m mentioning Talen Horton-Tucker here just in case anyone looks at the Lakers’ last game against the Rockets where Horton-Tucker played 20.5 minutes and comes to the conclusion that Horton-Tucker will play 20 minutes since Matthews is out again. Horton-Tucker subbed in for Markieff Morris in the first half after Morris was ejected. He then played 10 minutes in the half. He played about five minutes in the third quarter and then another five minutes in garbage time at the end of the game. I don’t expect Horton-Tucker to get enough minutes to be viable tonight unless unexpected players miss this game or something weird happens during the game.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James ($10,000), Anthony Davis ($9,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James ($9,900), Anthony Davis ($9,800), Dennis Schroder ($5,500)
Houston Rockets
Eric Gordon and John Wall are both questionable tonight. Danuel House is out. If Wall sits, Harden becomes a much better option as he will see increased usage and assist opportunities. If Gordon sits, we probably just see more minutes for a collection of wings who produce at low per-minute rates.
Harden has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.3 percent usage rate and 42.6 percent assist rate in five games alongside Wall this season compared to 1.79 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.3 percent usage rate and 62.2 percent assist rate in two games without Wall. I expect the usage rate with Wall to increase over a larger sample and the assist rate without Wall to decrease, but the point remains that Harden is a secondary option if Wall plays and a top option if he sits.
Wall has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute with a 25.1 percent usage rate and 22.9 percent assist rate in his five games alongside Harden. Wall has averaged 34 minutes per game in those games and often sees more when he isn’t in foul trouble and the game is competitive. Wall’s salary is reasonable on DraftKings and FanDuel and he looks like a good play if he is able to suit up tonight.
Christian Wood has been extremely productive this season with 1.26 DraftKings points per minute and a 26.5 percent usage rate. He has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.2 percent usage rate in four games alongside Harden and Wall. I find it hard to believe that he is going to maintain a higher usage rate this season playing alongside Harden and Wall than he had in Detroit last season but, even so, he is going to be a high-usage player and should lead the team in rebounds as well. We should expect 30 to 32 minutes from Wood and he is a high-upside option who is likely to be relatively low-owned since the center position is deep. He is more valuable on FanDuel where he is a power forward for some reason.
DeMarcus Cousins has the potential to be a really sneaky GPP option, especially on DraftKings where we can roster two centers. Cousins has been very productive this season with 1.46 DraftKings points per minute in 76 minutes played. Normally, he has limited value because he has played a total of two possessions alongside Wood this season which means that he’s limited to 16 to 18 minutes as long as Wood is healthy and not in foul trouble.
I think we could see them play alongside each other tonight, however. The Lakers have a big frontcourt with Gasol or Harrell at center and Anthony Davis next to them. Houston’s coach, Stephen Silas, said before their last game against the Lakers that he may use Cousins and Wood alongside each other in that matchup. We didn’t get a chance to see that play out, however, because Wood picked up two fouls in the first five minutes and went to the bench. Cousins was then ejected after playing 8.4 minutes. It becomes even more likely that Cousins plays alongside Wood if Wall or Gordon miss the game but, even if they are both active, I think we will see Cousins play alongside Wood for at least a few minutes. Cousins is cheap enough that, if he finds his way onto the floor for 20-plus minutes, he is likely to be a good play.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: John Wall ($7,400), DeMarcus Cousins ($4,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: John Wall ($7,600), Christian Wood ($8,100)
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder (+2.5): 218.5
San Antonio Spurs
DeMar DeRozan and Derrick White remain out. Trey Lyles started in place of DeRozan last game and played 35 minutes.
LaMarcus Aldridge played 36.7 minutes against Minnesota last game and it appears that he is back to full strength. He has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute and 36.8 minutes per game in three games without DeRozan since the start of last season. He has a 32.0 percent usage rate, 15.1 percent rebounding rate and 20.2 percent assist rate in those games. Overall, he has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.8 percent usage rate, 15.4 percent rebounding rate and 14.1 percent assist rate in 337 minutes without DeRozan on the floor since the start of last season.
Dejounte Murray has averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.2 percent usage rate and 26.1 percent assist rate in 525 minutes without DeRozan on the floor since the start of last season. Of those 525 minutes, 157 have been alongside Aldridge. Murray has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.0 percent usage rate and 26.0 percent assist rate in those minutes. Murray played 35.9 minutes against the Timberwolves on Sunday with about 28 of them alongside Aldridge.
Lonnie Walker has averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute in 180 minutes alongside Aldridge without DeRozan while Keldon Johnson has only played 42 minutes in that situation since the start of last season. Johnson has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute overall this season, so we should expect him to produce at least a fantasy point per minute. Walker’s salary increased after an excellent performance in 30 minutes on Sunday while Johnson had a disappointing game in 34 minutes and his salary didn’t increase.
Lyles has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute in 132 minutes alongside Aldridge without DeRozan since the start of last season and he looks like one of the top point-per-dollar values as long as he starts again tonight.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,300), Dejounte Murray ($7,200), Trey Lyles ($3,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,200), Dejounte Murray ($7,500), Trey Lyles ($3,600)
Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains affordable despite three straight games with at least 50 DraftKings points. Gilgeous-Alexander will have some disappointing games this season as he is the only real offensive threat on a bad Oklahoma City team, but he has tons of opportunity to do well. He has averaged 33.3 minutes per game this season and typically plays a couple more minutes in competitive games. He leads the Thunder with a 26.6 percent usage rate and a 33.2 percent assist rate this season. He has averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute. San Antonio is a favorable matchup as well, as they rank 19th in defensive rating and 11th in pace so far this season.
Darius Bazley is the only other Oklahoma City player that we can rely on to play more than 30 minutes. He has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season and leads the Thunder in rebounding rate at 14.5 percent.
Hamidou Diallo has had monster games in back-to-back games, but he has yet to play 30 minutes in a game this season and only played about 24 minutes against Brooklyn on Sunday. His salary is rising and, while he has been extremely productive so far this season with 1.14 DraftKings points per minute, it’s difficult to trust that he continues that production over a larger sample size. Diallo has a 51.0 percent true shooting rate in his career but a 59.9 percent true shooting rate so far this season so, at the very least, I expect his scoring efficiency to decrease moving forward.
George Hill and Al Horford are decent values if you’re making a lot of lineups, but Horford costs us a center spot which is extremely valuable tonight. He has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute in 26.7 minutes per game this season while Hill has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute in 25.4 minutes per game.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,500)
Indiana Pacers at Golden State Warriors (-3): 227.5
Indiana Pacers
Victor Oladipo is listed as questionable but is considered unlikely to play tonight on the second half of a back-to-back.
The Pacers get another good matchup tonight as they face a Golden State team that is second in pace and 22nd in defensive rating so far this season. Domantas Sabonis has averaged 37.7 minutes per game and 1.25 DraftKings points per minute so far this season. One potential concern for Sabonis is that the Warriors have allowed the fourth-fewest points in the paint per game this season and 70.3 percent of Sabonis’ points have come in the paint this season. Still, he isn’t a scoring dependent player who contributes rebounds and assists as well, so he is close to matchup proof. He has averaged 1.44 DraftKings points per minute in 755 minutes without Warren or Oladipo on the floor since last season. Of those 755 minutes, 141 have been alongside Malcolm Brogdon and Sabonis has averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute
Brogdon played 37.9 minutes last night and has now averaged 40.0 minutes per game in six games since T.J. Warren’s injury. Brogdon has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute this season and 1.18 DraftKings points per minute in 141 minutes alongside Sabonis without Warren or Oladipo on the floor since last season.
Myles Turner leads the league with four blocks per game this season and he has averaged 31 minutes per game since Warren’s injury. His playing time could be even more secure tonight if Oladipo is out as the Pacers could need Sabonis to play more minutes at the four with Turner playing longer rotations at center. Overall, Turner has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute this season and he will almost certainly go overlooked at a deep center position in tournaments.
Doug McDermott and Aaron Holiday will be reasonable value options if Oladipo is out. McDermott has averaged 24 minutes per game since Warren’s injury and 0.77 DraftKings points per minute this season. Holiday was removed from the starting lineup last night and replaced by his brother, Justin, but I expect he would re-join the starting lineup if Oladipo sits. Whether he starts or not, he should see minutes into the mid to upper twenties if Oladipo is out since T.J. McConnell is also out. Justin Holiday played 34 minutes last night as a starter and I expect similar playing time tonight, but his salary is the most expensive out of this group. He is more affordable on FanDuel than DraftKings.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis ($9,300), Malcolm Brogdon ($8,600)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis ($9,200), Malcolm Brogdon ($8,400)
Golden State Warriors
Stephen Curry remains one of the highest upside targets on any slate that he is on. He has averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.6 percent usage rate this season and 34.1 minutes per game. He will probably be lower owned than he normally would on a six-game slate since we have Durant playing without Kyrie and Embiid and Simmons playing without the rest of their team.
Outside of Curry, nothing on Golden State looks particularly appealing. I expect Kelly Oubre to eventually turn things around as his true shooting rate this season is only 39.5 percent and his career average is 53.6 percent. He has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season despite shooting unsustainably poorly, so he has some value as he is currently priced to his floor. In the context of the slate, however, there are plenty of other options that are similar or better than Oubre. The same goes for Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green. Wiggins has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute and 32.2 minutes per game while Green has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute and should play about 30 minutes tonight. Both players have some upside at their salaries, but they fall behind a lot of other options on this slate.
James Wiseman has been productive on a per-minute basis this season with 1.10 DraftKings points per minute. He has only averaged 18 minutes per game in six games since Green returned, however, so it’s tough to justify using a center spot on him- especially because he was rarely exceeding 24 minutes even before Green returned.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($9,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($9,600)
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