This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS picks article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA daily fantasy picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
As always, if you have any questions after reading the article, feel free to DM me in Slack.
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | June 3
Point Guard
Damian Lillard ($10,300 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) is expensive, but it is only a two-game slate, and he is facing the Nuggets in an elimination game. We can expect huge minutes from Lillard tonight after he played 51.7 minutes in Tuesday’s double overtime loss. He has played at least 40 minutes in every game of the series except for Game 4’s blowout win. So far this postseason, Lillard has averaged 1.52 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.7 percent usage rate and 40.1 percent assist rate.
Chris Paul ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) only played 23 minutes in the Suns’ easy win over the Lakers on Tuesday, but he should be able to play more tonight assuming the game is competitive. There is still some risk here since we know that he is playing through an injury, but he played about 32 minutes two games ago and then played about 17 minutes in the first half last game. He left the game early, but my assumption is that had more to do with the score and precaution than anything else as the Suns were up about 35 points at the time. Paul has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute in this series, which can at least partly be attributed to the nagging injury. During the regular season, however, he averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute so there is upside for much more production if his shoulder is feeling better. Paul is currently projected for 32.18 DraftKings points in the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections tonight.
Dennis Schroder ($5,900 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) has struggled so far in the postseason, averaging just 0.73 DraftKings points per minute. He has a 20.6 percent usage rate and 15.7 percent assist rate, and it isn’t surprising to see him take more of a back seat to LeBron James than he did during the regular season. Still, we have typically seen about 34 minutes from Schroder in competitive games and there are only two games on this slate so we can’t be quite as picky as on other slates this postseason. Schroder averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute with a 21 percent usage rate and 19.9 percent assist rate in 26 games alongside Anthony Davis (questionable) and James during the regular season. In 14 games played without Davis and with James, Schroder averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.9 percent usage rate and 22 percent assist rate.
Monte Morris ($4,700 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) is an appealing value option on DraftKings, though he is much more expensive on FanDuel. Morris played 31.3 minutes in regulation last game and has now averaged 26.8 minutes per game in the postseason. Morris has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute with a 21 percent usage rate and 26.2 percent assist rate. The Nuggets closed their last game with a lineup that had both of Morris and Austin Rivers with Facundo Campazzo on the bench. It is relatively unlikely that we see the same closing lineup tonight, but Morris is likely to be in the closing lineup over Campazzo or Rivers as long as he is playing well.
Top DraftKings Picks: Damian Lillard, Chris Paul, Monte Morris
Top FanDuel Picks: Damian Lillard, Chris Paul
Shooting Guard
Devin Booker ($8,200 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel) played well in his most recent game, scoring 30 points to go along with 7 rebounds and 5 assists in only about 33 minutes of play as he didn’t need to play the fourth quarter of the Suns’ win. Booker has played huge minutes this postseason, logging 45, 40, 41 and 39 minutes in the first four games of the series. He has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.2 percent usage rate and 24.1 percent assist rate. The matchup against the Lakers is difficult, which explains the decrease in production from the 1.14 DraftKings points per minute that Booker averaged during the regular season, but he still offers value at his price tag because of how many minutes he will play. He also is certainly capable of outperforming his average production by a wide margin if he is shooting better than normal because he will be one of the slate leaders in field goal attempts.
C.J. McCollum ($7,600 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) remains underpriced tonight against Denver. McCollum played about 41 minutes in regulation last game and played 36, 38 and 41 minutes in the other three games that were relatively competitive in this series. While McCollum’s production takes a bit of a hit in the postseason thanks to Lillard playing more minutes and taking on an even bigger role, McCollum still enters tonight’s game with a 24.5 percent usage rate and 17.8 percent assist rate in 40.2 minutes per game so far this series. He has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute in those games. Tonight, McCollum is coming in as the No. 3 overall projected value play in our daily fantasy basketball projections.
Austin Rivers ($4,500 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) closed last game for Denver and then played both overtimes, finishing at about 47 minutes. His playing time has been inconsistent in this series. He has played 33, 20, 37, 24 and 37 minutes in regulation. The volatility is nice at a cheap salary, however, because it can be difficult to find inexpensive players that have the potential to play 36-plus minutes in the playoffs. Rivers isn’t a great fantasy producer, so you’ll need to get somewhat lucky on his playing time and his production if you roster him, but he projects as a reasonable point-per-dollar value tonight. So far in the postseason, he has averaged 0.69 DraftKings points per minute and 30.4 minutes per game excluding overtimes.
Top DraftKings Picks: Devin Booker, C.J. McCollum
Top FanDuel Picks: Devin Booker, C.J. McCollum
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”06/03/2021″ team=”lakers”]
Small Forward
LeBron James ($10,100 DraftKings/$10,600 FanDuel) is going to need to step up and win the game for the Lakers, especially if Anthony Davis is unable to play. James has had a pedestrian postseason so far from a DFS perspective, averaging just 1.26 DraftKings points per minute in 36.4 minutes per game. While that is solid production, James averaged 1.48 DraftKings points per minute in games with Davis active during the regular season and 1.51 DraftKings points per minute in games without Davis, so it is a significant decrease in production. Still, James should do everything that he can to take over this game and will the Lakers into a Game 7. If Davis is active, it slightly decreases James’ ceiling, but he would still project as one of the top options on the slate.
Michael Porter Jr. ($6,900 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) had a huge game in Game 5 after struggling through the first four games of the series. With the exception of Game 4, Porter has been getting enough playing time and opportunities to contribute in DFS, he just hasn’t been shooting the ball well. Whenever a player is getting minutes and similar opportunities to the regular season but is producing at a lower rate because they’re missing shots, it is a good time to roster them in DFS if their price is falling. That is the case with Porter, who is at his lowest salary of the series on DraftKings and is affordable on FanDuel as well. He has now averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute in the postseason, but he averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute in 23 games without Jamal Murray during the regular season so there is still room for regression. At this salary, Porter is unquestionably the top value play on DraftKings in the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections.
Norman Powell ($5,800 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) came back down to Earth last game as he produced only 18.5 DraftKings points in 51 minutes of action. The playing time is much more important than his production in any given game, and he should play another 36-plus minutes tonight. He has averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute in 32 games played with the Blazers this season including the postseason.
Mikal Bridges ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) has only averaged 0.66 DraftKings points per minute in the postseason, but he averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season. He has also played 33 minutes per game in the postseason — and that number would be higher had the last game been competitive. Bridges isn’t an exciting option, but he does offer value at his salary based on the expectation that he will play at least 34 or 35 minutes if tonight’s game is competitive.
Top DraftKings Picks: LeBron James, Michael Porter
Top FanDuel Picks: LeBron James, Michael Porter
Power Forward
Anthony Davis ($9,400 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) is listed as questionable tonight after missing the Lakers’ last game. I have no idea if he is going to play, but it is an elimination game for the Lakers so I assume that he will if he is able. Davis averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute in the first four games of the series prior to his injury and he produced 1.32 DraftKings points per minute in 27 games alongside James this season. He will be a risky option even if he is able to play since we won’t truly know his health, but he would most likely be available at low ownership and worth the risk on a two-game slate.
If he sits, there are a variety of ways that the Lakers can go. We didn’t get a good feel for it last game since it was a blowout. Markieff Morris started the game but didn’t play at all in the second half as Alex Caruso replaced him in the lineup to start the third quarter. Kyle Kuzma only played 22.6 minutes, but he would be another candidate for increased playing time if Davis sits.
Robert Covington ($5,100 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) finally gave us the big game that we had been waiting for last time out and he is still affordable — especially on DraftKings. Covington averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute in 34 games played with Lillard, McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic during the regular season and he has averaged 0.66 DraftKings points per minute so far in the postseason. The reason that he offers value isn’t so much his per-minute production as it is his playing time. He played about 36 minutes in regulation last game and has averaged about 36.5 minutes per game in the postseason (excluding overtimes). Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball stat projections have Covington coming in right around the 37-minute mark, so another big game could be in play here.
Aaron Gordon ($5,300 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) offers better per-minute production than Covington with 0.84 DraftKings points per minute this postseason, but he doesn’t play as many minutes. Gordon played about 28 minutes in regulation last game and has averaged about 28 minutes per game in regulation this postseason. There is always the potential that he plays more minutes in any given game since he can do a variety of things well, but the Nuggets have seemed intent on keeping him around 28 minutes in most games so far. Still, he is inexpensive, so he is a decent value at his current salary and has the upside for more.
Jae Crowder ($4,900 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) had a disappointing game at high ownership last game after a monster game at low ownership in the previous game. The truth is that nothing really has changed for him throughout this series so we shouldn’t let his most recent performances persuade us whether or not to roster him. Crowder has averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute and 30.6 minutes per game in the postseason. He has lost some playing time to foul trouble and blowouts, and he is capable of giving us 34 or 35 minutes if he happens to avoid foul trouble in a competitive game as we saw in Game 4. Crowder averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute in the regular season, so his postseason production is in line with expectations. Crowder is a volatile option because he is the fourth or fifth scoring option on his team, but he is inexpensive for the playing time he will receive. He is the type of player that I typically end up underweight on in large field GPPs if he is popular and overweight if he is not because it just isn’t possible to know which nights he will do well and which nights he won’t, but we do know he will have the opportunity to do so based on his playing time.
Carmelo Anthony ($4,100 DraftKings/$4,200 FanDuel) has only produced 0.77 DraftKings points per minute this postseason, but he does have a 22.2 percent usage rate and he has averaged about 23 minutes per game in regulation. We can’t have much confidence in Anthony, but it is a two-game slate and his playing time has been relatively stable. He certainly isn’t the same scorer that he used to be, but he can still come through with a big game from time to time and he isn’t shy about trying.
JaMychal Green ($3,300 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel) is getting a mention solely because of his price tag. Green has averaged 19.2 minutes per game and 0.77 DraftKings points per minute in the postseason. His usage rate and rebounding rate are down from the regular season, but he has still offered decent per-minute production. Paul Millsap has been the more productive frontcourt player off the bench, but Green’s playing time has consistently outpaced Millsap’s. Green can be a useful value option tonight, but be cognizant of his ownership because he isn’t the type of player that you should feel scared to fade if he is popular in large field GPPs.
Top DraftKings Picks: Robert Covington, Aaron Gordon, Jae Crowder
Top FanDuel Picks: Robert Covington, Aaron Gordon, Jae Crowder
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Center
Nikola Jokic ($10,700 DraftKings/$10,800 FanDuel) looks like the best pay-up option again tonight against the Blazers. Jokic has averaged 1.60 DraftKings points per minute through the first five games of the postseason after producing 1.73 DraftKings points per minute in 24 games played without Jamal Murray. Jokic has averaged about 33 minutes per game in regulation this series, but he should play about 36 minutes if tonight’s game is competitive.
Jusuf Nurkic ($7,300 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) has dealt with foul issues in this series which has kept his playing time down. Nurkic has fouled out of three of the five games, playing 25, 32 and 24 minutes in those games. He played 33 minutes in Game 1 and 27 minutes in three quarters of the Game 4 blowout. Nurkic has the potential to break the slate open if he avoids foul trouble and gives us 33 or 34 minutes, but we also can’t discount that he has only averaged 28 minutes per game in the series because of fouls. He has been productive when on the floor, producing 1.23 DraftKings points per minute. I give a slight edge to Deandre Ayton at this price point based on playing time, but don’t hesitate to pivot to Nurkic in tournaments if he is projected for lower ownership as the range of outcomes is very similar.
Deandre Ayton ($7,700 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) only played 27.3 minutes in his last game as he didn’t need to step on the floor in the fourth quarter. That shouldn’t dissuade us from rostering him tonight, as he has played huge minutes this postseason. Ayton played 37, 42, 41 and 38 minutes in the first four games of the series. He has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute, so, if he avoids foul trouble and a blowout tonight, he projects as a strong value. Ayton is likely to lead the slate in rebounds, and the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball stat projections have him as the top-projected rebounder at 12.5 tonight.
Top DraftKings Picks: Nikola Jokic, Deandre Ayton
Top FanDuel Picks: Nikola Jokic, Deandre Ayton
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