NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Expert Data, Analysis & Strategy

This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Be sure to catch the Awesemo NBA Daily Fantasy Strategy Show every morning on our Awesemo YouTube Channel to find the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel!

I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.

As always, if you have any questions after reading the article, feel free to DM me in Slack.

NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | April 20

Update 1: Kevin Durant and Nicolas Claxton have been ruled out for the Nets. DeAndre Jordan started at center and played 33.5 minutes last night while Blake Griffin played 27.7 minutes off the bench. Both players are viable options tonight, with Jordan being one of the better values at center if he starts again. Kyrie Irving also gets a bump as he has averaged 1.50 DraftKings points per minute in five games without Durant or James Harden this season. The rest of the Nets’ primary rotation players (Jeff Green, Bruce Brown, Landry Shamet) are reasonable targets as well as the Nets will only have nine or ten players tonight.

Update 2: I briefly mentioned it in the article, but Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons and Seth Curry are all questionable. Welcome to late season NBA DFS. There isn’t much to be said right now with this much uncertainty, so be sure to tune into the live shows on the Awesemo YouTube channel leading up to lock for more up to date information.

Update 3: Alec Burks is out, so R.J. Barrett is likely to play as mentioned. Derrick Rose will probably also get 25 to 28 minutes, but the point guard position is stacked so he still only looks like a secondary option.

Point Guard

Russell Westbrook ($10,900 DraftKings/$10,800 FanDuel) faces the Warriors in what is likely to be a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Wizards lead the league in pace over the last month while the Warriors are sixth in pace over that time. Westbrook posted another triple-double on Monday, giving him eight triple-doubles in his last 10 games. He has averaged 37 minutes per game over the last month, which is third most in the NBA, and he has produced 1.66 DraftKings points per minute in 16 games played with Bradley Beal since the All-Star break.

Luka Doncic ($10,800 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) takes on a weak Detroit team. The Pistons are 12th in pace and 20th in defensive rating over the last month and Doncic shouldn’t have any issues against them. The Mavericks’ star has averaged 1.60 DraftKings points per minute with a 35.4 percent usage rate, 12.1 percent rebounding rate and 44.2 percent assist rate in 35 games played with Kristaps Porzingis active this season. He has averaged 35.8 minute per game in those games.

Stephen Curry ($10,500 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel) has been playing out of his mind recently. Over his last 10 games, Curry has averaged 1.65 DraftKings points per minute with a 38 percent usage rate. He has shot 50.3 percent from three and has 75.1% true shooting. For the season, Curry has shot 43.1 percent from three with 66.5 percent true shooting, so his shooting should come back to Earth (or as close to Earth as his shooting ever is) sooner rather than later. While Curry has a favorable matchup against a fast-paced Wizards’ team, it is difficult to prioritize him over Westbrook or Doncic because his salary has increased as a result of his hot shooting. Curry doesn’t rebound at the same rate as either of the other $10,000+ point guards, so he doesn’t offer the same floor since he is more scoring dependent. He has a massive ceiling and that means that works in tournaments if he is relatively low owned, but Westbrook and Doncic look like the better options if not factoring in ownership.

Malcolm Brogdon ($7,700 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) will face the Oklahoma City Thunder and he will be playing without Domantas Sabonis or Myles Turner. Brogdon has only played 72 minutes without either player on the floor this season, but he has a 32.8 percent usage rate over those minutes. In 237 minutes without Sabonis on the floor, ignoring Turner, Brogdon has averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.8 percent usage rate and 32.9 percent assist rate. Over the last two seasons, Brogdon has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute in four total games without Sabonis or Turner. He posted a 30.3 percent usage rate and 34.4 percent assist rate in those games.

Mike Conley ($6,800 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) had a solid game against the Lakers on Monday and gets a more favorable matchup against the Rockets tonight. Conley played 28.5 minutes in Utah’s win and likely would have played about three more minutes had the game been competitive to the end. Conley has now played four games without Donovan Mitchell this season and he has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.3 percent usage rate and 41.7 percent assist rate. Conley has averaged 31.5 minutes per game in those games.

Jordan Clarkson ($6,600 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) played 31.5 minutes off the bench against the Lakers on Monday and he has now averaged 30.3 minutes per game in the four games that he has played alongside Conley without Mitchell this season. Clarkson has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute in those games with a 31.6 percent usage rate. He only has a 2.9 percent assist rate, and while Clarkson isn’t known for his peripherals, that number should increase over a larger sample and allow him to produce at a higher per-minute rate as well.

Reggie Jackson ($5,600 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) played 26.5 minutes last night and Kawhi Leonard will be out again tonight for the Clippers. There has not been an update on Paul George’s status, but he hasn’t played both ends of a back-to-back since March 24th and 25th so there is a chance that he sits out of tonight’s game as well. Jackson has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute and 30.6 minute per game in eight games without Leonard and with George this season. He has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute and 33.3 minutes per game in six games with both players sidelined.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook, Luka Doncic, Malcolm Brogdon, Mike Conley

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook, Luka Doncic, Malcolm Brogdon, Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson

Latest NBA DFS Content

Shooting Guard

Bradley Beal ($9,400 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) continues to be underpriced on FanDuel as they lowered his salary when he was dealing with a nagging hip injury and they haven’t increased it much despite his apparent return to health. Beal has played at least 35 minutes in five straight games after being limited to about 30 minutes for two games in his return from the injury. He has taken at least 21 shots in all five of those games in addition to at least seven free throws in four of them. Overall, Beal has produced 1.28 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.1 percent usage rate in 42 games played alongside Westbrook this season.

Paul George ($9,300 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel) will be a top option tonight if he is available for the Clippers. Keep an eye on his status since he hasn’t played both legs of a back-to-back in nearly a month, but Leonard is out tonight, so if George is able to play, he will project very well. George has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute with a 37.5 percent usage rate and 28 percent assist rate in eight games without Leonard this season.

Joe Ingles ($6,400 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) played 31.7 minutes against the Lakers last game and lost about two minutes to garbage time so he could approach 34 minutes if tonight’s game with the Rockets is competitive. Even if Ingles plays 31 minutes, he projects as a viable option in a favorable matchup. He has averaged 31 minutes per game and 0.96 DraftKings points per minute in four games without Mitchell and with Conley and Clarkson this season.

Terance Mann ($4,500 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel) started in place of Leonard last night and played 24.2 minutes. He has averaged 0.66 DraftKings points per minute in eight games without Leonard and with George active, so he will project as a marginal option if George plays tonight. If George sits, however, it opens the door for Mann to be a viable value option as he has averaged 29.4 minutes per game and 0.74 DraftKings points per minute in six games without George or Leonard this season.

Delon Wright ($4,100 DraftKings/$5,300 PG FanDuel) is close to impossible to roster on FanDuel, but he is an intriguing value option on DraftKings as the Kings take on the Timberwolves. Wright has now played at least 23 minutes in four of his last five games and at least 26 minutes in three straight. Since joining Sacramento, Wright has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute. He is a risky option because there is no guarantee that he plays as many minutes tonight as he has in his last three games — he has only averaged about 21 minutes per game overall with the Kings. But he also has a path to success because there are a variety of ways for him to get increased playing time. He has taken minutes from Tyrese Haliburton recently, but he also stole some minutes from De’Aaron Fox last night. Fox played only 27.6 minutes in the game and Luke Walton said after the game that Fox is dealing with an ankle sprain and he was looking to keep his minutes in check with it being the first game of a back-to-back. Walton lies constantly, so do not read too much into anything that he says. At least there is a possibility that Fox will give up a few minutes to Wright again tonight.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Bradley Beal, Paul George, Joe Ingles

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Bradley Beal, Paul George, Joe Ingles

Small Forward

Michael Porter ($7,900 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) struggled a bit against the Grizzlies in his last game, but he has seen his production increase overall in the games that he has played without Jamal Murray. Porter played about 33 minutes in regulation against Memphis and has averaged about 34 minutes per game in regulation in the nine games that he has played without Murray this season. He has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute in those games with a 21.3 percent usage rate and 14 percent rebounding rate. Small forward is a difficult position to fill tonight and Porter has a favorable matchup against a weak Portland defense.

Anthony Edwards ($7,100 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel) logged 37.9 minutes against Sacramento last night and now gets to run it back in one of the most favorable DFS matchups possible. Edwards is a scoring dependent player, but he is reasonably priced for his playing time in this matchup. Edwards has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.3 percent usage rate in 37 games played with Karl-Anthony Towns active this season.

R.J. Barrett ($6,300 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) has only averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute in 22 games played with Rose and Julius Randle active this season, but he has been playing huge minutes with Alec Burks sidelined. Barrett played 39.7 minutes against the Hornets last night and that was the fewest minutes he has played in his last three games. Burks is questionable for tonight’s game, and if he misses the game, Barrett will project as a strong mid-range option based on the amount of minutes he is likely to play.

Saddiq Bey ($5,500 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) has averaged 29.9 minutes per game over the last month and 29.5 minutes per game in 27 games played without Rose or Griffin and with Jerami Grant active this season. Bey has averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute in those games. While he isn’t a great per-minute producer and he will only play about 30 minutes tonight, the small forward position is weak enough that he offers some value tonight.

Kent Bazemore ($4,300 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel) is a risky option, but if he remains in the starting lineup, he offers upside at this price tag. Kelly Oubre returned to action last game, but Oubre came off the bench and Bazemore started the game. Bazemore only played about 14 minutes, however, as Oubre cut into his playing time and Damion Lee played about 31 minutes off the bench. Relying on secondary players on Golden State is always risky because Steve Kerr rewards the hot hand in his rotations, but that uncertainty also gives Bazemore a relatively high ceiling. If he is playing well, he could get 26-plus minutes. He has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute this season so, if he does get 26-plus minutes, he is likely to pay off his price tag.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Michael Porter, Anthony Edwards, R.J. Barrett (if Burks is out)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Michael Porter, Anthony Edwards, R.J. Barrett (if Burks is out)

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Power Forward

Julius Randle ($10,200 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) leads the NBA with 39 minutes per game over the last month. He has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.3 percent usage rate, 12.7 percent rebounding rate and 27 percent assist rate over that stretch. It’s difficult to prioritize Randle on this slate because there are so many strong pay-up options, but he is a viable option since he should play 40 minutes again tonight.

Draymond Green ($7,100 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) looks like one of the best power forward options as he offers a combination of a strong median projection and a high ceiling in a favorable matchup against the Wizards. Green has played 15 games with Curry and without James Wiseman this season. In those games, Green has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute and 33.5 minutes per game. He has a 12.6 percent rebounding rate and 39.4 percent assist rate while he has also contributed 1.3 blocks per game. One negative for Green is that Kevon Looney is playing a lot of minutes so Green is getting fewer minutes at center where he thrives, but he has still averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute alongside Looney this season and is getting about half of his minutes at center.

Harrison Barnes ($7,100 DraftKings/$6000 FanDuel) has averaged more minutes per game over the last month than every player in the NBA that is not named Julius Randle. Barnes isn’t an exciting per-minute producer, but he does have an exciting matchup against the Timberwolves. In 54 games played alongside Fox this season, Barnes has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute. He looks especially appealing on FanDuel where he is $1,100 less expensive than he is on DraftKings.

Royce O’Neale ($4,500 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) is about as boring a DFS option as you can find, but he does have an appealing matchup against the Rockets. O’Neale has averaged 0.78 DraftKings points per minute and 34 minutes per game in the four games without Mitchell and alongside Conley and Clarkson this season. O’Neale only has only averaged 8.8 points per game in those games, but he has also contributed 7.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.3 blocks per game.

Xavier Tillman ($4,200 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) started in place of Jonas Valanciunas on Monday and put up a big game in 41.2 minutes played (about 31 in regulation). Valanciunas is out again tonight and Tillman is likely to start again in his place. In six starts in place of Valanciunas this season, Tillman has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute and about 25 minutes per game in regulation in the six starts.

Brandon Clarke ($4,000 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel) only played 23.1 minutes against Denver last game but there is the potential for more playing time tonight. Clarke has averaged 26.4 minutes per game in six games without Valanciunas this season and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him reach that number tonight against the Clippers. He has averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute in those games.

Jaden McDaniels ($3,700 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel) continues to start for the Timberwolves. In 18 starts this season, McDaniels has averaged 30.3 minutes per game and 0.69 DraftKings points per minute. While the per-minute production is subpar, the playing time is encouraging and makes him a viable value option in a favorable matchup depending on what other value opens up between now and lock.

Oshae Brissett ($3,100 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) started Indiana’s last game and played 24.7 minutes. Jeremy Lamb was out of that game and Doug McDermott came off the bench. Both of those players are questionable tonight. Wait and see if Brissett remains in the starting lineup, but he has averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute in 25 career games dating back to his time in Toronto. JaKarr Sampson is suspended for tonight’s game as well, so there should be plenty of frontcourt minutes available, and Brissett should play around 25 minutes if he starts again (with the potential for more if McDermott and/or Lamb are out).

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Draymond Green, Xavier Tillman, Brandon Clarke

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes, Xavier Tillman, Brandon Clarke

Center

Nikola Jokic ($11,000 DraftKings/$11,300 FanDuel) has now played nine games without Murray this season. In those games, he has averaged 29.3 points, 11 rebounds and 10.7 assists for 1.87 DraftKings points per minute. Jokic faces a Portland team that is 25th in defensive rating over the last month and he should put up another big game tonight.

Joel Embiid ($10,600 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel) is questionable tonight against the Suns. Simmons, Harris and Seth Curry are also all questionable, so there are a lot of different ways this can break. Be sure to tune into the Deeper Dive at 4:45 EST and Live Before Lock at 6:00 EST for a better breakdown, but for now, if everyone is active Embiid is a strong play as he has averaged 1.57 DraftKings points per minute in 28 games with Simmons and Harris active. He will be a stronger option if the Sixers are short-handed as he has averaged 1.89 DraftKings points per minute in six games without Simmons and 1.87 DraftKings points per minute in seven games without Harris.

Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,400 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel) destroyed the Kings over 36.2 minutes last night and he will get a chance to do so again tonight. Towns has averaged 1.47 DraftKings points per minute this season and he is likely to produce at an above-average rate against the Kings. The biggest factor working against Towns tonight is the opportunity cost at the center position. Both of the similarly priced centers produce more fantasy points per minute and there is an abundance of high-upside value at the position as well.

Rudy Gobert ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) stands out as the top mid-range center option as he takes on the Rockets. Gobert has averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute and 32 minutes per game in four games without Mitchell this season. Overall, he has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute and 31.1 minutes per game. The Rockets have been the least efficient defense over the last month while playing at the 10th-fastest pace. Gobert is likely to have a lot of success tonight.

Hassan Whiteside ($6,200 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) played about 24 minutes against Towns and the Timberwolves last night and should get similar playing time tonight. Whiteside has now started three games this season and has averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute in those games. Overall, he has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute in 35 games played this season. He is a stronger option on FanDuel than DraftKings given the reduced salary.

Goga Bitadze ($4,200 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) started in place of Turner and played 22.8 minutes against the Spurs on Monday. Bitadze dealt with some first half foul trouble and then left the game early with an injury or he would have played more minutes. He is questionable tonight, but if he is able to play he should play 26 to 28 minutes. Bitadze has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute this season and is an especially strong value on DraftKings.

Nerlens Noel ($4,200 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) has started 29 games this season. He has averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute and 27.7 minutes per game in those games. He doesn’t offer the same per-minute production as many of the other center options tonight, but he is underpriced at only $4,200 on DraftKings and is worth a look in tournaments assuming that more ownership will be going to the alternatives.

Kevon Looney ($3,800 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel) has averaged 28 minutes per game and 0.76 DraftKings points per minute in five starts since James Wiseman’s most recent injury. Tonight’s matchup against the Wizards is likely to allow Looney to produce at an above-average rate and he should get another 28 to 30 minutes, as the Wizards play a center for 48 minutes on most nights.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid (Q), Rudy Gobert, Goga Bitadze (Q)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid (Q), Rudy Gobert, Hassan Whiteside

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Author

Adam Scherer

Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].