Sunday’s NBA DFS playoff slate brings Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals that pits the surprising Atlanta Hawks against the expected Milwaukee Bucks. The series heads to Atlanta tied at one game each, as the upstart Hawks simply refuse to get rolled over in these playoff series. After stealing Game 1 by 3 points in Milwaukee, the Hawks got their doors blown off in a 34-point rout in the second game of the series. The Bucks need to at least win one back in Atlanta to avoid going back home in a major hole. They will look to strike early in this first game on the Hawks’ homecourt. Atlanta, particularly Trae Young, will need to score the ball far better than in the last game if they plan to keep things close. If they make it through three quarters within range, it’s anyone’s game.
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Giannis Antetokounmpo ($18,000 CPT; $12,000 UTIL DraftKings/$16,500 FanDuel) is technically questionable for this game, but there is little chance that he will miss this contest. He is appropriately priced for his massive upside. If quibbling, point to a minor sacrifice of potential upside when he struggles from the free-throw line. Otherwise, Antetokounmpo is difficult to argue against as the best overall play on any slate. He is averaging 38.1 minutes per game for the playoffs and delivering 1.40 fantasy points per minute. That massive production is down from his 1.63 per minute through the regular season, but it remains a spectacular mark with clear upside for more.
Khris Middleton ($15,000 CPT; $10,000 UTIL DraftKings/$12,500 FanDuel) seems underpriced by comparison on the FanDuel slate. He would be a good primary player on a bad team, and he makes a perfect wingman for a star like his current running mate. Middleton is averaging 38.7 minutes and 22 real points per game during the playoffs. Middleton consumes 25.6% of the team’s usage, 26.1% of the assists and 19.0% rebounds in the postseason, averaging 1.04 fantasy points per minute that can be boosted by defense; Middleton has averaged 1.7 stocks per game in the playoffs. Middleton’s ownership in the Captain spot on DraftKings seems low for his general talent level and individual upside.
Jrue Holiday ($14,400 CPT; $9,600 DraftKings; $13,500 FanDuel) comes in at a higher price than Middleton on the FanDuel slate despite the per-minute rate. He averages 0.92 per minute over the course of the playoffs, down from his 1.14 from the regular season. Holiday is a strong third option for the Bucks, and he provides an excellent complementary skill set on the court for real-life basketball. He seems a bit overpriced for NBA DFS on the blue site, though his ownership and potential leverage could create opportunity in the right circumstances. Holiday has seen 38.2 minutes per game and is projected for slightly more in a contest that the Bucks would like to win. He has averaged 17.1 real points per game on 21.2% usage, contributing a 44.2% assist share in the playoffs. Holiday adds 1.6 stocks per game through his solid defense, lending upside to the play. He is an interesting mix-and-match option in multiplier positions on the FanDuel slate where his price pays for low ownership. On DraftKings he is another interesting alternative to superstars in the Captain spot.
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Brook Lopez ($9,300 CPT; $6,200 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) is averaging 0.89 fantasy points per minute in the playoffs after a regular-season average of 0.90. He consumes just 15.7% of the team’s usage in his 30.0 minutes per game during the postseason, contributing 12.8 real points per game and a 20.2% rebounding share. Lopez adds NBA DFS upside through his defense, averaging 2.3 stocks per game in his effort to protect the rim on the Bucks’ end of the floor. Lopez is a solid option for reliable production for a fair price. He makes sense as a lower-owned mix-in play at larger shares than the public is projected for in the lesser multiplier spots on FanDuel. On the DraftKings slate he is largely a Utility option, though exceeding the field while staying at a safe ownership share is not a difficult trick to pull.
Bobby Portis ($4,800 CPT; $3,200 UTIL DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) had a big game in the first contest of this series then largely faded in the second game. Portis scored 11 points on 5-for-8 shooting and grabbed eight rebounds in just 14:42 in Game 1, flashing his per-minute upside. He is averaging just 16.1 minutes for the playoffs and is projected for only 15.6 on the night, so he will have his work cut out in delivering value despite the 0.96 fantasy points per minute for the postseason. Portis was a better play in the regular season, coming in at 1.16 fantasy points per minute across all situations. He has upside, and with the potential production at his price, Portis is in play on both sites.
Pat Connaughton ($6,600 CPT; $4,400 UTIL DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) is averaging 19.7 minutes for the playoffs and is projected for 21.4 minutes tonight. Connaughton puts up just 5.6 real points per game on 10.7% usage, and he has a productive but unspectacular 18.4% rebounding share in the postseason. He went 3-for-3 from 3 in Game 2, scoring 9 real points and providing around an upside game at these minutes. Connaughton is a steady mix-in play at the price, but major upside should not be expected from a player averaging 0.68 fantasy points per minute.
P.J. Tucker ($6,000 CPT; $4,000 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) averages 0.49 fantasy point per minute and is overpriced for his potential production on the FanDuel slate. As a mix-in Utility option on DraftKings for just $4,000, Tucker could potentially scrape by making value in his projected 33.6 minutes. There is simply not much offensive upside to focus on; Tucker averages 27.9 minutes, 4.1 points and 4.5 rebounds translating to a 15.6% rebounding percentage. Tucker consumes just 7.1% of the team’s usage. He is an excellent defensive player, averaging 1.2 stocks per game in the playoffs, but that is not nearly enough NBA DFS production to support his price on the blue site.
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Trae Young ($16,800 CPT; $11,200 UTIL DraftKings/$16,000 FanDuel) is the bellwether for Atlanta; as his performance goes, so goes the fate of the Hawks. Young was spectacular in Game 1 of this series, going 17-for-34 from the field (4-for-13 from 3) and scoring 48 real points in his 41:05, adding seven rebounds and 11 assists in an excellent all-around game. In the Hawks’ dismal Game 2 performance, Young was a shadow of himself, turning the ball over nine times in less than three quarters played. Young came out with more than three minutes remaining in the third after the game was essentially out of reach. He ended the night playing just 28:15 and shooting 6-for-16 from the field (1-for-8 from 3). In addition to the nine turnovers, Young had just three assists and two rebounds, dramatically underperforming NBA DFS expectations. There is plenty of upside and reason to expect a big performance from Young. He appears under-owned in the multiplier spots on the FanDuel slate, though his popularity is far better distributed on DraftKings.
Clint Capela ($12,300 CPT; $8,200 UTIL DraftKings/$11,500 FanDuel) is the Hawks’ second-best option by fantasy points per minute in the playoffs, coming in with a 0.91 average. He is averaging 33.1 minutes per game and is projected for slightly more in the afternoon update. Capela has 9.9 points and 11.9 rebounds per game in the postseason, consuming over 30% of Atlanta’s rebounds compared to just 12.6% of the team’s usage. He is a highly efficient contributor for real basketball and NBA DFS purposes, and he does not need to score to rack up points. Capela adds 1.5 stocks per game in the playoffs and has upside for more on the defensive end.
John Collins ($13,200 CPT; $8,800 UTIL DraftKings/$12,000 FanDuel) was excellent in Game 1 of this series and just steady in the second game with his team getting blown out. In the first game Collins played a full 36:57, largely staying out of foul trouble and racking up 23 real points on 11-for-16 shooting. He also added 15 rebounds. Collins had just a 7.8% assist percentage in the regular season, but there is solid upside in his scoring and rebounding abilities. Collins consumed 21.4% usage across all situations during the regular season but just 16.1% for the playoffs. Collins will be a popular Utility play on DraftKings and FanDuel. He can be mixed into the lesser multiplier spots for some low-owned potential on the latter site.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”06/27/2021″ team=”hawks”]
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($9,900 CPT; $6,600 UTIL DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) is the Hawks’ second leading scorer in the playoffs, coming in with 14.4 points per game despite his struggles with ongoing knee pain. Bogdanovic is making just 30.6% of his 3-point attempts after making more than 43.0% for the regular season. His fantasy points per minute have consequently slipped from a solid 0.97 across all situations in the regular season to just 0.79 for the playoffs. This is impacting Bogdanovic’s price and popularity on both sites, which could be to the benefit of those willing to embrace risk in their NBA DFS lineup builds. Bogdanovic is a solid bet for a full complement of starter’s minutes tonight, and he is a critical piece of the Hawks’ machinery. The team is deep, and they can cover for a slump from such a player from game to game, but over a sustained period they simply need more, and Bogdanovic has the upside to deliver. It makes sense to push the field’s ownership in all situations with this player unless there is news that renders his currently questionable status into an unplayable form.
Kevin Huerter ($11,100 CPT; $7,400 UTIL DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) is expensive on both sites for a player who averages just 0.75 fantasy points per minute in the postseason. Huerter did not earn his price tag in the regular season either, coming in at just a 0.79 rate, and he did not stand out in any meaningful way in the first two games of this series. Huerter is a low-usage player at just 15.8% in the postseason, and he has a 14.4% rebounding share and a 16.0% assist percentage. His upside comes when his shot is falling. Huerter is averaging 11.4 real points per game through the postseason, shooting 38.2% from 3. He has also contributed slightly to hustle stats, adding 1.4 stocks per game to his ledger. He is arguably over-owned for the money on FanDuel, though he is not looking nearly as popular on DraftKings where he should at least provide value in the Utility role.
Danilo Gallinari ($8,400 CPT; $5,600 UTIL DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) is projected for precisely his 24.4-minute average tonight. Gallinari provides steady reliable production with limited upside on most slates. To get to a ceiling score he truly needs to have early shots fall and his volume deliberately increase. Gallinari can be an excellent shooter — he made 40.6% of his threes in the regular season and averaged 13.3 real points in 24 minutes per game — but for the playoffs, Gallinari is averaging just 12.2 points and has been making just 37.9% of his 3-point attempts. On the right night, Gallinari can get hot early and become a key component of a Hawks Game 3 victory. The upside is not out of the question, and Gallinari is an interesting under-owned option on both sites tonight.
Be sure to check out today’s special Live Before Lock before the massive Game Three:
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