This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and I from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
If you have any questions after reading the article, always feel free to DM me in Slack.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Jan. 21
Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks (-1): 229
Los Angeles Lakers
LeBron James is questionable, as usual, while Anthony Davis, Wesley Matthews and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are probable. I am assuming the James plays, since he always does, but this is the only early game on the slate so we will know that information for sure by the time the slate locks.
James and Davis have only averaged 32.3 and 32.2 minutes per game this season, but there is a chance that they play a few additional minutes tonight since this is likely to be a competitive game against one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. While Frank Vogel is looking to manage the playing time of his star players this regular season, he has mostly done so by removing them as early as he can from blowouts rather than limiting their playing time in competitive games. In the Lakers’ most recent competitive game, a two-point loss to the Warriors on Monday, James played 38 minutes and Davis played 37 minutes. James leads the team with a 32.1 percent usage rate this season and has averaged 1.44 DraftKings points per minute while Davis has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute. I think both players are underpriced for this matchup because there is a good chance that they play more minutes than their season average, which is, in large part, what their salary is based on.
Dennis Schroder and Montrezl Harrell are potential tournament targets tonight. They aren’t likely to play as many minutes as James or Davis, but they would both still benefit from a competitive game. Schroder has averaged 31 minutes per game this season and could play 33 or 34 if this game is close, while Harrell has averaged 24.5 minutes per game but frequently loses a few minutes at the end of the game to garbage time. Schroder has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season and Harrell has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute, so they both have the ability to exceed their salaries if they play a few more minutes than usual tonight.
Caldwell-Pope isn’t the most appealing fantasy option, but we should get around 24 minutes tonight at an inexpensive price tag. He has averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute this season and value is difficult to come by on a three-game slate, so he is worth a look as a last piece into your lineup.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James ($9,200), Anthony Davis ($9,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James ($9,500), Anthony Davis ($10,000)
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks aren’t listed on last night’s 8:30 injury report, so I’m assuming that they are fully healthy until I hear otherwise.
Like the Lakers, the Bucks are frequently involved in blowouts which lowers the average minutes of their players. Giannis Antetokounmpo has only averaged 31.8 minutes per game this season, but he played 39.8 minutes against the Nets in a two-point game on Monday and he typically gives us at least 34 or 35 minutes in competitive games. His salary, like the salaries of the Lakers’ stars, clearly factors in his average playing time and leaves him underpriced for competitive games. He has averaged 1.62 DraftKings points per minute this season and leads the team in usage rate and assist rate. He is second to Bobby Portis in rebounding rate as well.
Khris Middleton has been excellent this season, averaging 1.25 DraftKings points per minute with a 25.5 percent usage rate and 25.1 percent assist rate. He is the only player on the team other than Antetokounmpo with a usage rate north of 20 percent and he is second to Antetokounmpo in assist rate. He has averaged 32.6 minutes per game this season but, like Antetokounmpo, he is likely to play a few more minutes tonight if this game is competitive. The matchup against the Lakers is tough as they are one of the best defensive teams in the league, but that is at least partially offset by the expected uptick in playing time.
Antetokounmpo and Middleton are the two priorities from Milwaukee, but we can look to some other players in GPPs as well. Jrue Holiday is the clear third option offensively, as he is third in usage rate and assist rate this season, but he has still averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute and is second on the team with 32.2 minutes per game.
Brook Lopez and Portis are both inexpensive and there is a good chance that at least one of them has a good game. Typically, they don’t play many minutes alongside each other so they are both risky players to roster since their minutes are relatively inconsistent. It is possible that they get some time next to each other in this matchup, however, as the Lakers have a big frontcourt with Anthony Davis playing alongside Marc Gasol or Harrell. Lopez has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute in 27.1 minutes per game this season while Portis has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute in 22.9 minutes per game. Lopez has also been getting more consistent playing time lately with at least 30 minutes in four of his last five games. Donte DiVincenzo has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute and 25.5 minutes per game this season. Like the rest of the starters, there is a good chance that he plays more minutes tonight than he has averaged for the season. He is particularly valuable on FanDuel at only $4,400.
As far as bottom of the barrel value to help fill out our lineup on a three-game slate, we can look to D.J. Augustin or Pat Connaughton. Neither option is likely to score a ton of fantasy points, but they may be able to help you gain points elsewhere in your lineup. Augustin has averaged 18.5 minutes per game and 0.65 DraftKings points per minute this season while Connaughton has averaged 17 minutes per game and 0.97 DraftKings points per minute. I think that Augustin’s per-minute production will increase in the future as his true shooting rate is about five points lower than his career average. There is also room for his assist rate to increase as well.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,500), Khris Middleton ($7,600)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300), Khris Middleton ($8,000), Donte DiVincenzo ($4,400)
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New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz (-7): 216.5
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans aren’t on the 8:30 injury report from last night, so I am assuming that they have the same players available as last game.
Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson are the top two per-minute producers on the Pelicans and both are reasonably priced. The matchup against Utah isn’t a great one, but we obviously have limited options on this slate and both players have high ceilings. Ingram is slightly more appealing if you can afford him because he has a 29.8 percent usage rate and 24.6 percent assist rate whereas Williamson is more scoring dependent. Ingram has also averaged 35 minutes per game compared to 32.6 minutes per game for Williamson. That said, both players are strong options and there is nothing wrong with settling for Williamson if you can’t afford Ingram.
Lonzo Ball was expected to be limited in his first game back from injury and that appeared to be the case as he only played 23 minutes. It looks like he lost between three and four minutes to garbage time at the end of the game, so he was probably allowed to play about 28 minutes. I haven’t seen word on if he will be limited again tonight, but my assumption is that we get 28 to 30 minutes from him if the game is competitive. Normally, this would keep me from having interest in Ball, but he is only $5,500 on DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s only averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season as he isn’t the number one option on this team in any category. Still, he is a good rebounder and great passer, so he is capable of putting together big games when he contributes in every category at once, even though that isn’t the norm. If he is low owned in tournaments, he is worth a look because he is the type of player that has a GPP-winning ceiling despite a relatively low median projection.
Eric Bledsoe is similar to Ball in that his average performance is going to leave something to be desired. He only played about 24 minutes last game and didn’t play in the fourth quarter as Nickeil Alexander-Walker was playing well and stayed on the floor. Bledsoe has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute and, like Ball, his fantasy production is hindered by his teammates. Bledsoe is a quality facilitator and rebounder, but Ingram has taken a step forward as a facilitator this season and Steven Adams and Williamson grab most of the rebounds. Josh Hart is also a good rebounding guard, as is Ball, and Ingram gets his share as well. Basically, Bledsoe has the skillset to produce monster fantasy games but he’s on a team that is going to prevent him from doing so very often. Players like this are appealing tournament targets when they are inexpensive and/or low-owned and can be ignored when they aren’t.
Adams played fewer minutes than I expected against this Utah team on Tuesday. I thought we would see more minutes than normal for Adams against a traditional center in Rudy Gobert, but Adams only played 23.7 minutes to Gobert’s 29.8 and he wasn’t on the floor in the fourth quarter as the Pelicans elected to use Jaxson Hayes and then Williamson against Gobert. I don’t think we necessarily should expect the Pelicans to close small tonight if the game is competitive, but it is at least worth knowing that they tried it last game and there is no guarantee they don’t do so again. Adams is cheap enough that he has some value on a short slate with limited center options, but he is more of a last piece in than a priority for me. I don’t think he is drastically different than Lopez or Harrell at his price point.
One unexciting place that we can look if he is low-owned is Hart. He is only $4,500 on DraftKings with small forward eligibility. He has only averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute this season and has a limited ceiling, but he does have a consistent role and has averaged 28.5 minutes per game. If, for example, a lot of the field is using Donte DiVincenzo in tournaments, pivoting to Hart doesn’t give you a drastically worse range of outcomes even though DiVincenzo projects a little bit better.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Brandon Ingram ($8,500), Zion Williamson ($7,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Brandon Ingram ($8,200), Zion Williamson ($8,000), Steven Adams ($5,200)
Utah Jazz
The Jazz appear to be fully healthy for this game as Derrick Favors is probable and none of the other rotation players are on the injury report.
Donovan Mitchell and Gobert remain underpriced, especially in the context of a three-game slate. Mitchell started the year off slowly, but his true shooting rate is back to within a couple of points of last season’s mark. He has averaged 33.5 minutes per game this season, which leads the team, and we typically get a couple more minutes if the game is competitive. He also leads the team with a 31.9 percent usage rate and he is second with a 25.1 percent assist rate. Overall, he has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Gobert is third on the team with 30.4 minutes per game, but we usually get 33 or 34 if the game is close. Unlike Mitchell, Gobert started the season off unsustainably well and has since come back to Earth. His baseline production is high enough, however, that his regression shouldn’t scare us away from rostering him. He averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute last season and has averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute so far this season. The matchup with Steven Adams isn’t the best, but there is still value at Gobert’s salary.
While Mitchell and Gobert look like the priorities here, we can also consider Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic as mid-range options. Conley has the third highest usage rate on the team at 23.9 percent, but he has only averaged 30 minutes per game this season. He played about 34 minutes against the Clippers on New Year’s Day, but he hasn’t played more than 31 minutes since then and has only exceeded 30 minutes once. He’s averaged a healthy 1.14 DraftKings points per minute this season, but the limited playing time makes it tough to prioritize him at his salary. Bogdanovic started the year off miserably, but he has been getting back to form. For the season, he has a 52.1 percent true shooting rate. For his career, his true shooting rate is 58.8 percent, so I expect that he continues to improve on his number this season. He has averaged 30.2 minutes per game and 0.71 DraftKings points per minute this season but, with improved shooting will come improved per-minute production and, possibly, increased playing time. The Pelicans have allowed the most three-point attempts per game to opponents this season and Bogdanovic is fourth on the team with 6.6 three-point attempts per game. He leads Utah with 3.8 spot-up field goal attempts per game and the Pelicans have allowed the second-most spot-up attempts per game. This sets up as a matchup where Bogdanovic could get more scoring opportunities than usual.
Jordan Clarkson played more minutes than expected last game. Despite Joe Ingles’ return to the lineup, Clarkson played 29.4 minutes. He had averaged about 30 minutes per game without Ingles and about 23 minutes per game with Ingles this season prior to that game. It remains to be seen if Ingles chips away at Clarkson’s playing time moving forward, but he has a high ceiling if he gets close to 30 minutes again as he has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute this season and has the second highest usage rate on the team.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Donovan Mitchell ($7,900), Rudy Gobert ($7,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Donovan Mitchell ($8,200), Rudy Gobert ($8,500)
New York Knicks at Golden State Warriors (-4.5): 214.5
New York Knicks
Alec Burks is probable after not playing since Dec. 27. Austin Rivers is doubtful, so my assumption is that Burks will replace the 16 to 18 minutes that Rivers had played in recent games. Frank Ntilikina is doubtful as well.
Julius Randle and R.J. Barrett continue to play huge minutes for the Knicks and they get a pace-up spot tonight against the Warriors. Both players have averaged 37.1 minutes per game this season. Randle has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute and leads the team in usage rate, rebounding rate and assist rate. He’s expensive, but there really isn’t any reason for him not to be. Barrett is less productive, but also less expensive, with 0.90 DraftKings points per minute and a 23.7 percent usage rate. The Warriors rank in the middle of the pack in defensive rating this season but have played at the league’s third fastest pace.
Elfrid Payton and Immanuel Quickley are risky plays who both have upside at their respective price points. They have only played 22 minutes together this season, so they are negatively correlated. If Payton plays well, Quickley will probably play the low end of his minutes range and vice versa. Payton has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.5 percent usage rate and 22.3 percent assist rate this season while Quickley has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute with a 24 percent usage rate and 25.4 percent assist rate. It makes sense for the Knicks to play Quickley whenever they can since he is their rookie and Payton isn’t a long-term piece, but Tom Thibodeau typically leans heavily on his veterans. Over New York’s last five games, Payton has averaged 28 minutes per game and Quickley has averaged 23 minutes per game. The return of Burks also adds risk to both players, though my assumption for now is that Burks takes more minutes from Bullock than he does from Payton or Quickley.
Mitchell Robinson has averaged 30.4 minutes over his last five games and 30 minutes per game for the season. His per-minute production is down this season with only 0.85 DraftKings points per minute, but it’s good to see him getting more playing time. He is only a secondary tournament option on this slate, but he is in the group with Lopez, Adams and Harrell.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle ($8,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle ($9,000), R.J. Barrett ($6,700)
Golden State Warriors
This is the second night of a back-to-back for Golden State and they hadn’t released their injury report as of 1:30. Andrew Wiggins was questionable last night but was able to play and I’m assuming that he will be available tonight as well.
Stephen Curry leads Golden State with 34.3 minutes per game and 1.38 DraftKings points per minute this season. He has a 31 percent usage rate and 31.7 percent assist rate and is obviously the focal point of the offense. The matchup with the Knicks is unappealing as New York has played at the slowest pace in the league and allowed the fifth-fewest points per 100 possessions this season, but Curry is always one of the highest upside plays on a slate- especially when that slate only has three games.
Kelly Oubre has been playing a little bit better lately after an awful start to the season. He is still struggling with his shot, but it should get better sooner than later. Oubre has a 45.7 percent true shooting rate this season compared to 56 percent last season. He shot 35.2 percent from three last season and has shot only 21.8 percent from three this season. Despite his shooting woes, Oubre has still managed to averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season. Whenever his shot starts to fall, he is going to drastically outperform his salary since he finds ways to produce even without scoring.
Wiggins has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season and is second on the team with 32.6 minutes per game. He played 30.8 minutes in last night’s blowout win and left about four minutes on the table in garbage time, so he wasn’t limited despite being questionable to play in the game. I expect his normal minutes and opportunities again tonight.
Draymond Green and James Wiseman are both reasonable values from the frontcourt despite the unappealing matchup. Green has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute and 27.1 minutes per game this season, but we can expect 30 to 32 minutes if this game is competitive. He doesn’t shoot enough to give us a high ceiling, but he contributes in every category and should have an opportunity for defensive stats against a high-usage player in Julius Randle. Wiseman set career highs in minutes played at 26 and 27 minutes in two games before only playing 13 minutes against the Lakers due to foul trouble. He bounced back last night to play 25.3 minutes against the Spurs so, hopefully, this is what we can expect from Wiseman going forward. He has been productive this season with 1.09 DraftKings points per minute. He grades out as a top value as long as he can stay out of foul trouble tonight.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($9,600), James Wiseman ($4,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($9,800), Kelly Oubre ($5,600), Draymond Green ($5,400), James Wiseman ($4,400)
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